NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-14 11:52
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
●=Hold / ✕=Close price breakout occurred / ↓= Bearish conversion on breach / ↑= Bullish conversion on breakout. Values read from chart.
2. Important Price Ranges
3. 4H Analysis
【4H / SW3 / Rest & Upward Wave】
The 4H timeframe maintains an upward wave, but the trend indicator shows rest. After breaking above 63,810 to reach 63,860, it has since pulled back to 63,480.
The broader trend remains upward, but after reaching 63,810, it couldn’t extend, so short-term profit-taking pressure has emerged. From here, defending the 63,260〜63,440 zone becomes important rather than chasing new highs.
The 4H remains above the short-term moving average, so there is no clear signal of a downside reversal yet. For downside, watch if it breaks 62,720 or 61,800 for a total judgment.
4. 1H Analysis
【1H / SW2 / Upward / Upward Wave】
The 1H remains in an uptrend and upward wave. After breaking 63,260, there was a pullback to 62,720, then a renewed rise to 63,860.
This pattern reflects the ideal continuation: pullback after return high breakout, followed by another rise. However, after reaching 63,860, upside momentum slowed and is being pulled back currently.
In 1H, 63,260 is the most critical support-confirmation line. If held, the post-breakback entry stance remains intact. If 63,260 closes below, expect a risk of a breakout failure and a move toward 63,070–62,720.
5. 15m Analysis
【15m / SW1 / Rest & Bearish Wave】
The 15m has shifted to a rest and bearish wave. It rose to 63,860 intraday, then short-term profit-taking pushed it down to 63,480.
This is a short-term corrective phase after a rise, not a full-on bearish tilt yet. The focus is on holding 63,440〜63,370, or at worst, 63,260.
From here on 15m, we want to see if it resumes an upward wave. A test and hold near 63,260 and reclaiming above 63,440 would become a candidate for buy-the-break after a breakout.
6. Conclusion
As of 11:43, the 1H and 4H remain in uptrends/upward waves, while the 15m has entered a bearish wave after hitting 63,860, indicating a short-term pullback. The previous breakout-following move completed at 63,810, but now the market is not chasing new highs; it is waiting for support confirmation in the 63,440–63,260 area. The bias is generally bullish, but the next entry requires a pullback confirmation.
- Upside:If 63,260–63,440 is held and the 15m resumes upward wave, buy-the-dip can resume.
- Downside:If 63,260 breaks, breakout-support fails; a breach below 62,720 would undermine the 1H pullback case.
- Current Judgment:Higher timeframes are bullish. Short-term is in a high-price area adjustment. Prioritize pullback confirmation over chasing highs.
7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas
Condition:Close above 63,500 and then not stalling above 63,440–63,490.
Result:Broke above 63,500 to 63,860. Reached Target 1 at 63,810.
Evaluation:Approved. Target 1 reached. However, after reaching 63,860 it pulled back, so the breakout-following recommendation is paused. Switch to a pullback-buy scenario.
Condition:Dip to 63,260–63,370, hold on close, then 15m or 1H returns to upward wave.
Result:No large pullback; moved from 63,500 breakout to 63,860. Pullback formation as described has not been confirmed.
Evaluation:Not fulfilled. Pullback-buy conditions have not yet appeared. If this pullback can hold 63,260–63,440, it becomes the main line for future moves.
Condition:Near 63,810 or 63,490–63,500, upside capped, then close below 63,370.
Result:Broke above 63,810 to 63,860, then pulled back, but a clear close below 63,370 was not confirmed.
Evaluation:Partial fulfillment. High-side stall observed, but the required 63,370 close below not achieved. Not a continuing recommendation; wait for 63,370 break.
Condition:Close below 62,720 and unable to recover above 62,720 on a pullback.
Result:No breach of 62,720; upside preserved.
Evaluation:Not fulfilled. Pullback-low-break type not triggered. Bullish bias remains.
Previous main line was① breakout-following type, which reached 63,810. Currently in upper-zone adjustment after the breakout; next main line is② pullback-buy type. Focus is on whether 63,260–63,440 holds as support.
8. MTF Consistency
MTF is bullish on higher timeframes, but with 15m moving into a bearish wave, the short-term timing is awaiting pullback confirmation. If 63,260–63,440 holds and 15m returns to an upward wave, alignment toward the buying side is likely again.
9. Trade Ideas
Trigger:Close above 63,860, then do not stall above 63,810.
Judgment:Another attempt to push to 64,000 works. Currently pulling back from the high; need re-break confirmation.
Target Range:64,000 → 64,300 → 64,500
Invalidation Line:Close below 63,440
Trigger:Dip to 63,260–63,440 and 15m returns to an upward wave.
Judgment:Main line. After reaching 63,810 and profit-taking, aim to support the old return-high zone through a bounce.
Target Range:63,860 → 64,000 → 64,300
Invalidation Line:Close below 63,260 / Important line: close below 62,720
Trigger:Upside capped near 63,810–63,860, then close below 63,370.
Judgment:High-price stall type. Since higher-timeframe is bullish, priority is low unless 63,370 close is breached.
Target Range:63,260 → 63,070 → 62,720
Invalidation Line:Close above 63,860
Trigger:Close below 62,720 and unable to recover above 62,720 on a pullback.
Judgment:Scenario where 1H upward wave pullback buying becomes invalid. Until this is met, do not bias to the downside.
Target Range:62,200 → 61,800 → 61,500
Invalidation Line:Recovery of close above 63,070
10. In-Position Invalidation Lines
11. Current Actions
Currently, higher timeframes are bullish, but 15m is in a bearish wave with a short-term pullback. The base expectation remains to wait for a pullback buy.
For LONG: confirm support at 63,260–63,440 and wait for 15m to re-enter an upward wave. Rebreaking 63,860 should be treated as a separate follow-through case.
For SHORT: not ideal as a lead while 63,370 close remains above. Until 62,720 is breached, treat downside as a short-term correction.
12. Cautions
Because 63,810 target has been reached, short-term profit-taking is common. Even if higher timeframes are bullish, avoid jumping in from near-the-price levels without close confirmation.
Pullback buys require confirmation of support at 63,260–63,440 or wait for 15m upward-wave return. Do not count wicks-only breaks as valid; prioritize close confirmation.
13. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across 4H / 1H / 15m three timeframes.
It organizes market conditions, key price ranges, and trade ideas based on close-based swing structures, pullback lows, return highs, and conversion prices.
※This report is for information purposes only and not investment advice. Trading decisions are at your own risk.
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