I will proceed with a hesitant empathy-based approach.

There are days when you want to enter but you lack clear grounds—those days exist, right? This morning I opened the chart and felt the same. To put it briefly, the conclusion today is “to wait.”

Today's Market Situation

The current price is hovering around $4,691.

The EMA20 on the 1-hour chart (short-term moving average) is 4,694, and EMA75 (mid-term moving average) is 4,697, tightly clustered within a $3 range. The EMAs are entangled and there is no clear direction. The RSI (an indicator showing overbought/oversold) was 52.73 three hours ago, but now is 47.53, dipping below 50, indicating a slight downward pressure.

The previous day’s high is $4,727 and the previous day’s low is $4,638, giving a range of about $89. The current price sits roughly in the middle of that.

In short, both directions are possible, and the direction has not been decided yet.

Gogo Taro's View

This article reflects personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.

Today’s 1-hour chart shows the EMA20 below the EMA75. It looks like it may be moving toward a downtrend, but EMA200 (4,681) is still below EMA20. This is a sign of being in a transition phase—a setup not yet completed for a downward trend.

If the price clearly breaks above $4,727 (the previous day’s high), I would question a shift upward. If it drops below $4,638 (the previous day’s low), I would anticipate a acceleration downward.

I used to rush into entries in such indecisive markets, thinking I had to do something. The result, as you can imagine, was a series of stop-outs. Now I have learned to accept “not acting” as a decision as well.

Today I will keep both scenarios in mind and wait for one to become clear.

Today's Reference Line

There is no clear entry point meeting RR1.5 today, so I will refrain from entering. The following is for reference only.

▼ Short (selling on a bounce) Reference zone: $4,705–$4,715 (basis: 1H BB upper around $4,709.698) Reference take-profit line: $4,640 Reference stop-loss line: $4,720 (basis: 15M EMA200 + $20 → key level) Expected RR: 7.0 (reference value; entry below standard is at your own discretion) Note: These values are for educational reference only. Please make actual trading decisions yourself.

I will omit the breakout-sell justification today because I cannot derive the take-profit grounds after breaching the previous day’s low from the input numbers.

Important Lines

Resistance 1: $4,727 (basis: previous day’s high) Resistance 2: $4,697 (basis: 1H EMA75) Resistance 3: $4,695 (basis: 1H EMA20) Support 1: $4,638 (basis: previous day’s low) 1H EMA200: $4,681 (this line provides substantial support in the big picture)

A Word for Today

“Do not step into a place without grounds; just that alone increases your win rate.”

This article is an individual's analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk. If this was helpful, a follow would be appreciated. Feel free to ask questions or share impressions in the comments.