<原文を英語に翻訳して、HTML形式を維持します。改行を挟まず、デコード済みの標準表現に変換します。 [Dollar/yen shows change within a “deadlock” stage, the current market is at a point where only those who can endure remain]
【The USDJPY shows changes within a state of stalemate; the current market remains for those who can endure】
The current USDJPY market, while staying in the high range, continues to show a lack of direction overall. Unlike before, when once it started moving, the trend would straightforwardly extend, recent movements often stall mid-way when rising, and recoveries tend to occur soon after declines.
In other words, the present USDJPY is becoming a market that seems to be moving but is not actually progressing.
A major backdrop is the vigilant stance toward currency intervention. In the market, around 160 yen remains highly conscious, and the view that “the authorities may move again at this price level” remains strong. As a result, buying aggressively to chase highs has become harder.
On the other hand, the dollar itself remains firm. Inflation in the U.S. has not fully cooled, and the Fed has not relinquished a cautious stance toward rapid rate cuts. Consequently, U.S. interest rates tend to stay high, and the widening of the U.S.-Japan rate differential keeps downside in USDJPY limited.
Thus, the present USDJPY has both factors that could push it higher and factors that make a sharp decline unlikely, making it prone to move within a range.
Moreover, dynamics in the Middle East and fluctuations in crude oil prices also contribute to market instability. If crude oil prices rise, import costs for Japan increase, making yen selling a more noticeable factor. Yet, as geopolitical risks rise, there are also cases where demand for yen as a safe haven increases, preventing a one-way market movement.
Additionally, expectations toward the Bank of Japan are confusing the market. While policy rates are kept unchanged, market speculation remains that there could be an additional rate hike. However, given the need to consider economic and external conditions, a rapid tightening of monetary policy is unlikely.
This blend of “expectations” and “cautious stance” is causing the overall market to enter a “wait-and-see” mode.
In this environment, what individual investors should focus on is that it can be a strategy not to force movement—“not forcing trades is also part of the strategy.”
Recently, even when USDJPY appears to briefly break, it tends to return to a range soon after. Therefore, trading by simply jumping on every move has become much more difficult than before.
Especially in the early hours of the London and New York sessions, a move that lasts only briefly before a full retrace is not uncommon. Now it is better to wait for conditions to align rather than trying to take a trade every day, which leads to more stable outcomes.
For example, avoiding patterns you are not proficient in, not forcing entries when price ranges are narrow, stepping back to observe around major data releases—such “patience” tends to translate into substantial gains in the end.
The current USDJPY market is dominated more by hesitation and caution than by a clear direction. Therefore, the key to stable profits now is not “how many trades you take,” but rather “how many unnecessary entries you can reduce.”