NK225 futures MTF Dow Theory analysis report 2026-05-12 15:57
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
●＝Holding / ✕＝Close price break already / ↓＝break below indicates downtrend reversal / ↑＝break above indicates uptrend reversal. Values are read from the chart.
2. Important Price Zones
3. 4H Analysis
【4H / SW3 / Upward / Downward Waves】
The 4H remains in an uptrend, but the wave is a downwave. The overall upward structure has not yet broken, yet after the drop from 63,810, the upside has become heavier.
63,260 remains a key price to watch for an upside restart on the 4H. Unless recovered by close above this, the 4H should be viewed as a pullback within an uptrend.
As the 58,630 support low is being held, the long-term uptrend remains intact. However, since the short- to mid-term lean downward, buying awaits confirmation of a reversal.
4. 1H Analysis
【1H / SW2 / Reset・Downward Waves】
The 1H is a reset and downward wave. The 62,020 support low is being held, so it is not a complete mid-term breakdown, but after the 63,260 rejection, price has been pushed back to 62,660.
Until a close above 63,260, the 1H re-accumulation is not confirmed. Since price is below 62,720, a risk of another decline toward 62,360 is present.
If 62,360 closes below, the next focus becomes the 62,020 support low. A close below 62,020 would shift the view toward a mid-term expansion of the adjustment.
5. 15m Analysis
【15m / SW1 / Reset・Downward Waves】
The 15m is reset and in a downward wave. At 12:02 the uptrend label remained, but by 15:48 it shifted to reset, indicating the short-term uptrend regression failed.
The 62,720 support low has been broken on close. The current price of 62,660 is below that, making short-term rallies more likely to be sold into.
To reassess the upside, first recover 62,890 on a close, then break above 63,260. If 62,890 cannot be recovered, expect a move toward 62,360.
6. Conclusion
As of 15:48, the 4H remains in an uptrend but with a downward wave, the 1H is reset toward a downward wave, and the 15m has shifted to a reset/downward wave. While the broad upward structure remains, the short- to mid-term failed to rejoin higher, increasing the chance of a pullback. Current stance: “short-term and mid-term pullback within a 4H uptrend,” waiting for a recovery to 62,890, then a break above 63,260 to rejoin higher levels.
- Upward:A close recovery above 62,890 is a short-term reversal candidate; a close above 63,260 confirms rejoin.
- Downward:Price staying below 62,720 with a break below 62,360 warns of a test toward 62,020.
- Current Judgment:Cannot chase highs. Affected by upper-timeframe uptrend, avoid chasing too high; expect pullbacks.
7. Verification of Previous Trade Ideas
Conditions：Close above 63,160, then close above 63,260.
Result：There were moves back to around 63,260, but no clear close above. Subsequently fell below 62,720 to 62,660.
Evaluation：Not established. No rejoin above; back-entry long was not taken.
Conditions：Create a dip between 62,360 and 62,720, then confirm support with a close and 15m returns to uptrend.
Result：62,720 could not be sustained; fell to 62,660. Did not reach 62,360.
Evaluation：Not established. Support at 62,720 could not be confirmed, uptrend return not confirmed.
Conditions：Upper limit capped at 63,160–63,260, close below 62,720.
Result：Upper at 63,260 kept down; broke below 62,720 to 62,660.
Evaluation：Established. The pullback-selling type worked. However, 62,360 was not reached; Target 1 not achieved. Considered a short-term pullback within a higher-timeframe uptrend.
Conditions：Close below 62,360, and cannot recover above 62,360 on a pullback.
Result：62,360 break did not occur.
Evaluation：Not established. Not a mid-term breakdown; currently within a short-term pullback.
Upside stalls at 63,260; downside has not yet broken 62,360. The next focus is whether 62,890 recovers to move higher or 62,360 breaks to test 62,020.
8. MTF Consistency
MTF consistency leans downward. However, the 4H broad uptrend remains, so if selling, be cautious of rebounds at 62,360 and 62,020.
9. Trade Ideas
Activation Condition：Recover 62,890 on close, then close above 63,260.
Judgment：Aimed to confirm the end of the 15m downwave and break of the 1H return high. If 63,260 is not reached, skip.
Target：63,390 → 63,810 → 64,000
Invalidation Line：Close below 62,720
Activation Condition：Decline halts between 62,360 and 62,020; after a close above, 15m returns to upwave.
Judgment：Only valid after a confirmed low. Decide after confirming a pullback in the uptrend on higher timeframes.
Target：62,720 → 62,890 → 63,260
Invalidation Line：Close below 62,020
Activation Condition：Upper side capped between 62,720 and 62,890, 15m resumes downward.
Judgment：Aiming for continued 15m reset/downward wave. Limited to short-term pullback due to higher-timeframe uptrend.
Target：62,360 → 62,020 → 61,800
Invalidation Line：Recovery above 62,890 on close
Activation Condition：Close below 62,360, and cannot recover above 62,360 on a pullback.
Judgment：Test toward 62,020. Close below 62,020 on close would strongly warn of mid-term adjustment expansion.
Target：62,020 → 61,800 → 61,300
Invalidation Line：Recovery above 62,720 on close
10. Invalidations While Holding a Position
11. Current Actions
At present, the short-term and mid-term lean downward, so LONGs should wait for a recovery above 62,890.
For SHORT, consider only when price is capped between 62,720 and 62,890; however, since the 4H remains in uptrend, be cautious of rebounds between 62,360 and 62,020.
Most important is to confirm on close whether 62,890 recovers or 62,360 breaks to test 62,020.
12. Caution
The 4H uptrend remains, so a short-term decline alone does not signal a major downward reversal.
Meanwhile, the 1H and 15m are both in downward waves, so avoid aggressive buying until 62,890 recovers.
Do not treat only wicks’ recovery/breaks as valid; prioritize close confirmations.
13. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using the Dow Theory Indicator across three timeframes: 4H / 1H / 15m.
It organizes the market environment, key price zones, and trade ideas based on close-price swing structure, support, resistance, and reversal prices.
※This report is for information purposes and not investment advice. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.
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