[FX Trade Record] Avoided Gold's range, +22.7 pips on USD/CAD! Ironclad entry judged by currency correlations and corrective waves

Hello! Let’s review yesterday’s trade results.
Usually I focus on gold (XAU/USD), but depending on market conditions, sometimes opting not to trade is an important judgment.

This time, in a situation where gold was difficult to trade,currency correlations (inverse correlations) and chart patternswere used as tools to quickly profit from USD/CAD.

【Environmental Recognition】Why not gold and why choose USD/CAD?

First, let’s look at the main gold chart (1-hour).

ゴールド（XAUUSD）1時間足のレンジ相場。水平線で囲まれた持ち合い局面のチャート画像。 — Gold 1-hour chart. As shown by the purple box, it’s in a clear range with no directional bias.

As you can see, gold is in a complete range on the 1-hour chart
with upward and downward swings, making aggressive entries high risk.

So, when I broadened my view to other currency pairs, I found that the Australian dollar (AUD/USD)was forming a clean corrective wave. Furthermore, its inverse correlationwith the USD/CAD showed an even more orderly pattern than the AUD/USD.

【15-minute Chart】Confirming higher-timeframe trend and moving average divergence

Next, I grasped the overall flow on the USD/CAD 15-minute chart.

ドルカナダ（USDCAD）15分足。20MAと80MAに抑えられた下降トレンドの環境認識 — USD/CAD 15-minute chart. The red line (downtrend) and the position of the moving averages

On the 15-minute chart,20MA (short-term) and 80MA (mid-term) are firmly pinning the price downin a typical downtrend.
Prices were making lower lows in a rhythm drawn by the pink line, creating a setup to sell on rallies.

【5-minute Chart】Entry rationale and exit points

The final entry decision was made on the 5-minute chart.

AUD/USD 5-minute chart

オーストラリアドル（AUDUSD）5分足。下降トレンド中の戻り（修正波）と切り下げラインの解説。 — AUD/USD 5-minute chart. The corrective wave of the AUD/USD used as a comparison.

USD/CAD 5-minute chart

ドルカナダ（USDCAD）5分足。切り上げライン抜けからのショートエントリーと22.7pips利確ポイント。 — USD/CAD 5-minute chart. The flow from entry to exit.

【Entry rationale】

The 15-minute chart was continuing its downtrend.
On the 5-minute chart, a temporary “corrective wave (pullback)” ended.
The price was repressed by the moving averages,and the exact moment it clearly broke below the rising linewas when I went short.

As expected, price dropped sharply after breaking the line.
I took profit at the usual stable range, earning +22.7 pips without stress.

Summary of this trade

The win in this trade can be summarized in three points.

The “do not trade” decision:Skipping the range-bound gold which was not favorable.

Currency comparison:Compared inverse-correlated pairs and chose the cleaner pattern (USD/CAD).

Sticking to basics:Waited for the upper-timeframe MA to press down and for a reliable breakout on the lower timeframes.

This trade reinforced the importance of waiting for the favorable pattern to appear.
If your main instrument is not showing a good setup, broaden your view and look for “cleaner patterns” too!

The strategy is sold on Gogojan in two variants ⇩

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