【Dollar-Yen】This week did not move｜Next week there is a possibility of a large move due to a rebound

The USD/JPY is currently around 159.2.

This week ended up being a market with little movement. It stayed in a range around the 159 yen level, unable to break clearly above or below.

But after a week of “storing energy” like this, next week often sees a big move. Energy is accumulating.

Signs of a pullback appear on the daily chart

Take a look at the daily chart.

It fell from 160 to 155, then rose back to 159, and has since stagnated again. This pattern looks like a “pause after a rebound, before the next decline starts.”

The moving averages are also becoming nearly flat. If they turn downward from here, the downside trend could accelerate again.

Long positions investors should be cautious in this situation.

Initial target is the low to mid-158 range

If the market pulls back next week, first attention will be on the low-to-mid 158s.

This level has recently functioned as support multiple times. It’s a point where sellers take profits and buyers enter on pullbacks.

There is a good chance of a strong rebound in the low-to-mid 158s. But that does not mean the “downtrend is over.”

Even if it rebounds, the overall direction remains towardsyen strength

As I have written many times, I’ll say it again.

Even if there is a rebound in the low-to-mid 158s, that rebound is viewed as a “pullback within a downtrend.”

The 160 level triple top, the Hojo window (148–149 yen), the Bank of Japan’s stance on rate hikes, and expectations of U.S. rate cuts — this setup has not changed.

There may be short-term up and down fluctuations, but the big trend remains toward yen appreciation. This view remains unchanged.

Next week’s strategy

If you’re holding positions for a long time, the basic stance is to be short.

・Scale into shorts by aiming for the upper 159s to around 160
・If it falls to the low 158s, consider taking profits
・Rebound longs in the low 158s should be short-term only. No chasing
・In a range-bound market, don’t force positions

If the market is not moving like this week, do nothing. When it starts moving next week, ride the trend. There’s no need to rush.

Summary

・This week was mostly flat. Next week could move sharply in reaction
・Signs of a pullback on the daily chart. Longs, beware
・Target is the low-to-mid 158s
・Even if it rebounds, the overall direction remains yen-strength
・Basic stance is to be short. This view remains unchanged

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