When there is uncertainty in the market—I used to rush in on days like that, too.

I convinced myself that it would move in one direction, and as a result I lost spectacularly.

In today’s article, I will整理 the true nature of that hesitation.

The current price is around $4,716. Looking at the 1-hour EMA (moving average), the short-term EMA20 is at $4,705, the mid-term EMA75 is at $4,720, and the long-term EMA200 is at $4,742, arranged from low to high in a “downward sequence.”

However, the RSI (an indicator of overbought/oversold) is currently 54.43, above 50, indicating upward momentum in price.

In short, the EMA is saying “still downward,” while the RSI is saying “no, it’s coming back,” and these two are not aligned. On days like this, there is little advantage to either side.

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.

Today I’m looking at two scenarios.

If it retraces to around $4,721 (EMA75) or $4,740 (previous day high) and the upside becomes heavy, I see selling pressure on the way back as likely. The EMA arrangement is still breaking down, and there isn’t enough evidence to call a reversal to the upside.

On the other hand, RSI has rapidly recovered from 39.47 three hours ago to 54.43 now, and there is buying pressure from the downside. If there is a move that clearly exceeds the previous day high of $4,740, an upside acceleration could occur. Today is a difficult situation where neither side is easy to declare.

Today there are no points meeting RR1.5, so I’m staying out of entries. The following are for reference.

▼ Short (selling into strength)

Reference Zone: $4,738–$4,748 (Basis: 1H EMA200)

Reference Take-Profit Line: $4,660

Reference Stop-Loss Line: $4,760

Expected RR: 4.9 (not guaranteed; personal judgment)

※ The SL is too close. The distance from the stop-loss base line is $17, which is below $20. If you actually consider it, be sure to re-check the stop-loss settings.

※ These are educational reference values. Actual trading decisions are up to you.

Today I do not provide valid grounds for reference long or breakout-entry, so I will not publish them.

Resistance 1: $4,721 (Basis: 1H EMA75)

Resistance 2: $4,740 (Basis: previous day high)

Support 1: $4,706 (Basis: 1H EMA20)

Support 2: $4,658 (Basis: previous day low)

1H EMA200: $4,743 (If this line is broken, upside acceleration)

“People who stay out when there is no solid basis will be the traders who endure the longest.”

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make trading decisions at your own risk.

If you found it helpful, a follow would be encouraging.

Feel free to leave questions or comments with your thoughts.