NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-20 16:20
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
● = Hold / ✕ = Close price breakout completed / ↑ = Breakout upward → upward turning / ↓ = Break below → downward turning. Judgments prioritize the close price confirmation.
2. Important Price Ranges
3. 4H Analysis
The 4H chart stalled high at ¥63,860 and after breaking below the pullback low of ¥61,800 on a confirmed close, the downtrend continued. Intraday decline to ¥59,340 with the current price at ¥59,700. Unless ¥60,000 is clearly recovered, the 4H chart remains a rebound within a downtrend.
In 4H, after breaking below the 20EMA and 20SMA, price moved toward the 120MA, entering a relatively sizable correction phase. Viewed with the daily as a supplementary reference, the correction from ¥63,860 has progressed toward the vicinity of the daily MA, a potential rebound zone. However, since there is no reversal confirmation on the 4H, the night session favors selling on rallies.
4. 1H Analysis
1H is in a downtrend with a downward wave. After being rejected at ¥61,000 on a rebound, price fell to ¥59,340. The area ¥59,960–¥60,000 tends to act as a rebound candidate after a downward breakout.
If ¥60,000 is recovered with a 15m close, a short-term rebound can continue; however, unless the 1H close is above ¥60,850–¥61,000, the downward bias remains. Conversely, breaking ¥59,340 would prioritize further drop toward ¥58,630.
5. 15m Analysis
In the downtrend, 15m has returned from ¥59,340 to a brief rising wave. Recently rebounded near ¥59,970 but failed to clearly recover ¥60,000, with the current price at ¥59,700.
As long as ¥59,550 holds, there is room for a short-term rebound. If ¥60,000 cannot be recovered, downside pressure increases. A break below ¥59,550 signals a renewed decline toward ¥59,340.
6. Conclusion
At the day’s close, 4H and 1H remain in downtrend, while 15m shows a short-term rebound after a drop. For night trading, the focus is on whether ¥60,000 can be recovered or if price breaks ¥59,340. Primary expectation is a sell on rallies. If ¥60,000 cannot be recovered, prioritize a move toward ¥58,630; if ¥59,340 breaks, favor ¥58,630 direction.
7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas
8. MTF State
The 4H trend remains downward. When viewed with the daily chart as an auxiliary, the correction from ¥63,860 toward around the daily MA level could allow a rebound, but no reversal confirmed on the 4H yet; night should favor selling on rallies.
Overall Judgment
MTF overall: 4H and 1H continue down; 15m shows a short-term rebound after a decline. Night trading focus is on whether ¥60,000 can be recovered. If not, return-sell remains favored; if ¥59,340 breaks, prioritize toward ¥58,630.
9. Trade Ideas
- Priority:Low
- Activation Condition:Recover ¥59,960–¥60,000 on 15m close and clearly break above ¥60,850
- Early Entry:Close above ¥60,000 (15m)
- This Entry:Close above ¥60,850–¥61,000 (1H)
- Judgment Candle:15m lead / 1H confirmed to enter position
- Target 1:¥60,850
- Target 2:¥61,000–¥61,150
- Pre-Entry Stop:Close below ¥59,550 (15m)
- Position Stop:Close below ¥59,960
- Strong Invalid:Close below ¥59,340
Evaluation:
With the higher timeframes in a downtrend, buying on breakout is of low priority. Recovery to ¥60,000 alone is only a short-term rebound. Only after a close above ¥60,850–¥61,000 on the 1H chart would we assess a continuation of the rebound toward ¥61,150.
- Priority:Secondary
- Standard Condition:Maintain ¥59,550–¥59,340 and form a double bottom or higher low on the 15m
- Shallow Pullback Condition:Even if the pullback zone isn’t reached, recover ¥59,960–¥60,000 on 15m close
- Early Entry:Close above ¥60,000 (15m)
- This Entry:Close above ¥60,850 (1H)
- Target 1:¥60,850
- Target 2:¥61,000–¥61,150
- Pre-Entry Stop:Close below ¥59,550 (15m)
- Position Stop:Close below ¥59,960
- Complete Exit:Close below ¥59,340
Evaluation:
Buying assumes holding the intraday low of ¥59,340. With the higher timeframes in a downtrend, mere zone reach does not justify a buy. If ¥59,340 is protected and ¥60,000 is closed above, treat as a short-term rebound. Shallow pullback conditions have weaker justification; keep the 15m entry smaller and enter the full position on a 1H close.
- Priority:Main
- Standard Condition:Return to around ¥59,960–¥60,000 or ¥60,850–¥61,000 and then cap upside
- Shallow Return Condition:If return zone not reached, break below ¥59,550 on 15m close
- Early Entry:Close below ¥59,550 (15m)
- This Entry:Close below ¥59,340 (1H)
- Judgment Candle:15m lead / 1H confirmation to enter
- Target 1:¥59,340
- Target 2:¥58,630
- Pre-Entry Stop:Recovery above ¥60,000 close (15m)
- Position Stop:Recovery above ¥60,850 close
- Strong Invalid:Recovery above ¥61,000 close
Evaluation:
Night session favors a return-sell approach. If intraday breaks ¥59,960 and 1H/4H trends continue downward, a return below ¥60,000 is a sell bias. If a shallow return is not supported, rely on the 15m lead being small and confirm the position on a 1H close below ¥59,340 to enter.
- Priority:More likely to be the main play
- Activation Condition:Close below ¥59,340
- Early Entry:Close below ¥59,340 (15m)
- This Entry:Close below ¥59,340 (1H)
- Judgment Candle:15m lead / 1H confirmation to enter
- Target 1:¥59,000–¥58,630
- Target 2:¥58,340–¥58,000
- Pre-Entry Stop:Recovery above ¥59,340 close (15m)
- Position Stop:Recovery above ¥59,550 close
- Complete Exit:Recovery above ¥60,000 close
Evaluation:
¥59,340 is intraday low; breaking below accelerates decline toward ¥58,630. The daily chart still holds some upward-buffer space, but as it continues to dip toward the daily MA, a break favors downward confirmation over rebound expectation.
Current Priority
- Main: ③ Return Sell Type
- Main-leaning: ④ Break-Low on Pullback Type
- Secondary: ② Buy on Pullback Type
- Low Priority: ① Breakout-follow Type
10. Current Actions
- Night session prioritizes Return Sell as the main idea.
- Sell on return stall around ¥59,960–¥60,000, or if price breaks ¥59,550 for a pre-emptive move.
- If ¥59,340 breaks on a 1H close, the position enters fully and targets toward ¥58,630.
- Buys are only considered when ¥59,340 is held and ¥60,000 is recovered on a 15m close for a short-term rebound.
- Until a 1H close above ¥60,850–¥61,000, buying remains limited to a rebound attempt.
11. Warnings
After a significant intraday drop, night trading may see a short-cover rally toward ¥60,000. However, if ¥60,000 cannot be recovered, return-sell pressure tends to dominate.
¥59,340 is the intraday low; whether price breaks below this level is the most critical downside point. Use close-price confirmation, not just wicks, for decisions.
12. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m. The daily chart is used only to confirm the broader context as needed.
Structured around close-based swing structure, pullback lows, return highs, and turning prices to summarize market environment, important price ranges, and trade ideas.
※This report is for information purposes and does not constitute investment advice. Please make your own investment decisions at your own risk.
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