[Dollar/Yen moves toward “looks like it will move but doesn’t,” market heading into a phase where “patient trading” is important]

【Dollar/Yen to Move Yet Not Move: Now, “Patience in Trading” is Key】

The current dollar/yen market remains in the high price area, but it has become harder to discern a clear trend as before. Until recently there were many moments where pullbacks were relatively straightforward, and the direction was easy to grasp. Lately, however, even when it moves up temporarily it doesn’t extend, and when it declines it quickly recovers.

In other words, the current dollar/yen seems to be in a state of “looks like it might move but doesn’t.”

A major factor behind this is vigilance regarding potential yen intervention by Japanese authorities. In the market, around 160 yen remains strongly in focus, with a solid belief that there is a possibility of intervention to buy yen again at this price level. As a result, aggressive chasing of highs has become more subdued than before.

On the other hand, the dollar itself remains solid. Inflation in the U.S. has not fully subsided, and the Fed remains cautious about rapid rate cuts. Consequently, U.S. interest rates tend to stay high, which in turn keeps the downside for USD/JPY limited against the backdrop of the U.S.–Japan interest-rate gap.

In short, USD/JPY is in a state where it cannot decisively break above or below, making range-bound price action more likely.

Furthermore, Middle East tensions and fluctuations in crude oil prices complicate the market. If oil prices rise, import costs for Japan increase, making yen selling a more noticeable factor. Yet, when geopolitical risks rise, demand for the safe-haven yen can appear, and responses to the same news can thus be inconsistent.

Also, perceptions of the Bank of Japan are in a delicate balance. Although policy rates are kept unchanged, the market still wonders whether the next rate hike is coming. However, given economic impacts and global caution, a sharp tightening move is unlikely.

This mix of “expectation” and “cautious stance” makes the overall market prone to uncertainty.

In such an environment, individual investors should be mindful of: **“do not rush into trades.”**

Recently, the dollar/yen often appears to move strongly for a moment but then quickly retraces. Therefore, trying to “jump on as it moves” has become more difficult than before.

Particularly in the London and early New York sessions, there are many instances where prices seem to extend in one direction and then sharply reverse, making traders prone to being squeezed by short-term players. Now, more important than “continuing to hunt for opportunities” may be “be able to wait.”

For example, avoiding trades outside your strong patterns, not forcing entries around major indicators, and reducing the number of trades to improve quality—these basic practices are more likely to lead to stable results.

The current USD/JPY market is characterized not by a strong sense of direction but by a spread of hesitation across the market. Therefore, now more than ever, rather than trying to predict which way it will move, adopting a “patient, waiting posture” is likely to lead to better trades in the end.