NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-15 16:10
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
● = Maintained / ✕ = Close price breakout already occurred / ↓ = Break below indicates downward turning / ↑ = Break above indicates upward turning. Values are read from the chart. For important line establishment, prioritize closing price confirmation.
2. Important Price Ranges
3. 4H Analysis
【4H / SW3 / Relaxation・Downward Wave】
The 4H shifted from an uptrend to relaxation, with a downward wave. After making a high at 63,860, price breached the 20 EMA/20 SMA, moving toward testing the major pullback low at 61,800.
In the daytime, a break below 61,800 on a 1H close occurred, and the low reached 61,000. At this point, the DOWN② pullback-low-break type is established. Although there was a sharp rebound to 62,040 later, since the 1H close met the condition, the establishment decision remains valid.
However, with the current strong rebound above 61,800, the stance is no longer a pure short; monitor whether price can fall again below 61,800 or whether the rebound to 62,550–62,860 can suppress upside.
4. 1H Analysis
【1H / SW2 / Downward・Downward Wave】
The 1H remains in a downward trend with a continuing downward wave. After forming a return high at 63,280, price breached 62,860, then 62,550, and finally dropped below 61,800 on a 1H close to 61,000.
Thus, on a 1H basis, the pullback-low-break type short was clearly established. Target 1 at 61,000 was reached, and previous Bar ④ is evaluated as “established and target reached.”
Currently rebounding from 61,000 to 62,040. While still biased to the downside on a 1H basis, the strong rebound after the drop means waiting for a rally up to 62,550–62,860 to see if upside pressure can be capped rather than pursuing more selling.
5. 15m Analysis
【15m / SW1 / Relaxation・Ascending Wave】
The 15m is in relaxation, but has returned to an upward wave from 61,000 due to a sharp rebound. However, higher-timeframe weakness means that a rebound on its own does not confirm a bullish entry.
The current pullback candidate zone spans 61,800–62,550. Reaching the zone alone does not imply a buy. Look for a double bottom on 15m, higher lows, or a 61,800 hold followed by a 62,550 close to confirm.
Initial confirmation of a short-term rebound is a 62,550 close; stronger confirmation is a 62,860 close. Until 63,280 recovers, treat as a short-term rebound only.
6. Conclusion
As of 15:47, the previous DOWN② pullback-low-break type has been established once 1H closes below 61,800, and subsequently reached 61,000. This is not partial, but established with target reached. However, the market has rebounded to around 62,040, so from here, do not chase but look for a retracement confirmation. 15m shows rebound, while 1H and 4H remain bearish. The focus is whether price can recover to 62,550–62,860 or whether a renewed selling pressure will resume.
- Upward scenario:Maintain 61,800 and recover 62,550 with a 15m close to evaluate a short-term rebound.
- Downward scenario:If price stalls under 62,550–62,860 and closes below 61,800 on 1H, downside trend continues.
- Current assessment:DOWN② established and target reached. Next, assess whether retracement selling continues or a rebound from 61,000 persists.
7. Validation of Previous Trade Idea
Condition:Re-break 63,860 with a close.
Result:No re-break of 63,860 occurred; price moved downward significantly.
Evaluation:Not established. Break-following type conditions not met. No ongoing recommendation.
Condition：Maintain 61,800 on higher-timeframe close and recover 62,550.
Result：61,800 breached on 1H close to 61,000. Currently rebounding to 62,040, but 62,550 recovery not yet achieved.
Evaluation：Not established. Reaching 61,800 alone is not enough to buy. Rebound pattern started but not yet recovery to 62,550; thus not established.
Condition：Rally to 62,550–62,860 caps upside and 15m returns to a downward wave.
Result：Could not recover 62,860; downward movement continued to 61,800 and then 61,000.
Evaluation：Established. Reached Target 1 at 61,800 and extended to 61,000. Currently in a post-selloff rebound; shift to waiting for retracement rather than chasing.
Condition：Clearly break below 61,800 on 1H close.
Result：Broke 61,800 on 1H close and fell to 61,000. Target 1 reached. Rebounded sharply to 62,040 afterward.
Evaluation：Established and target reached. Since 1H close met the condition, subsequent rebound does not negate establishment. However, given the sharp rebound after reaching 61,000, partial profit-taking is advised, and for the remaining, watch 61,800 recovery. If price stabilizes above 61,800, consider finishing the ongoing recommendation or switching to a return-selling approach.
Last time, both③ Return Sell Type and④ Pullback Low Break Type functioned clearly. The focus this time is whether the rebound from 61,000 can reach 62,550–62,860, or whether a renewed retracement will occur.
8. MTF Consistency
MTF shows a conflict: 15m rebounding while 1H and 4H remain bearish. Entries require rebound confirmation; sells require retracement confirmation.
9. Trade Ideas
Activation Condition：Re-break 63,860 with a close.
Judgment：Current priority is low. First recover 62,550, 62,860, and 63,280.
Target:64,000 → 64,300 → 64,500
Invalidation Line:Close below 63,280
Activation Condition：Maintain 61,800 on higher-timeframe close and form rebound on 15m.
Trigger Price：62,550 close recovery (15m) / Strong confirmation: 62,860 close recovery (15m)
Judgment：Pullback zone is wide (61,800–62,550); reaching zone alone is not a buy signal. Look for a double bottom on 15m, rising lows, or 62,550 close recovery to confirm.
Target:62,550 → 62,860 → 63,280
Invalidation Line：Close below 61,000 / Break 61,800 again on 1H close
Activation Condition：Rally to 62,550–62,860 caps upside and 15m returns to a downward wave.
Trigger Price：61,800 close breach (1H)
Judgment：Downward main line. However, after a sharp rebound from 61,000, wait for retracement rather than chasing.
Target：61,800 → 61,000 → 60,270
Invalidation Line：62,860 close recovery / Strong invalidation requires 63,280 close recovery
Activation Condition：Clear break below 61,800 on 1H close; cannot recover to 61,800 on a pullback.
Judgment：Previously established. Next, see whether price breaks 61,800 again on 1H close or recovers and moves to a retracement sell.
Target：61,000 → 60,270 → 60,000
Invalidation Line：Recovery of 62,550 close
10. Invalidation Lines for Open Positions
11. Current Actions
As of now, DOWN② is established and target reached. Any new short should be awaited around 62,550–62,860 rather than near 61,000.
Bulls: maintain 61,800 on higher-timeframe close and wait for 15m signals like double bottom or rising lows, and a close above 62,550.
If 61,800 is broken again on a 1H close, the pullback-low-break type resumes. If 62,550 is recovered on a close, switch to a short-term rebound stance.
12. Caution
61,800 is an important level aligned with the 4H pullback low; this time, since it was breached on a 1H close, the DOWN② pullback-low-break type is considered established.
After a sharp drop, reversals can be swift. For both selling and buying, prioritize closing price confirmation and rebound patterns.
If the pullback zone is wide, do not treat mere zone arrival as confirmation. React to the zone lower bound, observe 15m rebound pattern, and decide after a close above the zone upper bound or midpoint resistance.
13. About This Report
This report uses the Dow Theory Indicator to analyze NK225 futures across 4H / 1H / 15m timeframes.
It organizes market environment, important price ranges, and trade ideas based on closing-price swing structure, pullback lows, return highs, and turning prices.
※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Investment decisions are your responsibility.
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