NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-20 06:30 - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

1. Trend Table

SW1｜15m

Trend

Bearish

Wave

Downward wave

Conversion Price

60,930 JPY ↑

Support Low

59,960 JPY ●

Return High

---

SW2｜1H

Trend

Bearish

Wave

Rising wave

Conversion Price

59,960 JPY ↓

Support Low

---

Return High

61,840 JPY ●

SW3｜4H

Trend

Bearish

Wave

Downward wave

Conversion Price

61,620 JPY ↑

Support Low

61,800 JPY ✕

Return High

63,860 JPY ●

●=Holding / ✕=Close break occurred / ↑=Break above indicates rising conversion / ↓=Break below indicates falling conversion. Prices are read from chart. Decisions prioritize the close.

2. Important Price Ranges

63,860 JPY

4H｜Major Return High

Major return high on the 4H timeframe. Until this level is broken again, a major uptrend is not considered resumed.

61,840 JPY

1H｜Return High

Important resistance in the 1H downtrend. If recovered with a 1H close above, medium-term rebound strengthens.

61,620 JPY

4H｜Ascending Turn Candidate

4H conversion price. If price returns to this level intraday, it becomes a turn confirmation in higher timeframes.

61,140 JPY〜61,000 JPY

15m〜1H｜Return Sell Candidate

Night return-high zone. If upper price is resisted here, bias toward return selling.

60,930 JPY

15m｜Short-Term Rising Conversion Price

Short-term rebound trigger on 15m. If close recovers below 60,830, confirm failure.

60,830 JPY

15m｜Old Support / Return Sell Candidate

Key line from the previous report. Now viewed as resistance above after a breakout.

60,310 JPY

15m｜Interim Low

Mid-support before breaking 59,960. Break here brings lower prices back into play.

59,960 JPY

15m・1H｜Night Low / Support Low

Most important downside for the day. If closed below, bearish continuation becomes clear.

59,500〜59,300 JPY

Lower Price Candidate

Next downside target after breaking 59,960.

58,630 JPY

4H｜Lower Price Candidate

Past 4H low. Next critical line if 59,300 breaks to the downside.

3. 4H Analysis

The 4H is in a downtrend with a downward wave. After peaking at 63,860, the price stalled and broke below the 61,800 support, dropping to 59,960. Current price is around 60,570, with some rebound near 60,000, but still not enough to overturn the 4H downward bias.

In 4H, after breaking below the 20 EMA/20 SMA, price has fallen toward around the 120 MA. The focus for intraday is whether it stalls here or breaks below 59,960 toward the 200 MA direction. On the upside, until the 61,620–61,840 recovery is seen, the bias remains toward selling on rallies.

4. 1H Analysis

The 1H is an ascending wave within a downtrend. A rebound from 59,960 to around 61,000 occurred, but failed to reach 61,190, indicating weakness in the upside. Recently it has been held near the 20 EMA and slid back toward around 60,570.

If 60,930–61,000 is reclaimed, a brief rebound could continue; if not, a return to the downmove is likely. If 59,960 is broken with a 1H close, the 1H up-move ends and a return to a down-move takes priority.

5. 15m Analysis

The 15m shows a rallyless downward move. Night session retraced from 59,960 to 61,000 but faced resistance around 60,930–61,000 and slipped below 60,830 again. Short-term bias is toward selling.

If 60,930 closes above, a short-term rebound can be evaluated. Conversely, breaking 60,310 targets another test of 59,960, and a close below 59,960 confirms further decline.

6. Conclusion

During the daytime session, under the 4H and 1H downtrend bias, the focus is whether 59,960 can hold. Unless 60,830–61,000 is recovered, the bias leans toward selling on rallies. A break below 60,310 targets a test of 59,960 again, and a close below 59,960 points toward 59,500–59,300. Buying is only considered after a recovery beyond 60,930.

7. Validation of Previous Trade Idea

Previous Idea ① Breakout-follow type

Conditions

Recovery to 61,190 on 15m close and a clear break above 61,620.

Result

Night-time rally halted at 61,000 and did not reach 61,190 recovery.

Evaluation

Not established. No breakout followthrough.

Continuation Decision

With 61,190 not recovered, buying breakout remains low priority.

Previous Idea ② Dip-buy Type

Conditions

Pullback to 60,830–60,310 to form a rebound and recover 61,190.

Result

Break of 60,310 to 59,960. Rebound capped at 61,000, failed to reach 61,190.

Evaluation

Not established. The dip-buy zone could not be maintained; shift to complete exit.

Continuation Decision

For buying, wait for a recovery above 60,930–61,000 and re-evaluate rather than entering now.

Previous Idea ③ Return Sell Type

Conditions

Return to around 61,140–61,620 or near 61,840, then capped. Return threshold is around 60,830 on the shallow side.

Result

Fell below 60,830, continuing downward to 60,310 then 59,960. Rebound limited to 61,000 and failed to reach 61,190 recovery.

Evaluation

Established as a shallow-retracement down move. Target 1 achieved at 60,310, approaching near 60,000.

Continuation Decision

Since 61,190 has not recovered, the return-selling approach remains the main recommendation this time.

Previous Idea ④ Break of Support Low Type

Conditions

Close below 60,310 to confirm continued down move below 60,000.

Result

Break of 60,310 to 59,960. 60,000 reached intraday but closed near 60,000.

Evaluation

Established. Reached around 60,000 but 59,500–59,300 not reached.

Continuation Decision

Price retraced toward 60,830, so initial break of the support low was a partial profit-taking moment. The focus now is whether 59,960 closes below again.

8. MTF State

4H: Downward / Downward Wave

State

Broke below the 4H 61,800 support, falling to 59,960. Overall trend remains bearish.

Judgment

Rebound from around 60,000 seen, but until 61,620–61,840 is recovered, the market remains in a retracement/bearish phase.

Key Lines

Up: 61,620; 61,840; 63,860 / Down: 59,960; 59,500; 58,630

Upside Condition

Recover above 61,620 on a 4H close and break above 61,840. Major upside restarts with a break of 63,860.

Downside Condition

Break below 59,960 on a close, then target 59,500–59,300 and 58,630.

The 4H moved from a range breakout after breaking the 20 EMA/20 SMA to around 120 MA. Current price lingers near 120 MA, but if the rebound remains shallow and price falls again, focus shifts toward the 200 MA.

1H: Downward / Rising Wave

State

1H remains in a downtrend, forming a rebound from 59,960.

Judgment

Upside is capped at 61,000, and it again falls below the 20 EMA. Rebound is weak.

Key Lines

Up: 60,930; 61,000; 61,140; 61,840 / Down: 60,310; 59,960

Upside Conditions

Recover 60,930–61,000 and surpass 61,140 to continue a return toward 61,620–61,840.

Downside Conditions

If 59,960 breaks on a 1H close, the rebound ends and the price returns to a downward move.

The 1H rebound within a downtrend is not strong enough to reach the 61,840 high; recent rebound stalls at 61,000. Unless 60,930 is recovered, view as return-selling bias.

15m：Rally / Downward Wave

State

15m ended the night at around 60,570 after breaking 60,830.

Judgment

If 60,930 is recovered, expect a short-term rebound; otherwise, the downward wave continues.

Key Lines

Up: 60,830; 60,930; 61,000 / Down: 60,310; 59,960

Upside Conditions

Recover 60,930 on a 15m close and exceed 61,000.

Downside Conditions

Break 60,310 to retest 59,960, and break 59,960 to resume decline.

The 15m is used for entry decision-making. Buy if 60,930 recovers, sell if 60,310 breaks, and consider a stronger decline if 59,960 breaks on a close.

Overall Judgment

MTF overall: 4H bearish continuation, 1H rebound within a downtrend fading, 15m in a downward wave. The split for the day is whether 60,830–61,000 can be recovered or if 59,960 breaks on a close. Currently, the primary is a return-sell type, with the break of the support low leaning toward weaker buys.

9. Trade Ideas

① Breakout-follow Type

Priority:Low priority
Activation Conditions:Recover 60,930 on 15m close and clearly break above 61,000
Pre-entry:60,930 close recovery (15m)
Main Entry:Close recovery above 61,000–61,140 (1H)
Confirmation Candle:15m lead / validated on 1H
Target 1:61,140
Target 2:61,620–61,840
Initial Stop-Loss:Close below 60,570 (15m)
Core Stop-Loss:Close below 60,830
Strong Invalidations:Close below 60,310

Evaluation:
Upper timeframe is bearish, so breakout-follow buys are low priority. A recovery of 60,930 only confirms a short-term rebound. Only after a 1H close above 61,000–61,140 would the 61,620–61,840 direction be targeted.

② Dip-Buy Type

Priority:Secondary
Standard Conditions:Maintain 60,310–59,960 and form a double bottom or higher lows on the 15m
Shallow Dip Conditions:Even if the dip candidate zone is not met, recover 60,930 on a 15m close
Pre-entry:60,930 close recovery (15m)
Main Entry:Close recovery above 61,000–61,140 (1H)
Target 1:61,140
Target 2:61,620–61,840
Pre-entry Stop-Loss:Close below 60,310 (15m)
Core Stop-Loss:Close below 59,960
Complete Exit:Close below 59,960 (1H)

Evaluation:
Buying is contrarian. Enter only if a rebound forms without breaking 59,960, and close above 60,930. Shallow-dip conditions have weaker justification; use a smaller 15m lead and confirm core position on a 1H close.

③ Return Sell Type

Priority:Main
Standard Conditions:Recover to 60,830–60,930 or 61,000–61,140, then observe upper-side cap
Shallow Return Conditions:Even if return candidate zone is not met, break 60,310 on 15m close
Pre-entry:60,310 close break (15m)
Main Entry:59,960 close break (1H)
Confirmation Candle:15m lead / 1H confirmation to full position
Target 1:59,960
Target 2:59,500–59,300
Pre-entry Stop-Loss:Recovery to 60,930 close (15m)
Core Stop-Loss:Recovery to 61,140 close
Strong Invalidation:Recovery above 61,620 close

Evaluation:
During the day, the primary idea is a return-sell pattern. If 60,830–61,140 holds resistance, expect a retest of 59,960. If a close below 59,960 occurs, target the 59,500–59,300 zone. Buying is only considered after 60,930 recovery and 61,000–61,140 close, and then aim for 61,620–61,840.

④ Break of Support Low Type

Priority:Near-main
Activation Conditions:Close below 59,960
Pre-entry:59,960 close break (15m)
Main Entry:59,960 close break (1H)
Confirmation Candle:15m lead / 1H confirmation to full position
Target 1:59,500–59,300
Target 2:58,630
Pre-entry Stop-Loss:Recovery to 59,960 close (15m)
Core Stop-Loss:Recovery to 60,310 close
Complete Exit:Recovery to 60,830 close

Evaluation:
59,960 is the night low and a critical support low on both 15m and 1H. If closed below here, the buying support near 60,000 fails and the priority shifts to 59,500–59,300.

10. Current Priority

Main: ③ Return Sell Type
Secondary: ④ Break of Support Low Type
Sub: ② Dip-buy Type
Low Priority: ① Breakout-follow Type

In practice, the key triggers are: upside 60,930 close recovery and downside 59,960 close break. A break below 60,310 is treated as a leading sell trigger.

11. Current Action

During the day, favor the return-sell pattern as the main idea.
Sell when price stalls around 60,830–61,000 on the upside.
If the rebound is shallow, lead with a break below 60,310, and core when 59,960 breaks.
Buy on a recovery to 60,930, and core on a recovery to 61,000–61,140.
If 59,960 breaks on a close, favor 59,500–59,300.

12. Cautions

60,000 is a psychological round number; around 59,960, a bounce is common. Therefore, a break below 59,960 should be confirmed by a close, not just a shadow. Since both lower and higher timeframe levels are close, operate on the 15m lead and confirm on the 1H close to enter full position.

If 60,930 recovers, there is a chance of a short-term squeeze back to 61,000–61,140. However, given the 4H and 1H are bearish, buying should be limited to short-term only.

13. About this Report

This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.

It organizes market environment, important price levels, and trading ideas based on close-based swing structure, support lows, return highs, and conversion prices.

※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Trading decisions are the reader’s responsibility.
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