【5/5】「A quiet basis creates the win.」
In a market where GOLD has made a sharp rebound, I feel like selling into rallies—I've jumped into such situations before and was soon squeezed up.
Today I will organize to avoid that outcome.
My answer today is to continue a selling stance.
Today's Market Situation
The current price is hovering around $4,544.
On the 1-hour chart, EMA20 (short-term moving average) is $4,546, EMA75 (mid-term moving average) is $4,582, and EMA200 (long-term moving average) is $4,631, forming a descending sequence from short to long term. The RSI (an indicator showing overbought/oversold) has risen from 30.95 three hours ago to 43.83 now, indicating a move back from a bottom area.
On the 4-hour chart, the EMA sequence likewise points downward, and the major trend remains bearish.
On the 15-minute chart, RSI is around 63.90, indicating short-term upside pressure.
In short, the overall trend remains biased toward selling, and we view the current phase as a temporary retracement.
Gogo Taro's View
This article is 개인 (individual) analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.
If the current price retraces to around 1H EMA75 (between $4,582 and $4,588), I see it as a level where a selling into the rally can be considered. The EMA20 at $4,546 will be the first barrier, and if broken, the next line of $4,582–$4,588 is likely to be watched.
On the other hand, if yesterday’s low near $4,494 is clearly breached, downward acceleration could be possible. However, given the 15-minute RSI is elevated today, a move with a retracement before breaking lower may be more natural than an immediate drop.
Regardless of the scenario, my rule is not to move at unsupportable levels.
Today’s Reference Lines
These are reference values and not investment recommendations.
▼ Short (selling into retracements) Reference zone: $4,578–$4,588 (basis: 1H EMA75) Reference take-profit line: $4,495 Reference stop-loss line: $4,595 Assumed RR: 7.3
These are educational reference values. Please make your actual trading decisions yourself.
Breakout selling is omitted today as there is no basis to take profits.
Important Lines
Resistance ①: $4,630 (basis: previous day’s high) Resistance ②: $4,583 (basis: 1H EMA75) Resistance ③: $4,546 (basis: 1H EMA20) Support ①: $4,495 (basis: previous day’s low) 1H EMA200: $4,631 (if this line is broken, upward acceleration)
Today's Word
“Waiting until the grounds are solid is also a respectable form of work.”
This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.
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