NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-14 06:23
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
● = hold / ✕ = close above/break confirmed / ↓ = breakdown below triggers downward reversal / ↑ = breakout above triggers upward reversal. Values read from chart.
2. Important Price Levels
3. 4H Analysis
【4H / SW3 / Upward & Upward Wave】
4H remains in an uptrend and upward wave. After pulling back from 63,810 to 61,800, it returned to 63,490, maintaining the higher-timeframe bullish trend.
The 4H pullback low of 58,630 remains well below, while recent price action holds near the high region as it approaches 62,720. This indicates an upward move continuing from a higher timeframe pullback and resuming higher.
The next focus is the re-test of 63,810. If price closes above here, 4H upward momentum is clearly intact. If it stalls near 63,810 and breaks below 63,260 or 62,720, it could indicate a pause in the rally and potential for a correction.
4. 1H Analysis
【1H / SW2 / Upward & Upward Wave】
1H remains in an uptrend and upward wave. After breaking above the 63,260 retracement high on the morning of 5/12, it exceeded 63,440 on 5/13, then pulled back to 62,720.
Subsequently, it re-broke 63,260 on the 1:00 bar, returning to an upward wave. The close on that bar marked an ideal back-entry candidate after a retracement following the breakout.
Now it has advanced to 63,490. The pullback buying after the 63,260 breakout functioned, and the mid-term focus is whether 63,260 can remain as support and allow another test of 63,810.
5. 15m Analysis
【15m / SW1 / Retracement & Upward Wave】
The 15m trend indicator shows a retracement, but the wave remains upward. In the short term, price has rebounded from 62,720 to break 63,070 and rise to 63,490.
On 15m, there isn’t a clean structure like the 1H “break retracement then clear pullback then wave reversal,” but price has continued higher without breaking much of the break level, despite some candlestick overlaps.
This movement can be viewed as a continuation after an unformed pullback. The near-term focus on 15m is whether 63,370 can be held; if so and 63,490 is surpassed, a re-test of 63,810 becomes more likely.
6. Conclusion
As of 06:00, 4H and 1H are in uptrend and upward wave, while 15m remains in a rising wave with retracement not yet formed. After the 63,260 retracement high broke, price pulled to 62,720, then re-broke 63,260 on the 1:00 bar and moved back into an upward wave. That close was an excellent back-entry position. Currently price has risen to 63,490, with the next focal point being the re-test of 63,810.
- Upside：Maintain around 63,490–63,500 to push toward 63,810 re-test.
- Downside：Break below 63,370 signals a short pause; breaking 63,260 undermines support post-break, and a break below 62,720 would undermine the dip-buying case.
- Current View：Primarily bullish. However, given the high price area, naturally wait for 63,260 support and the 15m re-acceleration before jumping in.
7. Validation of Previous Trade Ideas
Condition：Close above 63,440, then not stall above 63,440.
Result：Price moved above 63,440 again, rising to 63,490, but 63,810 was not reached.
Assessment：Partially valid. In high price zone, moved upward, but gains were limited. Target 1 of 63,810 not achieved.
Condition：Make a dip above 63,260 and hold it as support, then 15m or 1H returns to an upward wave.
Result：After breaking 63,260 on 1H, pulled to 62,720, then re-broke 63,260 on the 1:00 bar and rose to 63,490.
Assessment：Valid. A near-ideal back-entry type after a retracement following the break. Reached target 1 of 63,440; 63,810 not reached.
Condition：Close below 63,260 and fail to recover on the retracement.
Result：There were moments of dipping below 63,260, but later the 1:00 bar recovered 63,260 and moved upward.
Assessment：Not valid. Break below did not sustain; based on close, buying after break outweighed selling.
Condition：Close below 62,770 and fail to recover on the retracement.
Result：Pulled to 62,720 then recovered. Did not continue downward from the break-low.
Assessment：Not valid. Some wicks or temporary dips occurred, but not a sustained downward move on close. It instead became a buying opportunity after the pullback completion.
Last time, type ② dip-buy was the most effective. The post-breakback and re-rise wave with 63,260 break and 62,720 pullback, plus the 1:00 bar re-break of 63,260 were crucial. This time, prioritize post-break pullback and re-acceleration of upward wave.
8. MTF Consistency
MTF consistency is bullish. Notably, the pullback after the 1H retracement high break and subsequent recovery to the break level is strong. The 15m shows a continuation type with no clear wave reversal, and since it hasn’t broken the break level, short-term buying pressure remains.
9. Trade Ideas
Activation Condition：Close above around 63,500, then do not stall above 63,440–63,490.
Judgment：Break through the high region again toward 63,810. If 15m shows a candlestick but break level holds, continue.
Target Scenarios：63,810 → 64,000 → 64,300
Invalidation Line：Close below 63,370
Activation：Pull back to 63,260–63,370 and hold, then 15m or 1H resumes upward wave.
Judgment：Core scenario. Like the 1H breakout followed by pullback to 62,720 and re-break at 63,260, aim for retracement completion after breakout.
Target：63,490 → 63,810 → 64,000
Invalidation Line：Close below 62,720
Activation：Near 63,810 or around 63,490–63,500, price stalls, then closes below 63,370.
Judgment：Lower priority due to higher timeframe bias. Consider only if price stalls at highs and 15m shifts to a down wave.
Target：63,260 → 63,070 → 62,720
Invalidation Line：Close above 63,500
Activation：Close below 62,720 clearly, then fail to recover on the pullback.
Judgment：Break below would undermine dip-buying rationale; only if fulfilled, consider downward view.
Target：62,200 → 61,800 → 61,500
Invalidation Line：Close above 63,070
10. Invalidations While Holding a Position
11. Current Actions
Primarily prefer buying on dips. Especially confirm support near 63,260–63,370, then wait for 15m or 1H to revert to an upward wave again.
Since price has already risen to 63,490, jumping in near current price should be cautious. Break-following is valid only if price can hold around 63,500 close and shows acceleration toward 63,810.
Selling is difficult to justify until it closes below 63,370, and further below 63,260.
12. Cautions
1H showed a favorable pattern of a pullback then resumption above 63,260, but price is already in a higher-high zone. New long entries should prioritize pullback confirmations.
15m lacks a clear pullback; it continues upward while dipping with shadows. This is a strength but can also lead to sharp corrections after strong rallies.
Do not count wicks alone as valid breaks; prioritize close confirmations.
13. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across 4H / 1H / 15m three timeframes.
It organizes market context, key price levels, and trade ideas based on closing price swing structure, pullback lows, retracement highs, and conversion prices.
※This report is for information purposes only and not investment advice. Investment decisions are the reader’s responsibility.
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