[4/28 2 battles, 2 wins, +240 pips] GOLD Trading Commentary｜Contrarian Temptation Series Episode 2 - "After coming this far, surely it will reverse" Bias Structure

"I lowered it this much, so it should reverse soon."

"If it has risen this much, it should stop soon."

Haven't you ever had this kind of sensation rise up inside you unexpectedly?

This,is the thinking of arbitrarily deciding that a reversal is near in relation to price.

In Episode 1 we talked about the "unconscious counter-trend temptation,"
and this time, it's a discussion of thestructurebehind why this temptation arises.

The more you study, the more you have in your head a rule like
"when it moves this far, it will reverse" or "when it reaches this ratio, it will stop."
Fractals of SMC, Elliott wave counts, Harmonic Fibonacci ratios,
thesetheories with definite cutoffswhen you study them tend to intensify this tendency.

The person thinks they are "analyzing," but
what they are actually doing is'They are labeling the subjective sense of "soon" with the name of a theory', right?

For example, after a decline you might think this way.
"Since we’ve reached the 61.8% Fibonacci level, it should reverse soon."
If you think about it carefully,you are just justifying a desire for reversal with a theory.

There are times when reversal occurs at 61.8%, and times when it doesn’t.
There are times when it stops, and times when it breaks through.
A theoryonly indicates a possibility, andit is not a basis for saying "reversal is imminent.".

If you keep confusing this,
a bias that says "since we’ve come this far, it should reverse" will push you to press entry buttons under the guise of an analytical name.

This is thestructure of bias.

The same trap exists for those using EAs.
You look at data like "the level where it reversed in backtests by ○%,"
and you open discretion, thinking, "the logic will react here, so I should bet on reversal too."
This is alsotransforming past probabilities into a predetermined futurestate.

What’s important isnot to mistake the moment you feel "soon" for a corroborating basis.
Whether a reversal occurs is decided by facts,
and it is not determined by the time or price distance reached.

In today’s chart, there are several spots where you might feel,
"if it falls this far, it should reverse"
"if it rises this much, it should stop"

Take a moment to observe whether the word "soon" is coming up in your own head,
and watch as you go along ^^

This is Episode 2 of the 3-part series.
Episode 1: The psychology of unintentionally taking the opposite side when you want to follow the trend
Episode 2: The structure of the bias "it should reverse by now" (this time)
Episode 3: Entering in the mainstream with a contrarian mindset (unconscious contrarianism)

Understanding this bias structure will also let you see what others are doing on charts.

If you have the GOLD antidote, you can read this sense as a manual and a continuation of the ground, I think.

Now, the main topic.

As I’ve said many times, in this investment navigator+, we explain in detail where to recognize the wall and how to combine higher and lower timeframes.

The essence of trading is explained here (the answer to the market)

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/77829

↓ For concrete trading methods, here is the GOLD antidote

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/50406

Now, let’s get to the usual article.