The market after a sharp drop makes you want to go counter-trend, doesn't it?

In the past, I felt “it has fallen enough” and went long, only to end up with unrealized losses many times.

Today I’ll sort things out to avoid that.

Current price is around $4,560.

GOLD has fallen sharply in recent days, and selling pressure has continued fromApril 29 to 30.

The 1-hour EMA20 (short-term moving average) is $4,562, EMA75 (mid-term) is $4,613, and EMA200 (long-term) is $4,676, forming a clear downtrend from short to long term.

The RSI (an indicator of overbought/oversold) is 47.12, having fallen below 50, indicating ongoing downside pressure.

In the 4-hour chart, the EMA sequence is aligned to the downside, and RSI is approaching the oversold level at 32.64.

In the 15-minute chart, the EMAs overlap around $4,561–$4,591, and the direction is somewhat range-bound.

In short, multiple timeframes show a continued “sell-favored” condition.

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.

Today, my assessment is that selling is favored.

If there is a rebound to around $4,613–$4,618 (near the 1H EMA75), I see that area as one basis for a short entry on the way down.

Since the 1H EMA sequence is all declining, a rebound should naturally be treated as a selling opportunity.

On the other hand, if it breaks below around $4,510 (yesterday’s low) and moves further down, we could be looking for the next support level.

With the 4-hour RSI dipping into the low 30s, there remains a risk of a sharp rebound, so stay cautious.

Regardless of direction, the basic rule is to avoid entries without a rationale.

This is not a recommendation to enter. It is educational reference information.

▼ Short (rebound selling)

Reference zone: $4,608–$4,618 (basis: 1H EMA75)

Reference take-profit line: $4,515

Reference stop-loss line: $4,630 (previous day high + $20 → round number)

Expected RR: 5.9

※ The stop-loss is too close. Always check that your stop is at least $20 away from the reference line. The stop-loss width is about $16. In actual trading, ensure a sufficient stop or consider passing.

※ These are educational reference values. Please make actual trading decisions yourself.

Resistance ①: $4,565 (basis: 1H EMA20)

Resistance ②: $4,610 (basis: previous day high)

Resistance ③: $4,615 (basis: 1H EMA75)

Support ①: $4,510 (basis: previous day low)

1H EMA200: $4,675 (breaking this line speeds up the rise)

“Only those who can wait quietly will ride the next wave.”

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.

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