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カタナ
05/20/2026 17:59
Release： 05/20/2026 17:59
Update： 05/20/2026 17:59
カタナ
Investment style : Trading System
Investment career : More than 10 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
System trader of Nikkei 225 futures. After gaining various trading experiences at Japanese and foreign securities firms, went independent in 2013. Since then, began with discretionary trading focused on Nikkei 225 futures. In order to reduce the adverse effects of human psychology on trading, moved through systematic trading and now conducts fully automated system trading.
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NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-21 06:58

NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report

Date and Time: May 21, 2026 06:50 JST / Night Session Close
Current Price: 61,220 JPY / For Intraday Session
Subject: NK225 Futures / 4H • 1H • 15m / Dow Theory Indicator

1. Trend Table

SW1｜15m
Trend
Uptrend
Wave
Downward Wave
Turning Price
61,560 JPY ↑
Pullback Low
60,260 JPY ●
Return High
---
SW2｜1H
Trend
Uptrend
Wave
Upward Wave
Turning Price
60,370 JPY ↓
Pullback Low
59,340 JPY ●
Return High
61,000 JPY ✕
SW3｜4H
Trend
Flat
Wave
Upward Wave
Turning Price
59,340 JPY ↓
Pullback Low
---
Return High
63,860 JPY ●

● = Hold / ✕ = End-of-day Breakout occurred / ↑ = Breakout to the upside indicates an upturn / ↓ = Break below indicates a downtrend. Prices are read from the chart. Decisions prioritize closing price confirmation.

2. Important Price Zones

63,860 JPY
4H｜Major Return High
Major return high on the 4H timeframe. Until this level is breached again, the overall upward move cannot be considered resumed.
61,800 JPY
4H｜Old Pullback Low / Return Sell Candidate
Old pullback low breached on the 4H. The ability to recover from here determines continuation of the 4H upward return.
61,560 JPY
15m・1H｜Night High
Recent high formed during the night session. If breached, evaluate breakout toward 61,800 JPY.
61,300 JPY
15m｜Short-Term Rebound Trigger
Verification line for recent bottoming rebound. Used as a trigger for pullback buying.
61,000 JPY
1H｜Old Return High / Support Candidate
Return high that has been closed above on the 1H. Maintaining this level is the key intraday turning point.
60,830 JPY–60,570 JPY
15m〜1H｜Pullback Candidate
Next pullback zone if 61,000 JPY is broken. If this level is held, room for a rebound remains.
60,370 JPY
1H｜Downward Wave Regression Candidate
1H turning price. If closed below, the upward wave on the 1H is more likely to break down.
60,260 JPY
15m｜Pullback Low
Pullback low of the 15m uptrend. A close below this level would break the short-term up scenario.
59,960 JPY
1H｜Mid-Low
Downside target after breaching 60,260 JPY. If breached, 59,340 JPY retest draws closer.
59,340 JPY
1H・4H｜Recent Important Low
Low after the previous sharp drop. If breached, increased downside risk as the 4H rebound would fail.

3. 4H Analysis

The 4H shows a reversal after a large drop from 63,860 JPY to 59,340 JPY. A rebound has begun, but the old pullback low at 61,800 JPY remains unrecovered, leaving the 4H assessment as a rebound phase after a significant drop.

Current price 61,220 JPY is recovering the short-term MA on the 4H, but resistance remains at 61,560–61,800 JPY. If 61,800 JPY is recovered by the 4H close, the continuation of the 4H rebound will be easier to evaluate. Conversely, if 61,000 JPY cannot be held and it weakens toward 60,260 JPY, beware a rebound failure.


4. 1H Analysis

1H shows an uptrend and rising wave. A rebound from 59,340 JPY and breaking the 61,000 JPY return high on a closing basis indicates the 1H structure has turned upward.

However, the night high is capped at 61,560 JPY, not yet reaching the 61,800 JPY resistance on the 4H. Intraday focus is whether 61,000 JPY can be turned into support or whether a pullback to 60,830–60,570 JPY can occur and then resume higher. A renewed break of 61,560 JPY would suggest continuation toward 61,800 JPY.


5. 15m Analysis

15m shows an uptrend with a downward wave. From 59,340 JPY, price rose to 61,560 JPY, then pulled back to the current 61,220 JPY. In the short term, this is a pullback after an upmove; maintaining 61,000–60,830 JPY is crucial.

A close above 61,300 JPY would signal a fresh short-term rebound. Breaking above 61,560 JPY would return to the uptrend. Conversely, closing below 60,260 JPY would indicate a resumption of the 15m uptrend failure.


6. Conclusion

Day session shows 1H turned up, with the near-term bias favoring buying on dips. If 61,000–60,830 JPY holds and 61,300 JPY is recovered, expect a test of 61,560 JPY. A breakout above 61,560 JPY targets 61,800 JPY. If price closes below 60,260 JPY, beware a continuation toward 59,960–59,340 JPY.

7. Backtesting of Previous Trade Idea


Previous ① Breakout-following Type
Conditions
Recover 60,930 JPY on a 15m close and recover 61,000–61,140 JPY on a 1H close.
Result
Price dipped to 59,340 JPY once, then recovered 60,930 JPY and 61,000 JPY, and rose to 61,560 JPY at night.
Evaluation
Successful. Target 1 at 61,140 JPY reached. Target 2 at 61,620–61,840 JPY not reached; price stalled at 61,560 JPY.
Continuation Judgment
As long as 61,000 JPY holds, continue with pullback-buying after a breakout. If 61,560 JPY is breached again, reassess continuation.
Previous ② Pullback Buying Type
Conditions
Maintain 60,310–59,960 JPY and form a rebound pattern to recover 60,930 JPY.
Result
Fall below 60,310–59,960 JPY to 59,340 JPY, then sharply rebound to recover 60,930 JPY.
Evaluation
Not fulfilled as a standard pullback buy. A rebound after a temporary retreat is viewed as a breakout-following scenario.
Continuation Judgment
Re-enter long after price sustains 61,000 JPY.
Previous ③ Return Sell Type
Conditions
Sell setup if price is capped at 60,830–60,930 JPY or 61,000–61,140 JPY; shallow rebound condition is 60,310 JPY break.
Result
Early breach of 60,310 JPY and 59,960 JPY led to 59,340 JPY; subsequently strong rebound returned to 61,000 JPY.
Evaluation
Found to be a shallow rebound decline that fulfilled target 1 at 59,960 JPY and target 2 at 59,500–59,300 JPY.
Continuation Judgment
After recovery of 61,000 JPY, the prior return-sell idea ends. If price stalls again between 61,560–61,800 JPY or breaks 61,000 JPY again, reassess.
Previous ④ Break of Pullback Low Type
Conditions
Close below 59,960 JPY
Result
Broke below 59,960 JPY, fell to 59,340 JPY.
Evaluation
Successful. Reached Target 1 at 59,500–59,300 JPY.
Continuation Judgment
After recovering 61,000 JPY, the prior downside scenario ends. If pullback low break occurs again, reassess at 60,260 JPY break and then 59,340 JPY break.

8. MTF State

4H: Relief / Upward Wave
State
From 63,860 JPY to 59,340 JPY, price has rebounded. However, the 4H upper return high of 63,860 JPY is distant, so no resumption of the uptrend yet.
Judgment
Recovery of the old pullback low at 61,800 JPY is key to confirming continuation of the 4H rebound. If not recovered, higher timeframe remains in a returning phase.
Key Lines
Upper: 61,560 JPY・61,800 JPY・63,860 JPY / Lower: 60,260 JPY・59,340 JPY
Bullish Condition
If 61,800 JPY is recovered by the 4H close, the 4H rebound continuation becomes easier to evaluate.
Bearish Condition
Watch for 60,260 JPY breach and further 59,340 JPY breach to signal 4H rebound failure.

The 4H briefly breached the 20 EMA and 20 SMA to the downside and then rebounded sharply from 59,340 JPY. However, until 61,800 JPY is recovered, the price remains in the assessment of a rebound after a major drop.

1H：Upward / Upward Wave
State
Rebound from 59,340 JPY, closing above the 61,000 JPY return high, signaling an uptrend on the 1H.
Judgment
If 61,000 JPY is maintained, the pullback-buying candidate after the breakout remains valid. A break below would raise risk of a false breakout.
Key Lines
Upper: 61,560 JPY・61,800 JPY / Lower: 61,000 JPY・60,370 JPY・59,340 JPY
Bullish Condition
If 61,560 JPY is broken upward, target toward 61,800 JPY. Recovery of 61,800 JPY also supports continuation on the 4H rebound.
Bearish Condition
Breaking below 61,000 JPY weakens upside momentum. Breach of 60,370 JPY triggers caution for the end of the 1H up wave.

The 1H is the current improvement. From the previous downtrend structure, breaking above 61,000 JPY has shifted the short-to-medium term to an upward stance. However, with 61,800 JPY as a nearby 4H resistance, prioritize dip-confirmation before buying.

15m：Upward / Downward Wave
State
15m maintains an uptrend but has entered a downward wave from 61,560 JPY.
Judgment
Current price 61,220 JPY is a pullback phase after an up move. Monitor whether 61,000–60,830 JPY holds to enable further upside.
Key Lines
Upper: 61,300 JPY・61,560 JPY / Lower: 61,000 JPY・60,830 JPY・60,260 JPY
Bullish Condition
If 61,300 JPY is recovered and the close above 61,560 JPY is achieved, price returns to the upwave.
Bearish Condition
Break below 60,260 JPY collapses the 15m uptrend.

15m is used for entry timing. Use pullback buying to confirm a rebound in the 61,000–60,830 JPY zone, with 61,300 JPY recovery signaling a lead and 61,560 JPY recovery confirming the main move.

Overall Judgment

Across multiple timeframes, the 4H is not yet in a large upturn restart, the 1H is upward-turning, and the 15m is within a rise-trend’s consolidation. During the day session, maintaining 61,000 JPY gives the edge to dip-buying. A break above 61,560 JPY indicates upside continuation, while a break below 60,260 JPY ends the uptrend scenario.

9. Trade Ideas

① Breakout-following Type
  • Priority：Core Bias
  • Activation Condition：Recover 61,560 JPY on a 15m close and extend toward 61,800 JPY on a 1H close
  • Pre-entry：61,560 JPY close recovered (15m)
  • Main Entry：61,800 JPY close recovered (1H)
  • Confirmation：15m leading / 1H confirmation to solid position
  • Target 1：61,800 JPY
  • Target 2：62,190–62,760 JPY
  • Pre-Stop：Close below 61,300 JPY (15m)
  • Main Stop：Close below 61,000 JPY
  • Strong Invalidation：Close below 60,830 JPY

Evaluation：
61,560 JPY is the night high; if re-broken, 15m upmove could resume. However, 61,800 JPY often acts as strong resistance at the 4H old pullback low. Do not chase beyond 61,560 JPY—wait for reaction at 61,800 JPY.

② Pullback Buy Type
  • Priority：Core
  • Standard Condition：Pull back to 61,000–60,830 JPY and then form a double bottom or higher lows on 15m
  • Shallow Pullback Condition：If pullback zone not reached, recover 61,300 JPY on 15m close
  • Pre-entry：61,300 JPY close recovered (15m)
  • Main Entry：61,560 JPY close recovered (1H)
  • Target 1：61,560 JPY
  • Target 2：61,800–62,190 JPY
  • Pre-Stop：Close below 61,000 JPY (15m)
  • Main Stop：Close below 60,830 JPY
  • Full Exit：Close below 60,260 JPY

Evaluation：
This time the primary idea is a pullback buy. It becomes a lead candidate after 1H breaks 61,000 JPY and turns upward. Standard condition aims to confirm rebound by pulling back to 61,000–60,830 JPY. Shallow pullback condition has weaker justification; use a smaller 15m lead and confirm main position with 1H close.

③ Return Sell Type
  • Priority：Secondary
  • Standard Condition：Sell pressure if 61,560–61,800 JPY caps the upside and 61,300 JPY is broken on a 15m close
  • Shallow Return Condition：If return zone not reached, break 61,000 JPY on 15m close
  • Pre-entry：61,000 JPY close broken (15m)
  • Main Entry：60,370 JPY close broken (1H) and confirm below 60,260 JPY
  • Confirmation：15m lead / 1H confirmed to be main position
  • Target 1：60,830–60,570 JPY
  • Target 2：60,260–59,960 JPY
  • Pre-Stop：Recovery to 61,300 JPY close (15m)
  • Main Stop：Recovery to 61,560 JPY close
  • Strong Invalidation：Recovery to 61,800 JPY close

Evaluation：
Return sell is a scenario if 61,800 JPY resistance on the 4H stalls the move. Since the 1H is turning upward, selling is not the primary action. Avoid easy selling until 61,000 JPY is breached, and look for resistance around 61,560–61,800 JPY to cap upside. Shallow return condition has weaker basis and should be treated with a smaller 15m lead.

④ Break of Pullback Low Type
  • Priority：Scenario Switch
  • Activation Condition：Close below 60,260 JPY
  • Pre-entry：60,260 JPY close breach (15m)
  • Main Entry：60,370 JPY close breach (1H) and confirm below 60,260 JPY
  • Confirmation：15m lead / 1H confirmed to be main position
  • Target 1：59,960 JPY
  • Target 2：59,340 JPY
  • Pre-Stop：Recovery to 60,260 JPY close (15m)
  • Main Stop：Recovery to 60,830 JPY close
  • Complete Exit：Recovery to 61,000 JPY close

Evaluation：
60,260 JPY is the 15m pullback low; breaking this level would cause the 1H upturn-based pullback buying scenario to fail. If 60,370 JPY 1H close breaks as well, anticipate a further drop toward 59,960–59,340 JPY.

Current Priority

  • Core: ② Pullback Buying Type
  • Core-Bias: ① Breakout-following Type
  • Secondary: ③ Return Sell Type
  • Scenario Switch: ④ Break of Pullback Low Type

10. Current Actions

During the day, prioritize whether price can hold 61,000–60,830 JPY and form a rebound pattern. Buying targets are 61,300 JPY for lead and 61,560 JPY for main position. A breakout above 61,560 JPY targets toward 61,800 JPY; recovering 61,800 JPY on a 1H close expands upside to around 62,190 JPY.

Selling targets a short-term stall below 61,000 JPY and transitions to the pullback-low-breaking type below 60,260 JPY. Do not prematurely convert selling to the core stance until 60,260 JPY is breached.

11. Notes

The 1H has turned upward, but the 4H has not yet resumed a larger uptrend. On 61,560–61,800 JPY, upside pressure tends to grow. Breakouts should be confirmed by closing prices, not just wicks.

Also, because this is a rebound after a sharp drop, whether 61,000 JPY can be held is crucial. If price breaks below 61,000 JPY but holds at 60,830–60,570 JPY, there remains room for a dip-buying, but breaking 60,260 JPY would switch the scenario to the downside.

12. About This Report

This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.

Using closing-price-based swing structure, pullback lows, return highs, and turning prices, it organizes market context, key price zones, and trade ideas.

※This report is for information purposes and not trading advice. Investment decisions are the reader's responsibility.
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