[Path to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260510]
[Dream’s Path FX Major Currencies Market Environment Recognitions & Memo 20260510]
May 10th, Sunday.
Hello.
It's almost clear despite some clouds.
The weather is getting warm.
Morning and evening are still cool, so
you need to watch your health.
Let’s both stay healthy first.
Now, USD/JPY
still has potential for intervention,
and talk of infinite swaps is arising.
It seems to be borrowing USD uncollateralized.
Since you never know when it will happen
it might be better to avoid USD/JPY as much as possible.
Now, let’s verify.
This is the number of bars at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly—17th bar / 13
Weekly—3rd cycle, 9th bar / 6
Weekly volatility—120 pips
Daily—1st cycle, 41st bar / 26 or
Daily—2nd cycle, 7th bar / 5
4HC—4th or 1st, 41st bar / 27
This is how I view it.
Dollar selling appears to be advancing,
but not by much.
Since the weekly chart is breaking at the 2nd period
the higher timeframes are bearish.
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20260510 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/8FtY0xVXgOU
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly—21st bar
Weekly—3rd cycle, 34th bar / 33
Weekly volatility—290 pips
HPC 2nd cycle, 73rd bar / 67 or
Daily 4th cycle, 16th bar / 10 LT or
Daily 1st cycle, 3rd bar
4HC 1st or 2nd, 17th bar / 12
This is how I view it.
Multiple scenarios exist
making this a difficult currency pair.
With sudden intervention
it could form large bearish candles
so caution is required.
If the daily continues, bearish bias
if the weekly flips, bullish bias.
However, the idea is to not let it exceed 160.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly—17th bar / 13
Weekly—3rd cycle, 6th bar / 5
Weekly volatility—131 pips
Daily—1st cycle, 29th bar / 24
4HC 3rd cycle, 67th bar / 36
This is how I view it.
4HC 3rd closure timing.
Daily closure timing is also possible,
somewhere it may move downward.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly—22nd bar / 21
Weekly—4th cycle, 13th bar / 10
Weekly volatility—299 pips
Daily—1st cycle, 62nd bar / 47 or
HPC 2 3rd bar
4HC 5th cycle, 39th bar / 23 or
4HC 1st cycle, 17th bar / 17
This is how I view it.
Has the daily closed?
I think so.
Since it becomes 4HC 1, a dip-buying would be
the theory, but
we must also consider the possibility that it continues bearish.
It may not be wise to push trades aggressively.
Staying within limits, USD/JPY and cross-yen may be tough?
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly—22nd bar
Weekly—4th cycle, 12th bar / 11
Weekly volatility—347 pips
Daily—2nd cycle, 29th bar / 23
4HC 3rd cycle, 40th bar / 24
This is how I view it.
Unlike EUR/JPY and USD/JPY,
there was no new low during the holiday.
This is the tricky part.
GBP/USD looks to move down,
so its relation with USD/JPY will matter.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly—14th bar / 13
Weekly—3rd cycle, 12th bar / 11
Weekly volatility—211 pips
Daily—2nd cycle, 29th bar / 21
4HC 3rd cycle, 39th bar / 23
This is the case.
Soon there may be bearish candles in AUD/USD.
If risk-off is triggered by that,
bearish candles could be large.
Upside for USD/JPY is getting heavier,
it will be influenced by the dollar crosses.
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20260510 FX Market Environment Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/8FtY0xVXgOU
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US10Y 4.36 -0.55%
DJI 49,613 dollars +12
US500 +0.94%
WTI 91.485 dollars
BRN 102.52 dollars
Nikkei 225 62,713 yen -120
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