In this kind of market, don't you feel like counter-trading?

I also have experience of buying after a big drop, thinking “surely it will bounce,” only to see it fall further—several times in the past.

Today I will organize to avoid that. My conclusion today is to continue with a bearish outlook.

The current price is around $4,593. It has fallen slightly from the high of $4,597, showing a mildly soft trend.

The 1-hour EMA20 (short-term moving average) is $4,609, EMA75 (medium-term) is $4,610, and EMA200 (long-term) is $4,649, forming a sequence of higher levels from short to long while the price declines. The RSI (an indicator of overbought/oversold) is currently 42.68, below 50, indicating selling pressure is dominant.

Compared to the RSI 3 hours ago (52.18), it has dropped rapidly in a short time, and the recent momentum is turning downward.

In short, the short-, mid-, and long-term trends are all downward, and the momentum is leaning toward selling.

This article is a personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make your own trading decisions at your own risk.

If the current price retraces to around $4,604–$4,614 and faces resistance there, I see it as a selling opportunity on the rebound. The key today is whether it can be held at the EMA20 level.

On the other hand, if it clearly breaks below the $4,560 support line, further downward movement becomes a consideration. However, today I am not counting a breakout entry because I cannot derive a profit-tuture from numerical figures, so I will stay away from break-sale at this time.

In any case, I do not think this is a situation to force a counter-trade buy.

※ Not a trading recommendation. The following are educational reference values. Please make your own trading decisions.

▼ Short (sell on the rebound)

Reference Zone: $4,604–$4,614 (Basis: 1H EMA20)

Reference Profit-Take Line: $4,565　／　Reference Stop-Loss Line: $4,630

Expected RR: 2.1

Resistance ①: $4,610 (Basis: 1H EMA20)

Resistance ②: $4,610 (Basis: 1H EMA75)

Resistance ③: $4,660 (Basis: previous day high)

Support ①: $4,560 (Basis: previous day low)

1H EMA200: $4,650 (If this line is breached, an upward acceleration occurs)

※ Since Resistance ① and ② are at almost the same level as EMA20 and EMA75, please perceive the $4,610 band as a single resistance area.

“Those who wait for an unfounded rebound will not survive; those who wait for a rebound with a basis will.”

This article is a personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make your own trading decisions at your own risk.

If you found this helpful, a follow would be appreciated to encourage me.

Feel free to leave questions or comments with your thoughts.