The Japanese text translates to: [The USD/JPY is characterized by a lack of direction, and in the current market, the ability to wait is also important]

【Dollar/yen characterized by a lack of directional clarity; in the current market, the power to wait is also important】

The current dollar-yen market is staying in the high range and while the price remains elevated, it has become harder to discern a clear trend. Not long ago, there was a straightforward flow of “buy on dips and it will return,” but recently even when it rises, momentum isn’t sustained, and when it falls, it doesn’t collapse sharply as often as before.

In other words, the dollar-yen is gradually turning into a market that cannot move decisively in either direction.

A major backdrop is the wary stance toward possible FX intervention by Japanese authorities. The 160 yen level is strongly in focus, and the belief that “there is a possibility of yen-buying intervention again at this level” remains entrenched. As a result, aggressive buying chasing highs has become more difficult.

On the other hand, the dollar itself remains solid. In the United States, inflation slowdown is progressing, but the Fed remains cautious about rapid rate cuts. In other words, U.S. interest rates are not likely to fall sharply, and from the perspective of the interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S., there is still a supporting structure for the dollar-yen.

Thus, the dollar-yen tends to be in a very tricky, range-bound price action where it cannot rise dramatically but also cannot fall dramatically.

Moreover, developments in the Middle East and movements in crude oil prices add to market instability. Rising oil prices can increase Japan’s import costs and be seen as a factor to sell the yen. Yet, at the same time, geopolitical risks can trigger yen buying as a safe asset, so market reactions are not consistent.

Additionally, market views on the Bank of Japan confuse investors. While policy rates remain unchanged, the market still speculates about when the next rate hike will occur. However, given concerns about the economy and overseas risks, a rapid tightening is unlikely.

This mix of “expectation” and “caution” makes it hard for the overall market to discern a direction.

In this environment, individual traders should focus on not forcing gains every time.

Recent markets have seen more times of wobbling up and down rather than clean trends. Therefore, the decision to “enter because it’s moving” tends to result in whipsaw losses.

In particular, the London and early New York session often see rapid price movements, followed by full retracements, which is not uncommon. Now, the ability to wait for a real opportunity is extremely important.

For example, restrict yourself to times you are comfortable with, avoid trading around key indicators, and rest when entry conditions aren’t aligned—such judgments can ultimately stabilize your total profits and losses.

The current dollar-yen market is characterized more by “noise” than directional clarity. Therefore, now might be a timing where reducing unnecessary losses—focusing on not losing money unnecessarily—could help you interact with the market more effectively.