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ゴゴ太郎
05/17/2026 20:10
Release： 05/17/2026 20:10
Update： 05/17/2026 20:10
ゴゴ太郎
Investment style : Day Trade
Investment career : 5-7 years
Investment amount : 50 million - 100 million JPY
My name is Gogo Taro. I am a part-time trader specializing in GOLD (XAUUSD). While working as a company employee, I have practiced rule-based trading for over five years. In the first few years I moved by emotion and incurred losses, but after I committed to "enter with a basis and protect with rules," the results changed. Every day at lunchtime, I post GOLD market analyses. Instead of difficult theory, I keep it simple with "where to enter today." I strive to make the basis understandable even for beginners. Let's build up trades with solid justification together.
Article cover image

[May 18] "The evidence speaks softly, addressing you."

急落したGOLD、戻り売りは入れていますか？Has the price of GOLD that plunged rapidly been met with a rebound selling opportunity?
ぼくも以前は、こういう相場で「もう下がりきったはずだ」と逆張りしていました。I used to go against the trend in markets like this, thinking, “it should have dropped completely by now.”
それで何度もやられました。And I got burned many times because of it.
今日はその逆に、どうして売り目線を変えないのかを整理します。Today, on the contrary, I will explain why I am not changing the selling stance.

今日の相場状況

Currently, the price is hovering around 4,537 dollars.
Looking at the 1-hour EMA (moving average), the short-, mid-, and long-term lines are stacked from top to bottom as 200, 75, and 20, forming what is called a downtrend arrangement. The RSI (relative strength index) is at 35.43, well below 50.
On the 4-hour chart, RSI is as low as 24.95, showing how sharp the recent drop has been. The 15-minute Bollinger Band is expanding downward, indicating that the downside energy remains in the short term.
In short, selling pressure persists across all timeframes, and there is little technical basis for a rebound.

ゴゴ太郎の見方

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make your own trading decisions.
If the price temporarily rebounds and returns to around the 1H EMA20 (4,566 dollars), that area is seen as a candidate line for selling on the bounce. However, as noted below, today there is no point meeting the RR (risk-reward) criteria, so I will stay on the sidelines.
On the other hand, if there is a clear break below the previous day’s low (4,511 dollars), further decline could accelerate. In that case, I plan to watch the situation with the next support line in mind.
For both scenarios, I am viewing them with the premise “do not move until the basis is solid.”

今日の参考ライン

Today, there are no points meeting RR1.5, so I will refrain from entering. The following are for reference:
▼ Short (selling on the bounce)
Reference zone: 4,626–4,636 dollars (basis: 1H EMA75)
Reference take-profit line: 4,515 dollars
Reference stop-loss line: 4,710 dollars
Estimated RR: 1.47 (below the standard; personal judgment)
※ These are educational reference values. Please make actual trading decisions yourself.
※ Since RR is below 1.5, I recommend refraining from entering this zone. Be sure to confirm your stop-loss settings.

重要ライン

Resistance ①: 4,570 dollars (basis: 1H EMA20)
Resistance ②: 4,630 dollars (basis: 1H EMA75)
Resistance ③: 4,690 dollars (basis: previous day high)
Support ①: 4,510 dollars (basis: previous day low)
1H EMA200: 4,655 dollars (breaking this line accelerates the rise)

今日の一言

“Waiting without basis is doubt, but waiting with a basis is a decision.”

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make your own trading decisions.
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Feel free to leave any questions or impressions in the comments.