NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-19 6:30
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
● = Hold / ✕ = Close price breakout occurred / ↑ = Breakout to the upside signals rising trend / ↓ = Breakout to the downside signals falling trend. Prices based on chart reading. Judgments prioritize the closing price confirmation.
2. Important Price Ranges
3. 4H Analysis
In 4H, the rally stalled at 63,860 yen high and has fallen below the pullback low of 61,800 yens on a confirmed candle, entering a retrace phase. It has rebounded to 60,420 yen, but currently remains in a downtrend for now.
In 4H, after breaking below the 20EMA and 20SMA, it has moved toward the 120MA direction, suggesting a potential transition from a range breakout after an uptrend to a downtrend. For a major uptrend resumption, a recovery to at least 62,190–63,280 yen is needed, and ultimately a renewed break above 63,860 yen.
4. 1H Analysis
1H is in a downtrend with a downward wave. It rebounded from 60,420 to around 61,840, but did not reach the 62,190 retrace high, currently around 61,410.
A short-term rebound remains, but if resistance holds near 61,650–61,840, the price may attempt the 60,830–60,420 direction again. Conversely, a daily close above 61,840 would favor continuation toward 62,110–62,190.
5. 15m Analysis
15m shows an uptrend and rising impulse. It rebounded from 60,830 and is around 61,410. Short-term buying pressure persists, but the focus is whether 61,650 and 61,840 can be breached.
If 61,190 is broken, short-term rebound may fade; breaking 60,830 would imply a collapse of the 15m upward wave and a retest toward 60,420 becomes likely.
6. Conclusion
During the day session, the price is in a short-term rebound within a higher-timeframe downtrend. If 61,650–61,840 is broken upward, expect a continuation toward 62,110–62,190. If 61,190 is broken, the rebound is favored to fade, prioritizing a retest of 60,420 below 60,830.
7. Validation of Last Trade Idea
8. MTF State
In 4H, after breaking below the 20EMA and 20SMA, price moved further toward the 120MA direction. Therefore, current rebound is not a resume of the major uptrend but a return within a downtrend.
In 1H, rebound from 60,420 rose to 61,840 but failed to clear the higher retrace high. If it stalls at 61,650–61,840, consider continuing the sell-off toward 60,830–60,420.
15m is a timeframe for entry decisions. Buy first on 61,650 recovery and confirm with 61,840 recovery. For selling, act on 61,190 break as a lead, with 60,830 break confirming entry.
Overall Judgment
MTF overall: 4H and 1H are in a down-dominant state, while 15m shows a short-term rebound. During the day, the key is confirming a move above 61,650–61,840. If stalled, consider selling; if broken, expect a continuation toward 62,110–62,190.
9. Trade Ideas
- Priority：Sub
- Activation Conditions：Recover 61,650 on 15m close and clearly break above 61,840
- Leading Entry：61,650 close recovery (15m)
- Main Entry：61,840 close recovery (1H)
- Confirmation Bar：15m lead / 1H confirmed to add position
- Target 1：62,110
- Target 2：62,190–63,280
- Leading Loss Cut：Break below 61,190 close (15m)
- Main Position Loss Cut：Break below 61,650 close
Evaluation：
A scenario for buying if short-term rebound continues. Since higher-timeframe remains bearish, simply recovering 61,650 is not strongly bullish. If 61,840 can be recovered on 1H close, target a rebound toward 62,110–62,190.
- Priority：Sub
- Activation Conditions：Hold 61,190–60,830 and form higher lows or a double bottom on 15m
- Entry Price：61,650 close recovery
- Confirmation Bar：15m close
- Strong Confirmation：61,840 close recovery
- Target 1：61,840
- Target 2：62,110–62,190
- Stop：Break below 60,830 close
- Full Exit：Break below 60,420 close
Evaluation：
Rebound from 60,420 is ongoing, but higher-timeframes remain down. Dip-buying should hold 61,190–60,830 and limit to a return to 61,650.
- Priority：Main
- Activation Conditions：Hold at 61,650–61,840 or near 62,110 to cap upside
- Leading Entry：61,190 close below (15m)
- Main Entry：60,830 close below (1H)
- Confirmation Bar：15m lead / 1H confirmed to add position
- Target 1：60,420
- Target 2：60,000–59,500
- Leading Loss Cut：61,650 close recovery (15m)
- Main Loss Cut：61,840 close recovery
- Strong Disabling：62,110 close recovery
Evaluation：
The day’s main idea is a retrace-sell type. With 4H and 1H in down direction, if upside is capped at 61,650–61,840, target 60,830–60,420 again. If 61,190 breaks, 15m lead; if 60,830 breaks, 1H confirmation to add is required.
- Priority：Tilt toward bear
- Activation Conditions：Close below 60,830
- Leading Entry：60,830 close below (15m)
- Main Entry：60,420 close below (1H)
- Confirmation Bar：15m lead / 1H confirmed to add position
- Target 1：60,420
- Target 2：60,000–59,500
- Leading Loss Cut：60,830 close recovery (15m)
- Main Loss Cut：61,190 close recovery
- Full Withdrawal：61,650 close recovery
Evaluation：
60,830 is a 15m pullback low. Breaking below this collapses the short-term rebound. If 60,420 closes below on a 1H close, priority shifts to downward continuation toward 60,000.
Current Priority
- Main: ③ Retrace Sell Type
- Main-side: ④ Dip-Low Break Type
- Sub: ② Dip-buying Type
- Sub: ① Break-following Type
10. Invalidating Lines While Holding Position
11. Current Actions
During the day session, monitor whether upside is capped at 61,650–61,840. For selling, lead on 61,190 break and primary on 60,830 break. For buying, lead on 61,650 recovery and primary on 61,840 recovery.
If price falls below 60,420, prioritize a downtrend resume. If 62,110 is recovered, upside bias weakens temporarily.
12. Cautions
Higher-timeframe is down while lower-timeframe is up, creating a whipsaw risk. Entries should be based on 15m lead and 1H confirmation for position entry. Do not judge based on wicks only.
The 61,650–61,840 battle is the most critical. If not broken, expect a retrace sell; if broken, anticipate a continuation toward 62,110–62,190.
13. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
Organizes market environment, important price levels, and trade ideas based on closing-price swing structure, pullback lows, retrace highs, and turning prices.
※This report is for information purposes and not trading advice. Investment decisions are the reader's responsibility.
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