Shall I get ready to pick up the “bottom” that dropped sharply due to intervention?

I will explain the current market in a simple way by comparing it to a hand in a Trump card game.
To state the conclusion first: the overall mood is that it may still rise (yen weakening), but the risk of a sharp crash the moment it surpasses 160 yen due to a government hit (intervention) is right in front of us.

1. Will it go up or down? (Which momentum is stronger?)
Basic topology (upward)
Because U.S. inflation is not easing at all, there are rumors that “the United States may raise rates again.” With the interest rate gap between Japan and the U.S. widening, the overwhelmingly large number of people want to buy dollars and sell yen (i.e., the yen to rise). With the current around 159.20 yen, 160 yen is just ahead.
The risk of a sudden drop (downward)
The moment it touches the big 160 yen threshold, the Japanese government is very likely to press the button for “foreign exchange intervention (vigorous yen buying)” and forcibly push the rate down by about 2–5 yen.

2. What are the probabilities of rising or falling?
There are no official probabilities, but if you translate professional moves and market order flow into percentages, the following image emerges.

Gradual rise — about 60%
The basic trend. Up to just before 160 yen, or a cautious move to break through 160 yen.

A sharp crash — about 30%
The moment it exceeds 160 yen (or looks like it will), government intervention comes in and drags it down forcibly.

No movement like this — about 10%
Waiting for important U.S. indicators later this week (e.g., PCE Deflator on Friday), so the market stays at around the 159 yen level to observe.

? This week's strategy
The mood is to ride the “upward trend” and go long (buy), butAs you approach 160 yenthe probability of hitting a landmine (intervention) jumps.
If you’re chasing upside, the safest approach is to keep your position thin so you can escape at any time, or be prepared to grab the “bottom” after a sharp drop caused by intervention.