NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-21 16:17
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
●＝Holding / ✕＝Close break confirmed / ↑＝Breakout above for upside reversal / ↓＝Breakdown below for downside reversal. Price readings are chart-driven. Judgments prioritize closing confirmations.
2. Important Price Ranges
3. 4H Analysis
The 4H chart rebounded from 59,340, temporarily pierced 61,800 to 62,080 intraday, but this is a retrace after the 63,860 high and it is hard to say the 4H close clearly sustained 61,800.
61,800〜62,190 is a crucial resistance zone where the 4H’s old pullback low and the 1H’s return high coincide. If broken and held, the pullback can continue; if 61,000 breaches, intraday upside may fail again.
4. 1H Analysis
The 1H started from 59,340, recovered to 61,000, then rose to 62,080. This shifts bias to bullish in the short-to-medium term, but it did not reach the higher return high at 62,190, and was pushed back to 61,540 before the day session close.
As long as 61,000 is maintained on 1H, there is room for dip-buying. If 61,000 closes below, it implies the return halted at 62,080 and suggests further adjustment toward 60,570〜60,260.
5. 15m Analysis
The 15m remains in an uptrend on SW1, but the wave has shifted to a downward motion from 62,080. Recently broke 61,840〜61,800, with current price at 61,540.
Key is whether 61,130 can hold as a pullback low. If 61,130 holds and 61,560 recovers, dip-buying continues; recovery to 61,840 would test 62,080 again. If 61,300 breaks and then closes below 61,130, the 15m up-structure collapses and focus shifts to 61,000 downward.
6. Conclusion
Night session focus: does 15m uptrend pullback stop, or does a break below 61,130 break the short-term up-structure? Upside requires 61,560 recovery, then 61,840 recovery, and ultimately a re-break of 62,080. Downside: a break below 61,300 initiates a return-sell, and a break below 61,130 shifts to a pullback-low breakdown scenario.
7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas
Subject: Intraday Session
8. MTF Status
Overall Judgment
MTF overall: 4H retrace, 1H mixed (rebound favored but turning into consolidation), 15m uptrend with a downside wave. Therefore, use dip-buying as the main approach for the night, and switch to a selling scenario if 61,130 is breached.
9. Trade Ideas
- Priority:Sub
- Activation Conditions:Recover 61,840 on 15m close and clearly break above 62,080
- Pre-entry:61,840 close recovery (15m)
- Main Entry:62,080 close recovery (1H)
- Signal:15m lead / confirmed on 1H for full position
- Target 1:62,190
- Target 2:62,720〜62,760
- Pre-Stop:Close below 61,560
- Position Stop:Close below 61,840
- Strong Disable:Close below 61,300
Evaluation：
During the day, upside is capped at 62,080; for night buying, not only 61,840 recovery but also a re-break of 62,080 is required. If 62,080 cannot be exceeded on a 1H close, follow-ups to the upside are unlikely.
- Priority：Main bias
- Standard Condition：Pullback to 61,300–61,130 and form a double bottom or higher low on the 15m
- Shallow Dip Condition：Even if the dip candidate zone not reached, recover 61,560 by 15m close
- Pre-Entry：61,560 close recovery (15m)
- Main Entry：61,840 close recovery (1H)
- Target 1：62,080
- Target 2：62,190〜62,760
- Pre-Stop：Close below 61,300
- Position Stop：Close below 61,130
- Full Exit：Close below 61,000
Evaluation：
Since 15m shows an uptrend, night buys tilt toward dip-buying as main; however, since the wave has shifted to the downward phase from 62,080, maintaining 61,300–61,130 is crucial. Shallow conditions have weaker justification than standard, so only a slight lead from 61,560 recovery is kept modest.
- Priority：Counter
- Standard Condition：Return is capped between 61,840–62,080, then upside is suppressed
- Shallow Return Condition：If the return zone is not reached, break 61,300 on 15m close
- Pre-Entry：61,300 close breach (15m)
- Main Entry：61,000 close breach (1H)
- Judgment Feet：15m lead / confirmed on 1H for full position
- Target 1：61,130〜61,000
- Target 2：60,570〜60,260
- Pre-Stop：61,560 close recovery
- Position Stop：61,840 close recovery
- Strong Disable：62,080 close recovery
Evaluation：
Because intraday high reached 62,080 but faded toward the close, the return-sell type remains as counter; however, with 15m pullback low at 61,130 and uptrend still intact, avoid rushing to sell until 61,300 breach; breach of 61,130 strengthens the sell scenario.
- Priority：Scenario switch
- Activation Condition：Close below 61,130
- Pre-Entry：61,130 close breach (15m)
- Main Entry：61,000 close breach (1H)
- Judgment Feet：15m lead / confirmed for full position
- Target 1：60,570〜60,370
- Target 2：60,260〜59,960
- Pre-Stop：61,130 close recovery
- Position Stop：61,300 close recovery
- Complete Exit：61,560 close recovery
Evaluation：
61,130 is the 15m pullback low; breaking it treats as a breakdown of the up-move rather than a pullback, and a further breach of 61,000 on the 1H close shifts to a day-low reversal, favoring 60,570〜60,260 for downside.
Current Priority
- Main Bias: ② Dip-buy Type
- Counter: ③ Return-Sell Type
- Sub: ① Break-follow Type
- Scenario Switch: ④ Pullback Low Break Type
10. Current Actions
Night session: watch whether 61,300–61,130 can hold. If held and 61,560 recovers, proceed with dip-buying; recovery to 61,840 confirms position; re-break of 62,080 targets toward 62,190–62,760.
If 61,300 breaks, switch to return-sell bias; if 61,130 breaks, switch to pullback-low break type. If 1H close below 61,000, prioritize continuation of the adjustment.
11. Cautions
The 15m remains in an uptrend, but from 62,080 downward wave has started. Therefore, dip buying should be based on maintaining 61,130, and not insist on buying if 61,130 breaks.
When buying the 61,840–62,080 return, consider the risk of retesting fails without reaching 62,190. If 61,000 closes below, intraday gains may retreat into a dip-sell.
12. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across 4H / 1H / 15m in a Multi-Time Frame (MTF) framework.
It organizes market environment, key price bands, and trade ideas based on swing structure at close, pullback lows, return highs, and turning prices.
※This report is intended for information provision and is not investment advice; trading decisions are your responsibility.
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