【Path to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition & Memo_20260426】

April 26, Sunday.

Hello.

This morning feels cold, a Sunday.
Since it feels like a clear sky,
outdoor activities would be desirable.

There are no visitors today,
so I would like to enjoy my own time slowly.

Now, regarding the chart,
I see a pattern where the US dollar is bought up?
that’s what I think.

Since Tuesday is the Bank of Japan meeting and Wednesday is the FOMC,
avoid holding reckless positions
as it’s the end of the month as well,
I think it’s best to stay on the sidelines.

I view trading as sufficient only after movement occurs.



Now, let’s confirm.
These are the numbers at the close of the daily chart.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 16th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 7th / 6
Weekly volatility: 171 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 31st / 26
4HC (4th Horizontal Pattern) 3rd cycle, 30th / 7

I interpret it as such.

The daily closing timing is approaching.
Technically,
the dollar may be bought and a bearish candlestick may form
on the chart.

Since the 4HC is also the 3rd,
a bearish candle may be expected?
I think so.

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20260426_FX_Global Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/H84PkeBR4ow
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 20th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 32nd / 29
Weekly volatility: 129 pips
HPC (Half Primary Cycle) 2nd cycle, 63rd / 44 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 6th / 5
4HC: 6th or 1st, 32nd / 25

I view it as such.

If it’s a Half Primary Cycle (HPC),
a bearish candle can be expected,
and if it’s Daily 3, it may become a bullish candle.

At the BOJ meeting on the 28th,
how it moves?
If a surprise rate hike is announced,
could move dollar higher,
but that scenario is quite rare.



【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 16th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 4th / 3 or
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 25th / 13
Weekly volatility: 96 pips
Daily: 1st or 3rd, 19th / 14
4HC: 1st cycle, 29th / 5

I see it this way.

If the weekly chart shifts, the view turns bullish.
The previous daily cycle
If Half Primary Cycle (HPC),
the weekly would close, but
in a typical MC,
the starting point would break on Daily 2
and the subsequent Daily 3 would follow.

It’s a battle of strength with the dollar.


【EUR/JPY】【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 21st / 21
Weekly: 4th cycle, 11th / 10
Weekly volatility: 95 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 52nd / 47
4HC: 5th cycle, 32nd / 12

I view these as such.

If USD/JPY stagnates and EUR/USD falls,
EUR/JPY will plot bearish candles.


Since a strong yen scenario is hard to create,
EUR/USD will have a strong influence.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 21st
Weekly: 4th cycle, 10th / 9
Weekly volatility: 160 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 19th / 12
4HC: 2nd cycle, 32nd / 32

I see it this way.

If the weekly chart switches, the outlook is bullish.
The previous daily cycle is
Half Primary Cycle (HPC),
the weekly would close, but
in a typical MC,


and the subsequent Daily 3 may follow.
Monthly: 13th / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 10th / 9
Weekly volatility: 121 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 19th / 14
4HC: 2nd cycle, 30th / 11

That’s how it stands.

On the 4-hour chart, there’s a general impression of a top.


Conditions for AUD/JPY to decline are
a decline in AUD/USD and
a decline in USD/JPY.

When US stocks fall,
the Australian dollar is sold and risk-off occurs.

Before the Tuesday BOJ meeting,
position adjustments may trigger bearish candles
and it may occur.
I think so.

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20260426_FX_外市場環境_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/H84PkeBR4ow
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US10Y 4.306 -0.44%
DJI 49230 dollars -79
US500 +0.92%
WTI 93.115 dollars
BRN 99.13 dollars
Nikkei 225 59716 yen +575
　
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Let’s learn together.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872


 
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