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05/24/2026 17:24
Release： 05/24/2026 17:24
Update： 05/24/2026 17:24
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Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
Since the burst of the bubble in the 1990s, I have remained involved in financial markets up to the present, having experienced various aspects of stocks, bonds, foreign exchange, and derivatives markets. My career began at a Japanese securities company. I engaged in market making for domestic bonds and foreign-currency-denominated bonds for clients, gaining practical experience that accounted for interest rate, exchange rate, and credit risk. Later, at a foreign securities firm, I handled marketing for hedge funds and the formation of new funds, involving institutional investors' investment strategies, product design, and risk management. After becoming independent, I have continued to pursue systematic trading in the Nikkei 225 futures as my main arena, not relying solely on discretionary judgment. Currently, by combining Dow Theory, multi-timeframe analysis, moving averages, price structure, supply and demand, and volatility, I pursue reproducible trading decisions. From my long-standing market experience and practical futures trading perspective, I will share market analysis centered on Nikkei 225 futures, trading scenarios, and market viewpoints. The market is always changing, but I believe that what matters is not “to predict accurately,” but to predefine “at which moments and under what conditions to take which actions” in advance. I hope this blog will be a help for readers’ market understanding and trading decisions.
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NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-25 06:24

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: May 24, 2026 07:11 JST / Night Session
Current Value: 63,280 JPY / For intraday session
Subject: NK225 Futures / 4H・1H・15m / Dow Theory Indicator

1. Trend Table

SW1｜15m
Trend
Reset
Wave
Downward wave
Turning price
63,480 JPY ↑
Push low
62,660 JPY ●
Pullback high
---
SW2｜1H
Trend
Upward
Wave
Upward wave
Turning price
63,190 JPY ↓
Push low
62,860 JPY ●
Pullback high
---
SW3｜4H
Trend
Reset
Wave
Upward wave
Turning price
62,070 JPY ↓
Push low
---
Pullback high
63,860 JPY ●

● = held / ✕ = close below, break confirmed / ↑ = breakout bullish / ↓ = breakdown bearish. Judgments prioritize closing price confirmation.

2. Important Price Ranges

64,000–64,300 JPY
Upper target | After breaking 63,860
Next upside target if closing above 63,860. Breakout-following target zone.
63,860 JPY
4H｜Major pullback high
Major resistance in the timeframe. A close above may facilitate assessing continuation of 4H upward movement.
63,810 JPY
Most recent high
Previous peak reached during rally; did not reach 63,860, and was initially capped.
63,500–63,480 JPY
15m｜Short-term pullback high / trigger for upward resumption
If recovered at close, 15m is more likely to return to upward wave from a downward wave.
63,280 JPY
Near current price | Short-term support line
Current price vicinity. Whether it holds informs continuation of pullbacks or a premature short-term pullback.
63,180–63,190 JPY
15m・1H | Short-term maintenance line
Closing below weakens near-term upward wave; expect adjustment toward 62,860
62,860 JPY
15m・1H | Pullback low
Breaking this would indicate pullback-low breakdown; also important for 1H upward structure maintenance.
62,550–62,720 JPY
1H | Deep pullback candidate
Next pullback candidate after break of 62,860; watch for bounce.
62,080 JPY
1H | Mid-term maintenance line
Close to a starting point of strong upward move; break below significantly reduces bullish continuation.
61,800–61,020 JPY
4H・1H | Lower bound
Lower price target after break of 62,080. Until 61,020 is broken, large 1H upward structure remains viable.

3. 4H Analysis

From 59,340, strong rebound observed toward the major 4H pullback high near 63,860. Recently rose to 63,810 but failed to reach 63,860; current price is around 63,280.

In 4H, upward movement continues, but until a close above 63,860 is achieved, do not confirm a large-scale upward restart. If breached, upward continuation becomes easier to evaluate; if stalling near 63,860 again, be cautious of a potential pullback after a strong rebound.


4. 1H Analysis

1H maintains an upward structure with 62,860 as a pullback low. After rising to 63,810, it has pulled back to 63,280.

1H remains biased toward buying, but since 63,860 is not cleared, expect some high-price consolidation. Restoration above 63,480 would test 63,810–63,860 again. Conversely, breaking 63,180 would shift focus back to testing 62,860.


5. 15m Analysis

The 15m is currently entering a downward wave. After a rise to 63,810, it has pulled back to 63,280, indicating short-term upside pause.

If 63,480 is recovered at close, it would imply a return to the uptrend. If closing below 63,180, expect a move toward 62,860.


6. Conclusion

During the intraday session, observe whether 1H can maintain its uptrend structure and breach 63,860. Preferred buys are at 63,280–63,180, or on a held pullback at 62,860. A recovery of 63,480 signals renewed upside; breaking 63,180 suggests a short-term pullback; breaking 62,860 shifts to a pullback-low breakdown scenario.

7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas


Subject: Night Session

Previous Idea 1: Breakout-following
Conditions
Recover 63,460 at 15m close and recover 63,860 at 1H close.
Result
Early night tested 63,180 and pulled to 62,860. Rebounded to recover 63,460 and rose to 63,810, but did not reach 63,860; 1H close at 63,860 was not achieved.
Assessment
Early entry valid; full position not achieved. Target 1 (63,860) not reached; Target 2 also not achieved. After 63,460 recovery, price moved higher but stalled near the 4H major pullback high.
Previous Idea 2: Pullback Buy
Conditions
Pullback to 63,280–63,180 or 62,720–62,550 and then form reversal. Shallow pullback condition includes 63,460 recovery.
Result
Night early traded below 63,280–63,180, then bounced at 62,860. Recovered to 63,460 and rose to 63,810.
Assessment
Pullback-buy idea valid. However, the required 63,860 1H close recovery was not achieved. Target 1 not reached; price faced resistance near 63,860.
Previous Idea 3: Rally-back Sell
Conditions
Rally capped between 63,460–63,860. Shallow pullback condition is a break of 63,180 on 15m close.
Result
Night start saw price capped near 63,460 and then broke 63,180 to 62,860. Recovered and returned to 63,460.
Assessment
Early entry valid. Break of 62,550 on 1H close not achieved. Target 1 (62,720–62,550) not reached; 63,460 recovered; rally-back term ended. MFE protection range achieved.
Previous Idea 4: Break of Push Low
Conditions
Close below 63,180 to confirm breakdown of push-low.
Result
63,180 breach occurred, price fell to 62,860. However 62,550 break on 1H close did not occur. Subsequently recovered to 63,460.
Assessment
Early entry valid. Full position not achieved. Target 1 (62,080) not reached; pullback-low breakdown ended with 63,460 recovery. In practice, use only one of these signals at a time.

8. MTF State

4H: Reset / Upward Wave
Status
Rebound from 59,340 continues toward 63,860 major pullback high; closing above has not been achieved.
Judgment
Until a close above 63,860, large-scale upward restart is not confirmed.
Key Line
Up: 63,860, 64,000 / Down: 62,860, 62,080, 61,800
Upside Conditions
Close above 63,860.
Downside Conditions
Adjust toward 62,080 from a break of 62,860.
1H: Upward / Upward Wave
Status
Maintains an upward structure with 62,860 as pullback low.
Judgment
Buying bias remains, but be cautious of stall near 63,860.
Key Lines
Up: 63,480・63,810・63,860 / Down: 63,180・62,860・62,080
Upside Conditions
Recovery of 63,480 then test 63,810–63,860 again.
Downside Conditions
Break 63,180 to test 62,860 again; further break extends the pullback.
15m：Reset / Downward Wave
Status
Downward wave from 63,810. Current price around 63,280 tests near-term support.
Judgment
Recovery of 63,480 brings back the upward wave; break of 63,180 indicates short-term adjustment.
Key Lines
Up: 63,480・63,810 / Down: 63,180・62,860
Upside Conditions
Recover 63,480 at 15m close.
Downside Conditions
Break 63,180 at 15m close.

Overall Judgement

MTF overall: 1H remains in uptrend, 15m showing pullback from high territory, 4H awaiting 63,860 breakout. For the next day, use pullbacks as main ideas, but switch to an adjustment scenario if 63,180 or 62,860 break.

9. Trade Ideas

① Breakout-following
  • Priority:Secondary primary
  • Activation Conditions:Recover 63,480 on 15m close and continue toward 63,810–63,860 on close
  • Early Entry:63,480 close recovery (15m)
  • Main Entry:63,860 close recovery (1H)
  • Judgment:15m leading / 1H confirmation to complete position
  • Early Stop-Loss:Close below 63,180 (15m)
  • Position Stop-Loss:Close below 63,480
  • Target 1:63,810–63,860
  • Target 2:64,000–64,300
  • MFE Protection:If MFE reaches +200, move to breakeven or small profit; at +300, secure at least +100 or start trailing. Near 63,860, protect profits early.

Evaluation:
Recovery of 63,480 on 15m returns from down wave to up wave. If 63,860 is breached on 1H close, consider it a full breakout and evaluate upside more seriously.

② Pullback Buy
  • Priority:Primary
  • Standard Conditions:Bounce from 63,280–63,180 or 62,860–62,720
  • Shallow Pullback Condition:Even if pullback zone not reached, recover 63,480 at 15m close
  • Early Entry:63,480 close recovery (15m)
  • Main Entry:63,860 close recovery (1H)
  • Judgment:15m leading / 1H confirmation to complete position
  • Early Stop-Loss:Close below 62,860 (15m)
  • Position Stop-Loss:Close below 63,480
  • Complete Exit:Close below 62,080
  • Target 1:63,810–63,860
  • Target 2:64,000–64,300
  • MFE Protection:If MFE reaches +200, move to breakeven or small profit; at +300, secure at least +100 or start trailing. In high-price zones, protect profits before target reached.

Evaluation:
Primary idea is pullback-buy. With 1H uptrend intact, as long as 63,180–62,860 is held, prioritize buy re-entry conditions over selling.

③ Rally-back Sell
  • Priority:Secondary
  • Standard Conditions:Sell when price is capped between 63,480–63,860
  • Shallow Rally Condition:If pullback zone not reached, break 63,180 on 15m close
  • Early Entry:63,180 close break (15m)
  • Main Entry:62,860 close break (1H)
  • Judgment:15m leading / 1H confirmation to complete position
  • Early Stop-Loss:63,480 close recovery (15m)
  • Position Stop-Loss:63,180 close recovery
  • Strong Invalid:Close above 63,860
  • Target 1:62,860–62,720
  • Target 2:62,550–62,080
  • MFE Protection:If MFE reaches +200, move to breakeven or small profit; at +300, secure at least +100 or start trailing. In higher timeframes, protect profits earlier.

Evaluation:
If price stalls near 63,860 close, this targets a pullback. Because higher-timeframe structure remains bullish, rally-back is considered secondary; avoid forcing sales before 63,180 break.

④ Break of Push Low
  • Priority:Secondary
  • Activation Condition:Close below 62,860
  • Early Entry:62,860 close break (15m)
  • Main Entry:62,080 close break (1H)
  • Judgment:15m leading / 1H confirmation to complete position
  • Early Stop-Loss:63,180 close recovery (15m)
  • Position Stop-Loss:62,860 close recovery
  • Complete Exit:63,480 close recovery
  • Target 1:62,550–62,080
  • Target 2:61,800–61,020
  • MFE Protection:If MFE reaches +200, move to breakeven or small profit; at +300, secure at least +100 or start trailing. If break below push lows and trades don’t complete, protect early.

Evaluation:
63,860 is the 1H・15m push-low; breaking it weakens near-term upside. However, the large upward structure in the 1H remains intact until 61,020 is breached, so judgments should be incremental.

Current Priority

  • Primary: ② Pullback Buy
  • Secondary Primary: ① Breakout-following
  • Secondary: ③ Rally-back Sell
  • Secondary: ④ Break of Push Low

10. Current Actions

During the day, monitor whether price stops the decline at 63,280–63,180 or holds 62,860 and rebounds. For buys, focus on 63,480 recovery first, then 63,860 on 1H close to complete the position.

If price falls below 63,180, expect a short-term pullback. If below 62,860, consider the break of push-low type and anticipate a move toward 62,080.

11. Points to Note

63,860 is the major 4H pullback high; until a close above this level, upward restart is not confirmed. Near 63,860, profit-taking and pullback selling tend to appear.

Conversely, since 1H remains in an uptrend, avoid easy reverse-signal shorts until 63,180 or 62,860 break is confirmed. Do not judge based on wicks alone.

12. About This Report

This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across 4H / 1H / 15m timeframes.

It organizes market context, key price levels, and trade ideas based on closing-price swing structure, push lows, pullback highs, and turning prices.

※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
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