NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-19 16:10
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
● = held / ✕ = close price breakout already / ↑ = upside breakout leading to rise / ↓ = downside breakout leading to fall. Prices are read from the chart. Judgments prioritize close price confirmation.
2. Important Price Zones
3. 4H Analysis
The 4H is in a downtrend with a downward wave. After breaking the 4H support at 61,800, it fell to 60,420 and further to 60,310. It has retraced to 60,880 now, but on the 4H it is still considered a pullback within a downtrend.
After breaking below the 20EMA/20SMA, it moved toward the 120MA, indicating the major trend has not resumed upward. Even if it recovers to 61,840, it remains within the retracement range; until it recovers to 62,190, 63,280, and ultimately 63,860, it is not judged as a resumed uptrend.
4. 1H Analysis
The 1H shows a response but the wave is downward. It fell from 61,840 to 60,310, then rebounded to 60,880. The range 61,620–61,840 tends to act as a selling return zone.
In the 1H, if 61,190 is recovered, it indicates a short-term rebound continuation; if 61,620 is recovered, it tests 61,840. If 60,830 is broken again, retest of 60,310 and if 60,310 breaks, priority shifts toward 60,000.
5. 15m Analysis
The 15m is in a downtrend, but a rebound from 60,310 has returned it to an upmove. A short-term rebound is present, but since 61,190 has not been recovered, it remains within a range where selling the rally has the edge.
If 60,830 is held and 61,190 is recovered, it may attempt a return toward 61,620. Conversely, if 60,830 breaks, it tends to retest 60,310.
6. Conclusion
Night session should focus on selling the rebound. There is a rebound from 60,310, but unless 61,190 is recovered, it remains a retracement after a decline. If 60,830 breaks, selling is preferred; if 60,310 breaks, the move becomes more bearish. Buying is favored if 61,190 recovers, and becomes a stronger setup if 61,620 recovers.
7. Verification of Previous Trade Idea
8. MTF State
4H remains biased to downside overall. Even with a rebound from 60,310, until it surpasses 61,840–62,190, selling the rally takes priority.
The 1H shows a slightly neutral directional feel, but the wave is downward. As long as 61,620 is not recovered, the rebound-for-selling edge remains.
The 15m is the primary entry decision frame. Sell on a break of 60,830 with priority, and a break of 60,310 confirms the short-term downside. Buy on a recovery to 61,190 with a first target at 61,620 noted, and a follow-up target at 61,840–62,110.
Overall verdict
MTF indicates higher timeframes biased to downside, with a temporary short-term rebound. For night trading, the first decision point is the 60,830–61,190 range. If 61,190 is not recovered, expect a return decline; if 61,620 is recovered, consider a rebound toward 61,840–62,110.
9. Trade Ideas
- Priority:Low priority
- Activation condition:Recover 61,190 with a 15m close and clearly break above 61,620
- Forecast entry:61,190 close recovered (15m)
- Actual entry:61,620 close recovered (1H)
- Confirmation bar:15m lead / confirmed on 1H to full position
- Target 1:61,840
- Target 2:62,110–62,190
- Early stop loss:Close below 60,830 (15m)
- Full position stop loss:Close below 61,190
Evaluation:
Because higher timeframes are in a downtrend, breakout buys are low priority. A recovery to 61,190 alone only yields a short-term rebound. Only after recovering 61,620 on a 1H close would targeting 61,840–62,110 be considered.
- Priority:Secondary
- Standard condition:Dip to 60,830–60,310 and form a double bottom or higher lows on 15m
- Shallow dip condition:If dip candidate zone not reached, recover 61,190 on 15m close
- Early entry:61,190 close recovered (15m)
- Actual entry:61,620 close recovered (1H)
- Target 1:61,620
- Target 2:61,840–62,110
- Early stop loss:Close below 60,830 (15m)
- Full position stop loss:Close below 61,190
- Complete exit:Close below 60,310
Evaluation:
Buying is relatively contrarian. If a rebound forms without breaking 60,310, and 61,190 is recovered by close, target a short-term rebound. However, shallow dip criteria have weaker justification than standard conditions; keep 15m entries smaller and full position on 1H close below 60,310.
- Priority:Main
- Standard condition:Retrace up to 61,140–61,620, or around 61,840, then face resistance
- Shallow retrace condition:Even if retrace candidate zone not reached, break 60,830 on 15m close
- Early entry:60,830 close broken (15m)
- Actual entry:60,310 close broken (1H)
- Judgment bar:15m lead / 1H confirmed for full position
- Target 1:60,310
- Target 2:60,000–59,500
- Early stop loss:Recover to 61,190 close (15m)
- Full position stop loss:61,620 close recovered
- Strong invalidation:61,840 close recovered
Evaluation:
Night session’s main idea is to sell the rallies. A rebound from 60,310 exists, but unless 61,190 is recovered, the move remains a retrace after a drop. Shallow dip criteria have weaker justification; keep 15m lead smaller and full position on 1H close below 60,310.
- Priority:Bias toward bullish
- Activation condition:Close below 60,310
- Early entry:60,310 close broke (15m)
- Actual entry:60,000 close broke (1H)
- Judgment bar:15m lead / 1H confirm to full position
- Target 1:60,000
- Target 2:59,500–59,300
- Early stop loss:Recover to 60,310 close (15m)
- Full position stop loss:Close recovered to 60,830
- Complete exit:61,190 close recovered
Evaluation:
60,310 is the intraday low; breaking it would intensify testing toward 60,000. If 60,000 is broken on a 1H close, expect 59,500–59,300.
Current Priority Order
- Main: ③ Retracement Sell Type
- Main-biased: ④ Break of Pullback Low Type
- Secondary: ② Dip-buy Type
- Low priority: ① Breakout-following Type
10. Current Action
Night session prioritizes selling the rally. Sell if breaks 60,830 first, then 60,310 for full position. Buying if 61,190 recovers first, then 61,620 recovers for full position.
If 60,310 breaks, target 60,000. If 61,620 recovers, look for a rebound toward 61,840–62,110.
11. Caution
During the day session, prices fell to 60,310 and rebounded; night session is prone to short-term fluctuations. Breakouts are judged by close price, not wicks.
Within the 60,830–61,190 range, avoid forcing a direction. Sell on break below 60,830; buy on recovery above 61,190.
12. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
Organizes market environment, key price zones, and trade ideas based on close-price swing structure, pullback lows, return highs, and turning prices.
※This report is for information purposes and not financial advice. Investment decisions are the reader’s own responsibility.
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