The translated HTML content is: NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-22 06:30

1. Trend Table

SW1｜15m

Trend

Upward

Wave

Upward Wave

Turning Price

62,070 JPY ↓

Pullback Low

61,020 JPY ●

Return High

62,080 JPY ✕

SW2｜1H

Trend

Upward

Wave

Upward Wave

Turning Price

61,360 JPY ↓

Pullback Low

61,020 JPY ●

Return High

---

SW3｜4H

Trend

Pause

Wave

Upward Wave

Turning Price

61,020 JPY ↓

Pullback Low

---

Return High

63,860 JPY ●

● = Hold / ✕ = Close price break completed / ↑ = Breakout to move higher / ↓ = Breakout to move lower. Prices are read from charts. Conclusions prioritize closing price confirmation.

2. Important Price Ranges

63,860 JPY

4H｜Major Return High

Final line to judge resumption of major uptrend. Until a close above this level is achieved, 4H is treated as a retracement phase.

63,280 JPY

1H｜Upper Return High Candidate

Next upside candidate after breaking above the 62,300s. If reclaimed, 63,860 JPY becomes in view.

62,550–62,720 JPY

1H｜Return Sell Candidate / Resistance Zone

Next resistance zone if price tests the upside during the day. Watch whether it stalls here or breaks through to 63,280 JPY.

62,300 JPY range

15m–1H｜Night High Zone

Area where upside can reach in late night. If breakout occurs, expect follow-through; if it stalls, anticipate short-term consolidation.

62,080 JPY

15m｜Recent Break Line

A recent upside breakout/return high. The focus during the day is whether it can be supported.

61,840 JPY

1H｜Pullback Candidate

First pullback candidate if 62,080 JPY is broken. If held, odds of further upside improve.

61,360 JPY

1H｜Medium-Term Turning Price

If breached, 1H upward wave weakens and 61,020 JPY test becomes a concern.

61,020 JPY

15m・1H｜Pullback Low

Key pullback low held during night. If closed below, upside scenario may temporarily collapse.

60,420 JPY

Lower Bound

Lower price target after breaking 61,020 JPY.

59,340 JPY

Recent Bottom

Origin of rebound from intraday low. If broken, downside trend assessment strengthens again.

3. 4H Analysis

The 4H chart has rebounded from 59,340 JPY and recovered to around 61,800 JPY. It is rising above the 20 EMA/20 SMA, shifting from a purely downtrend to a retracement phase.

However, the major retrace high remains 63,860 JPY, and until a close above this level is achieved, a renewed 4H uptrend is not confirmed. Currently, observe how far the rebound from 59,340 JPY extends toward 62,550–62,720 JPY, 63,280 JPY, and 63,860 JPY.

4. 1H Analysis

The 1H rose from 61,020 JPY as a pullback, recovering to 61,840 JPY and 62,080 JPY, entering an upward wave. As long as 62,080 JPY holds, expect upside attempts toward 62,550–62,720 JPY during the day.

Conversely, breaking 62,080 JPY on a close implies a short-term correction. Breaks below 61,840 JPY point to 61,360 JPY, and breaks below 61,020 JPY threaten the 1H upward wave.

5. 15m Analysis

The 15m is in an uptrend and upward wave. After late-night breakout above 62,080 JPY, the current price is around 62,110 JPY. In the short term, it is in a high-price consolidation zone.

62,070 JPY is the short-term turning price; breaking this on a close would weaken the move after the 62,080 JPY breakout. If price breaks again above the 62,300 JPY range, expect follow-through toward 62,550–62,720 JPY.

6. Conclusion

During the intraday session, the 1H and 15m are aligned upward, favoring a pullback-buying strategy. If price can sustain 62,080–61,840 JPY, a re-break of 62,300 JPY targets 62,550–62,720 JPY. Conversely, breaking 62,070 JPY ushers in a short-term correction, and breaking 61,020 JPY undermines the bullish scenario.

7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas

Subject: Night Session

Previous Idea 1: Breakout-following

Conditions

Recovery above 62,080 JPY on close and extension toward 62,300s.

Result

Night early saw a pullback to 61,020 JPY, then recovered to 61,840 JPY and 62,080 JPY, rising to the 62,300s.

Evaluation

Successful. Recovered above 62,080 JPY and moved higher to the target around 62,300 JPY.

Previous Idea 2: Pullback-buy

Conditions

Maintain pullback zone around 61,360–61,020 JPY to form a reversal pattern.

Result

Held at 61,020 JPY and reversed higher, recovering to 61,840 JPY and 62,080 JPY.

Evaluation

Successful. Functioned as a straightforward pullback-buy idea.

Previous Idea 3: Return Sell

Conditions

Price capped near 62,080 JPY and moved toward 61,360 JPY.

Result

Night early saw a drop from 62,080 JPY to 61,020 JPY, but did not break 61,020 JPY decisively and bounced.

Evaluation

Partial; the initial drop worked, but the subsequent strong recovery above 62,080 JPY ended the return-sell recommendation.

Previous Idea 4: Break below Pullback Low

Conditions

Close below 61,020 JPY

Result

Found support at 61,020 JPY with no clear close below.

Evaluation

Not valid. Instead of a break, pullback held and upward move resumed.

8. MTF State

4H: Pause / Upward Wave

Status

Rebound from 59,340 JPY and recovered to around 61,800 JPY. Major trend shifted to retracement.

Judgment

Upside momentum exists, but not a resumed major uptrend until 63,860 JPY is reclaimed on a close.

Key Levels

Upside: 62,550–62,720 JPY / 63,280 JPY / 63,860 JPY; Downside: 61,840 JPY / 61,020 JPY / 59,340 JPY

Upside Condition

Break through 62,550–62,720 JPY and return toward 63,280 JPY.

Downside Condition

Break below 61,020 JPY closes to weaken the retracement.

The 4H chart has rebounded strongly from 59,340 JPY. It again trades above the 20 EMA/20 SMA, reducing previous downward pressure. However, until the major retrace high at 63,860 JPY is recovered, treat as retracement rather than a resumed uptrend.

1H: Upward / Upward Wave

Status

Rebounded from 61,020 JPY pullback low, recovering to 61,840 JPY and 62,080 JPY.

Judgment

Medium-term uptrend favored. If 62,080 JPY holds, there is room to test 62,550–62,720 JPY.

Key Levels

Upside: 62,300 JPY; 62,550–62,720 JPY; 63,280 JPY / Downside: 62,080 JPY; 61,840 JPY; 61,020 JPY

Upside Condition

Close above 62,300 JPY and move toward 62,550–62,720 JPY.

Downside Condition

Break below 62,080 JPY implies a short-term correction; break below 61,840 JPY suggests caution toward 61,360 JPY.

The 1H has returned to an upward wave. It is a rebound holding 61,020 JPY, with daytime bias toward buying on dips. However, if price cannot extend above 62,300 JPY, short-term consolidation may occur.

15m：Upward / Upward Wave

Status

After breaking 62,080 JPY, price flatlines near 62,110 JPY. Short-term consolidation in the high zone.

Judgment

If 62,080 JPY remains, upward continuation. A break below 62,070 JPY would briefly weaken the short-term upward wave.

Key Levels

Upside: 62,300 JPY; Downside: 62,080 JPY; 62,070 JPY; 61,840 JPY

Upside Condition

Close above 62,300 JPY on a 15m chart.

Downside Condition

Break below 62,070 JPY on close implies a move toward 61,840 JPY.

The 15m is in an uptrend, but the current price nears the turning price of 62,070 JPY. During the day, watching 62,080 JPY as support and a potential re-break of 62,300 JPY is key.

Overall Judgment

Across the MTF, the 1H and 15m are bullish, and the 4H has improved into a retracement phase. During the day, favor buying on dips and monitor whether 62,080–61,840 JPY can be held. A break above 62,300 JPY targets 62,550–62,720 JPY, while breaking 62,070 JPY shifts to a short-term correction.

9. Trade Ideas

① Breakout-following

Priority:Sub
Activation Condition:Close above 62,300 JPY on 15m
Lead Entry:Recovery to 62,300 JPY on close (15m)
Actual Entry:Recovery to 62,550 JPY on close (1H)
Trigger:15m lead / 1H confirmed as full position
Target 1:62,550–62,720 JPY
Target 2:63,280 JPY
Stop for Lead:Close below 62,080 JPY (15m)
Stop for Main Position:Close below 62,080 JPY

Evaluation:
With short- and mid-term upside alignment, breaking above 62,300 JPY is valid for breakout-following. However, the 4H remains pause-range, so expect retracement up to 63,860 JPY.

② Pullback-buy

Priority:Main
Standard Condition:Pull back to 62,080–61,840 JPY and form a double bottom or higher low on 15m
Shallow Pullback Condition:Even if pullback zone not reached, recover to 62,300 JPY on 15m close
Lead Entry:Maintain 62,080 JPY and recover to 62,300 JPY on 15m close
Actual Entry:Recovery to 62,550 JPY on 1H close
Target 1:62,550–62,720 JPY
Target 2:63,280 JPY
Lead Loss Cut:Close below 61,840 JPY (15m)
Main Position Loss Cut:Close below 62,080 JPY
Full Exit:Close below 61,020 JPY

Evaluation:
The day’s primary idea is pullback buying. Since 61,020 JPY rebounded aligning 1H and 15m to the upside, defending 62,080–61,840 JPY makes pullback a viable buy. Shallow pullback condition has weaker basis than standard; thus 15m lead is smaller and the main position is formed upon 1H close.

③ Return Sell

Priority:Low
Standard Condition:Sell when price is capped near 62,550–62,720 JPY or around 63,280 JPY
Shallow Return Condition:Even if return zone not reached, break 62,070 JPY on 15m close
Lead Entry:Break below 62,070 JPY on 15m close
Actual Entry:Break below 61,840 JPY on 1H close
Trigger:15m lead / 1H confirmed as full position
Target 1:61,840 JPY
Target 2:61,360–61,020 JPY
Lead Loss Cut:Recover above 62,300 JPY on 15m close
Main Loss Cut:Recover above 62,550 JPY on close
Strong Invalidated Level:Recover above 62,720 JPY on close

Evaluation:
In the higher-timeframe retracement scenario, but since 1H and 15m align upward, return-sell is low priority. If price drops below 62,070 JPY, it remains only a condition for a short-term correction; until 61,840 JPY closes below on 1H, avoid doubling down on selling.

④ Break below Pullback Low

Priority:Sub
Activation Condition:Close below 61,020 JPY
Lead Entry:Break below 61,360 JPY on 15m close
Actual Entry:Break below 61,020 JPY on 1H close
Trigger:15m lead / 1H confirmed as full position
Target 1:60,420 JPY
Target 2:59,960–59,340 JPY
Lead Loss Cut:Recover above 61,840 JPY on 15m close
Main Loss Cut:Recover above 61,360 JPY on close
Full Exit:Recover above 62,080 JPY on close

Evaluation:
61,020 JPY is the night’s maintained pullback low; until this is broken, Break Below Pullback Low does not trigger. Break below 61,360 JPY signals a pre-warning, and a 1H close below 61,020 JPY confirms position formation.

Current Priority

Main: ② Pullback-buy
Sub: ① Breakout-following
Sub: ④ Break below Pullback Low
Low Priority: ③ Return Sell

10. Current Actions

During the day, make pullback-buy the main strategy. If price stays in 62,080–61,840 JPY and recovers toward 62,300 JPY, consider it a buying candidate.

Breakout-following targets above 62,300 JPY; pullback-buy targets to hold 62,080–61,840 JPY, pursuing 62,300 JPY continuation and break toward 62,550–62,720 JPY. Conversely, a break below 62,070 JPY signals early short-term correction, and a break below 61,840 JPY confirms a shift toward the main action.

11. Cautions

The 4H has not yet recovered above 63,860 JPY, so treat as retracement rather than resumed major uptrend. Buy-side is favored, but sell-side may emerge around 62,550–62,720 JPY and 63,280 JPY.

Decisions are based on closing prices. Do not tilt to selling solely on intraday wicks near 62,080 JPY; confirm a close below 62,070 JPY or 61,840 JPY.

12. About This Report

This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.

It organizes market environment, key price ranges, and trading ideas based on closing-price swing structures, pullback lows, retracement highs, and turning prices.

※This report is for information only and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own investment decisions at your own risk.
#Nikkei225 #Futures #MTFAnalysis #DowTheory #MarketEnvironment #Nikkei225 #Futures

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

1. Trend Table

2. Important Price Ranges

3. 4H Analysis

4. 1H Analysis

5. 15m Analysis

6. Conclusion

7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas

8. MTF State

Overall Judgment

9. Trade Ideas

Current Priority

10. Current Actions

11. Cautions

12. About This Report