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カタナ
05/22/2026 03:29
Release： 05/22/2026 03:29
Update： 05/22/2026 03:29
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
System trader of Nikkei 225 futures. After gaining various trading experiences at Japanese and foreign securities firms, went independent in 2013. Since then, began with discretionary trading focused on Nikkei 225 futures. In order to reduce the adverse effects of human psychology on trading, moved through systematic trading and now conducts fully automated system trading.
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NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-22 16:30

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: May 22, 2026 15:45 JST / Day session close
Current Price: 63,340 JPY / For Night Session
Subject: NK225 Futures / 4H・1H・15m / Dow Theory Indicator

1. Trend Table

SW1｜15m
Trend
Uptrend
Wave
Rising wave
Reversal Price
63,180 JPY ↓
Pullback Low
63,180 JPY ●
Return High
---
SW2｜1H
Trend
Uptrend
Wave
Rising wave
Reversal Price
62,080 JPY ↓
Pullback Low
61,020 JPY ●
Return High
---
SW3｜4H
Trend
Flat
Wave
Rising wave
Reversal Price
61,020 JPY ↓
Pullback Low
---
Return High
63,860 JPY ●

●＝Holding / ✕＝Close break already occurred / ↑＝Break above indicates rising reversal / ↓＝Break below indicates falling reversal. Judgments prioritize close confirmation.

2. Important Price Ranges

63,860 JPY
4H｜Major Return High
Most important resistance in the May high area. Until a close above this level, the 4H remains in a return phase rather than a renewed uptrend.
63,460 JPY
15m｜Intraday High
Intraday session’s high reached. Whether night session can reclaim this level is the first condition for continued short-term uptrend.
63,280 JPY
1H｜Support candidate after breakout
Old resistance zone broken to the upside intraday. Night session will test whether it can hold as a pullback candidate.
63,180 JPY
15m｜Most Recent Pullback Low
Maintenance line for short-term uptrend. A close below this level would temporarily invalidate the 15m rising wave.
62,720〜62,550 JPY
1H｜Deep Pullback Candidate
Deep pullback after strong rise; a rebound from here would make renewed upside more likely.
62,080 JPY
1H・15m｜Mid-term Maintenance Line
Crucial line near the origin of the intraday rise. If broken, the view of ongoing upside weakens significantly.
61,840 JPY
4H｜Old Overbought Candidate
After rise, acts as a support test candidate. Once 62,080 JPY is breached, next lower target appears.
61,020 JPY
1H｜Pullback Low
Important pullback low for the 1H uptrend. Until breached, the 1H uptrend remains intact.

3. 4H Analysis

The 4H has remained with 63,860 JPY as the return high, rebounding sharply from 59,340 JPY. The current price is 63,340 JPY, approaching the major return high of 63,860 JPY.

Although there is a strong bounce in the 4H, the uptrend cannot be deemed confirmed until a close above 63,860 JPY. A break above here would be viewed as a renewed breakout in the May high area. Conversely, if stalling near 63,860 JPY occurs, be cautious of a correction after a strong bounce.


4. 1H Analysis

The 1H is rising with 61,020 JPY as the pullback low. Breaks above 62,080 JPY, 62,550 JPY, and 63,280 JPY were achieved, with intraday reaching 63,460 JPY.

The 1H is clearly biased to buying, but 63,860 JPY remains a nearby major return high. Night session focus: can 63,280–63,180 JPY be maintained to resume higher, or will gains be capped near 63,860 JPY?


5. 15m Analysis

The 15m shows an uptrend and rising wave. After breaking above the 62,300 JPY level intraday, it reached 63,280 JPY and then 63,460 JPY.

The most recent pullback low is 63,180 JPY. As long as this level is held, the short-term upside remains in effect. If the close falls below 63,180 JPY, a pullback toward 62,720–62,550 JPY is expected.


6. Conclusion

Night session centers on the continuation of the 1H and 15m uptrends, watching whether 63,860 JPY can be broken. Prioritize pullback-buy setups, focusing on maintaining 63,280–63,180 JPY to push higher. If a close above 63,860 JPY occurs, expect upside continuation; if 63,180 JPY is breached, prepare for a short-term correction.

7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas


Target: Intraday session

Previous ① Breakout-tracking type
Condition
Recovery of 62,300 JPY by 15m close, and recovery of 62,550 JPY by 1H close.
Result
Recovered to 62,300 JPY early intraday, then broke above 62,550–62,720 JPY. Also breached 63,280 JPY, with intraday high reaching 63,460 JPY.
Evaluation
Valid. Target 1 of 62,550–62,720 and Target 2 of 63,280 were both reached. Breakout-tracking was the most effective.
Previous ② Pullback-buy type
Condition
Pull back to 62,080–61,840 JPY, or 61,360–61,020 JPY and form a rebound. Shallow pullback condition: recover to 62,300 JPY.
Result
Deep pullback not formed as standard, but recovery to 62,300 JPY led to continued rise to 63,460 JPY.
Evaluation
Valid as shallow pullback continuation type. Not standard condition but reached Target 1 and Target 2.
Previous ③ Retracement-sell type
Condition
Upper price capped at 62,550–62,720 JPY, or 63,280 JPY. Shallow retracement if 62,070 JPY breaks.
Result
63,280 JPY was breached; 62,550–62,720 JPY did not cap the high. 62,070 JPY was not broken.
Evaluation
Not established. Intraday was more bullish than bearish; retracement-sell did not play out.
Previous ④ Pushback-low break type
Condition
Break 61,360 JPY on 15m close and 61,020 JPY on 1H close.
Result
61,360 JPY and 61,020 JPY breaks did not occur.
Evaluation
Not established. Pushback-low break did not trigger; uptrend remained favorable.

8. MTF State

4H: Flat / Rising Wave
Status
Strong rebound from 59,340 JPY, approaching the 63,860 JPY major return high.
Judgment
Upward continuation on 4H is not confirmed until a close above 63,860 JPY.
Key Lines
Up: 63,860 JPY / Down: 61,800 JPY and 61,020 JPY
Upside Condition
Close above 63,860 JPY.
Downside Condition
Pullback toward 62,080 JPY after breaking 63,180 JPY.
1H：Up / Rising Wave
Status
Rise continues with 61,020 JPY as pullback low. Broke 63,280 JPY and rose to 63,460 JPY.
Judgment
Medium-term bullish. Focus on whether 63,280–63,180 JPY can be maintained.
Key Lines
Up: 63,460 JPY・63,860 JPY / Down: 63,180 JPY・62,720 JPY・62,080 JPY
Upside Condition
Recovery of 63,460 JPY and attempt 63,860 JPY.
Downside Condition
Break below 63,180 JPY implies a short-term correction; break below 62,080 JPY reduces upside potential.
15m：Up / Rising Wave
Status
Rising continues with 63,180 JPY as pullback low.
Judgment
Short-term bullish. However, elevated price area warrants prudence in jumping in.
Key Lines
Up: 63,460 JPY・63,860 JPY / Down: 63,180 JPY・62,720 JPY
Upside Condition
Close above 63,460 JPY.
Downside Condition
Close below 63,180 JPY.

Overall Judgment

MTF overall: 15m and 1H are bullish, 4H in a return phase awaiting a 63,860 JPY breakout. Night session focuses on pullback-buy, while watching for stall near 63,860 JPY.

9. Trade Ideas

① Breakout-tracking type
  • Priority:Secondary primary
  • Activation condition:Recovery of 63,460 JPY by 15m close, continuing toward 63,860 JPY
  • Early entry:63,460 JPY close recovered (15m)
  • This entry:63,860 JPY close recovered (1H)
  • Triggering leg:15m lead / confirmed on 1H to build a full position
  • Early stop:Close below 63,180 JPY (15m)
  • Position stop:Close below 63,460 JPY
  • Target 1:63,860 JPY
  • Target 2:64,000–64,300 JPY

Evaluation:
15m and 1H show clear upside, but 4H retains 63,860 JPY as a major return high. The 63,460 JPY recovery is the lead, with full upside evaluated on 1H recovery of 63,860 JPY.

② Pullback-buy type
  • Priority:Main
  • Standard condition:Pull back to 63,280–63,180 JPY, or 62,720–62,550 JPY and form rebound
  • Shallow pullback condition:Even if the pullback zone is not reached, recover to 63,460 JPY by 15m close
  • Early entry:63,460 JPY close recovered (15m)
  • This entry:63,860 JPY close recovered (1H)
  • Early stop:Close below 63,180 JPY (15m)
  • Position stop:Close below 63,460 JPY
  • Complete exit:Close below 62,080 JPY
  • Target 1:63,860 JPY
  • Target 2:64,000–64,300 JPY

Evaluation:
Night session favors a pullback-buy. After a strong rise, prefer to verify support around 63,280–63,180 JPY. Shallower condition has weaker basis than standard; use 15m lead with smaller size and finalize on 1H.

③ Retracement-sell type
  • Priority:Sub
  • Standard condition:Upper price capped around 63,460–63,860 JPY
  • Shallow retracement condition:Even if retracement zone not reached, break 63,180 by 15m close
  • Early entry:63,180 JPY close breached (15m)
  • This entry:62,550 JPY close breached (1H)
  • Early stop:Recovery to 63,460 JPY close (15m)
  • Position stop:63,180 JPY close recovered
  • Strong invalidation:Close recovered above 63,860 JPY
  • Target 1:62,720–62,550 JPY
  • Target 2:62,080 JPY

Evaluation:
If 4H stalls near 63,860 JPY, there remains room for a retracement. However, since 1H and 15m are still rising, retracement-sell is a counter scenario. Do not force sales below 63,180 JPY.

④ Pushback-low break type
  • Priority:Lower priority
  • Activation condition：Break below 63,180 JPY on close
  • Early entry：63,180 JPY close breached (15m)
  • This entry：62,550 JPY close breached (1H)
  • Triggering leg：15m lead / confirmed on 1H to full position
  • Early stop for lead：Recovery to 63,460 JPY close (15m)
  • Position stop：63,180 JPY close recovered
  • Complete exit：63,860 JPY close recovered
  • Target 1：62,080 JPY
  • Target 2：61,840–61,020 JPY

Evaluation：
A break below 63,180 JPY would momentarily break the short-term upside wave. However, the 1H uptrend structure remains above 61,020 JPY, so continue to judge pushback-low break progressively.

Current Priority

  • Main: ② Pushback-buy type
  • Secondary main: ① Breakout-tracking type
  • Sub: ③ Retracement-sell type
  • Low priority: ④ Pushback-low break type

10. Current Action

Night session prioritizes pullback-buy as main. Focus on stopping the decline around 63,280–63,180 JPY and reclaiming 63,460 JPY.

If a close above 63,860 JPY is achieved on 1H, evaluate upside continuation. If instead 63,180 JPY is closed below, expect a move toward 62,720–62,550 JPY.

11. Notes

This is a night session after achieving targets intraday, where chasing high can be risky. Since 63,860 JPY is a major return high, confirm whether it can be breached or capped using close data.

For pullback buys, do not judge by zone reach alone; confirm 15m rebound shape, higher lows, and 63,460 JPY recovery.

12. About this Report

This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across 4H / 1H / 15m timeframes.

It organizes market context, important price ranges, and trade ideas based on close-based swing structure, pullback lows, return highs, and reversal prices.

※ This report is for information purposes only and not investment advice. Trading decisions should be made at your own risk.
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