NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-14 16:00
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
● = held / ✕ = close break occurred / ↓ = breakdown to downtrend / ↑ = breakout to uptrend. Values are read from the chart.
2. Important Price Zones
3. 4H Analysis
【4H / SW3 / Up and Down Waves】
The 4H is maintaining an uptrend, but the wave pattern is turning into a downward wave. Price is capped at 63,810–63,860, and by close for the day it dropped to 62,720.
In the bigger picture, 61,800 remains intact, and the 4H uptrend itself has not collapsed. However, unless 63,860 is broken again on the upside, the 4H should be treated as a pullback within a high-price range.
Downward move is considered from 62,720, 61,800, and the direction of the green 120MA.
4. 1H Analysis
【1H / SW2 / Resistance and Downward Wave】
The 1H has retreated from uptrend to resistance, with a downward wave. After reaching 63,860, it reversed and fell through the 63,260–63,370 support band to 62,720.
This is a clear manifestation of the prior rebound-selling pattern. After breaking 63,370, it breached 63,260 and 63,070 in sequence, reaching 62,720.
From here, the focus is whether 62,720 can hold on a close. If held, a rebound remains possible, but a clear break would switch to a 1H push-low break pattern.
5. 15m Analysis
【15m / SW1 / Resistance and Downward Wave】
The 15m is in a resistance/downward-wave state. The decline from 63,860 is strong, with breaks below 63,440, 63,370, and 63,260, reaching 62,720.
In the short term, sellers hold the field, but the current price is near the 1H push-low at 62,720, so the focus shifts to whether it can break on a close rather than adding new shorts.
If 63,070 cannot recover, the downward pressure continues. If 63,260 can be recovered, a short-term rebound may be considered.
6. Conclusion
As of 15:45, the 4H remains in an uptrend but is entering a downward wave, while the 1H and 15m have shifted to resistance and downward waves. The previous rebound-selling pattern unfolded after breaking 63,370 and then 63,260 and 63,070 to reach 62,720. Currently at 62,720, the key question is whether the close can hold above this important push-low, or if a break will shift to a push-low breakdown.
- Upside:If 62,720 is held and 63,070 and 63,260 are recovered, a rebound is possible.
- Downside:A close below 62,720 could trigger a push-low breakdown toward 62,200–61,800.
- Current stance:Long positions based on chasing highs are over. In the short term, selling is favored, but since 62,720 has been reached, confirmation on close is required before continuing.
7. Verification of Last Trade Idea
Result：The upside break above 63,860 did not sustain and price fell to 62,720.
Assessment：Not established. Highs did not re-break. Breakout-follow-through recommendation closed.
Result：Support zone 63,260–63,440 failed to hold and price fell to 62,720.
Assessment：Not established. Pullback-buy invalidated. Support break ended the buying recommendation.
Result：Upside capped at 63,860; broke below 63,370, then 63,260 and 63,070, falling to 62,720.
Assessment：Established. Target 1: 63,260; Target 2: 63,070; Target 3: 62,720 reached. As of now, since 62,720 has been reached, the initial rebound-sell idea is paused. If 62,720 breaks, switch to ④ push-low-break pattern.
Result：Reached 62,720. Clear close breakdown confirmation is pending.
Assessment：Continue to monitor. Not yet achieved; if the close below 62,720 occurs, shift to the next downside scenario.
Last time, option ③ rebound-sell worked the best. It reached 62,720 after stalling at 63,860. Next time, confirm whether price can hold 62,720 and rebound, or break and move to ④ push-low-break pattern.
8. MTF Coherence
MTF indicates the higher-timeframe view is still bullish overall, but 1H and 15m are tilting downward. The current point is a crossroads between a deep pullback within the 4H uptrend and a move downward from the 1H push-low break.
9. Trade Ideas
Activation conditions：Re-break above 63,860 with a close, and hold above 63,810.
Judgment：Currently low priority. First, prices must recover in order: 63,260 → 63,370 → 63,860.
Target：64,000 → 64,300 → 64,500
Invalidation line：Close below 63,260
Activation：Hold close above 62,720 and 15m returns to an up-move from downward wave.
Judgment：Only valid if 62,720 holds. Check whether 63,070 and 63,260 can be recovered.
Target：63,070 → 63,260 → 63,440
Invalidation line：Close below 62,720
Activation：Rebound to 63,070–63,260 and then resume downward.
Judgment：Primary short-term path. Since price has already fallen to 62,720, wait for rebound rather than chasing sells.
Target：62,720 → 62,200 → 61,800
Invalidation line：Close above 63,370
Activation：Clear close below 62,720, and unable to recover 62,720 on a pullback.
Judgment：1H push-low-break scenario. If established, expect 62,200–61,800.
Target：62,200 → 61,800 → 61,500
Invalidation line：Close recovery above 63,070
10. In-Position Invalidation Lines
11. Current Actions
As of now, price has reached 62,720. Prioritize close confirmation over chasing sells.
If 62,720 holds and 15m returns to an up-move, consider a short-term rebound-buy pattern. Conversely, if 62,720 closes below and cannot recover, switch to a pull-low-break pattern.
A rebound-selling approach may be considered if price retraces to 63,070–63,260 and meets selling pressure.
12. Cautions
After reaching 63,810, price has sharply reversed, and short-term buying advantage is temporarily over.
However, 62,720 is a key 1H push-low; a rebound is possible. Look for a close break, not just a wick.
The 4H still maintains the larger near-term support at 61,800, so a break of 62,720 alone does not confirm a 4H downtrend; consider 61,800 and the 120MA direction in your judgment.
13. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
It organizes market climate, important price zones, and trade ideas based on closing-price swing structure, push lows, rebound highs, and transition prices.
※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Investment decisions are the reader's responsibility.
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