NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report 2026-05-04 16:08
NK225 Futures MTF Dow Theory Analysis Report
1. Trend Table
●＝Hold / ✕＝Close price break
2. Important Price Zones
3. 4H Analysis
【4H / SW3 / Upward】
4H maintains uptrend and rising wave. 58,360 JPY acts as pullback low, keeping the broader up structure intact.
However, the all-time high of 60,970 has not been updated, and the upper resistance between 60,130 and 60,270 has not been clearly broken.
4H remains biased to the upside, but viewed as a rebound within a high-price range.
4. 1H Analysis
【1H / SW2 / Upward】
1H maintains an uptrend and rising wave. The uptrend structure continues with a pullback low at 59,300.
Recently rose toward around 60,000 but pulled back; until 59,370 break, the 1H up structure remains intact.
Recovery to 60,010 reinforces upside, while breaks below 59,370〜59,300 strengthen the correction.
5. 15m Analysis
【15m / SW1 / Upward・Downward Wave】
15m maintains an uptrend, but the wave is a downward wave.
After touching 60,010, it has been pulled back toward around 59,840, with short-term profit-taking selling.
However, 59,720 remains as pullback low, so the current view is a pullback within an uptrend in the short term.
If 60,010 closes back up, the up move resumes; a break below 59,720 reduces the short-term upside momentum.
6. Conclusion
As of 16:08, all three timeframes (4H, 1H, 15m) remain in uptrends. However, the 15m is in a downward wave, showing a pullback after reaching 60,010.
- Upside：If 60,010 is regained on a close, expect further upside toward 60,130.
- Pullback zone：From around 59,840 to 59,720 is a short-term pullback confirmation zone.
- Downside：Break below 59,720 reduces the 15m upside momentum. A break below 59,370〜59,300 warrants caution for 1H.
- Macro：As long as 4H holds at 58,360, the up structure remains within its range.
7. MTF Consistency
Overall bullish, but not yet above 60,970; price remains in a high-price range.
As long as 59,370〜59,300 is maintained, uptrend continues.
Short-term pullback. If 60,010 recovers, acceleration confirmed.
MTF consistency is bullish overall. However, the 15m is in a downward wave, so in the short term a pullback formation is being monitored.
For new LONGs, prioritize 60,010 recovery or a confirmed reversal from 59,720.
8. Trade Ideas
- Close above 60,010 on a daily close
- Or confirm a pullback reversal from 59,840〜59,720
- In 15m, confirm a rebound pattern from a downward wave
- Maintain 59,370〜59,300 in 1H
Target：60,010 → 60,130 → 60,270
Stop/Invalidation Line：Close below 59,720
- Fail to recover above 60,010
- Break below 59,720 on close
- Look for a retracement selling setup
- Downside room toward 59,370〜59,300
Target：59,370 → 59,300 → 59,110
Stop/Invalidation Line：Close above 60,010 recovery
9. In-Position Invalidation Lines
Invalidation Line：Close below 59,720
Invalidation Line：Close above 60,010
10. Current Action
As of 16:08, higher timeframes are bullish, but the 15m is in a downward wave performing a pullback adjustment.
New LONGs should not chase highs; wait for 60,010 recovery or a reversal confirmation in the 59,840〜59,720 zone.
SHORTs are difficult to anticipate before clearly breaking 59,720. If 59,720 breaks, consider a short-term adjustment toward 59,370〜59,300.
11. Cautions
With all three timeframes in uptrends, avoid overly strong sell judgments based solely on a short-term down move.
On the other hand, profit-taking selling occurs after reaching 60,010, so avoid jumping in on buys.
Decide after confirming either 60,010 recovery or 59,720 hold.
12. About This Report
This report analyzes NK225 futures using Dow Theory Indicator across 4H / 1H / 15m timeframes.
Based on swing structure at close, pullback lows, retrace highs, and conversion prices, it organizes market condition, important price zones, and trade ideas.
※This report is for information purposes only, and investment decisions are the sole responsibility of the reader.
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