【4/28】Gold is favoring selling, reasons why I’m passing today

The desire to enter and the basis are two different things.

In the past, I used to sell based on instinct alone and kept taking losses many times.

Today I will honestly share that story and the reasons for passing.

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make buying/selling decisions at your own responsibility.

The current GOLD price is around $4,670.

The 1-hour EMA (Exponential Moving Average) is in a complete downtrend with 20 < 75 < 200, and the RSI (indicating overbought/oversold) has fallen below 37.52 and 50. In the 4-hour chart, the downtrend continues, confirming selling pressure from higher time frames.

The current price is just below yesterday’s low ($4,672), clearly breaking below that level. The 15-minute BB is contracting around $4,670, suggesting short-term energy may be accumulating.

In short, the overall trend is still downward, but the current price is near an important support/resistance zone, making a short-term rebound more likely.

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make buying/selling decisions on your own responsibility.

For an upside scenario, if the current downtrend breaks and the price clearly moves above the 1H EMA20 (around $4,688), a short-term rebound could intensify. However, the 1H EMA75 (around $4,708) and the EMA200 (around $4,733) are stacked above, so the rebound range is likely to be limited.

For a downside scenario, given that the previous day’s low has already been breached, if the price continues to move clearly below $4,670, there may be a move to test the next level. However, the 15-minute RSI is at 34.20, nearing oversold, so be cautious of a rebound.

I personally will stay on the sidelines today and wait for the next opportunity.

Today there are no points meeting RR1.5, so I will refrain from entering. The following is for reference.

▼ Short (selling into the rally)

Reference zone: $4,683–$4,693 (based on 1H EMA20)

Reference take-profit line: $4,675

Reference stop-loss line: $4,720

Expected RR: 0.41 (below standard; personal judgment)

Entering on a short would be to wait for a rebound toward around the EMA20, but the profit target up to the previous day’s low is small, so RR may not be favorable. Today the reference entry is also limited.

*These are educational reference values. Please make your own actual trading decisions.

Resistance 1: $4,675 (based on: previous day’s low)

Resistance 2: $4,690 (based on: 1H EMA20)

Resistance 3: $4,710 (based on: 1H EMA75)

Resistance 4: $4,730 (based on: previous day’s high)

1H EMA200: $4,735 (a ceiling to be mindful of)

*Currently there is no support line in proximity to the current price, so the support section is omitted.

“Only those who can wait will meet the next justification.”

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make buying/selling decisions on your own responsibility.

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