[Today's FX Market Commentary] What trading method works even in a sideways USD/JPY
Regarding USD/JPY today,
it has been moving in a rather lengthy sideways.
The price has continued to stay flat for a long period.
Totally not moving!
Like a dog that refuses to walk, it smirks
around the 159 yen vicinity,
the so-called “non-moving market”
and it has been trading within a range.
In such a market,
at first glance it seems easy, but
in reality
many traders
tend to struggle in such a phase.
Common losing patterns in a range market
In a ranging market,
the following actions are often observed:
The entries based on the hope that a breakout will come soon
- “Entering with the expectation of a breakout soon”
- Repeated short-term trades in response to small price movements
- Holding positions without clear justification
As a result,
continuous stop-losses and missing out on profits
are common characteristics
of this pattern.
This trade idea (pre-planned scenario)
For this USD/JPY,
we had prepared the following scenario in advance:
・Entry zone: 158.70–158.90
・Target: 159.50
↓ Here is the idea built by the actual AI
What matters is that
this scenario was set beforehand.
Rather than judging after the price action arises,
it is effective to predefine the conditions
this forms the premise for reproducible trading.
The importance of “pre-defining”
In trading,
real-time judgment is the most prone to variability.
Especially in a ranging market,
- hesitation about entry timing
- delayed decisions on take-profit and stop-loss
- increased emotional decision-making
these issues become prominent.
To prevent this,
it is effective to fix the scenario in advancethe pre-set scenario approach
.Thishas shown to be effective.
Situation recognition and scenario construction
In markets like this,
environment recognition → scenario setting → execution
is the simple but important flow.
In particular,
- knowing the upper and lower bounds of the range
- identifying price zones likely to rebound
- clarifying risk-reward
If these are organized in advance,
you can reduce unnecessary trades.
Risks of being swayed by information
Nowadays, information is readily accessible via SNS and news.
On the other hand,
- driven by short-term topics
- judgments swayed by others' opinions
- leading to inconsistent trading
risks are increasing.
Consequently,
trading without rules becomes more likely
so caution is needed.
The most important is sticking to simple rules
Ultimately, what determines the result is
how well you can follow the rules
.
Rather than complex methods or advanced analysis,
continuing a simple strategy is important
.
Summary
As with this USD/JPY market,
in a phase without a clear trend
...
the approach of setting a scenario in advance and following it
is effective.
To improve trading accuracy,
- conduct thorough environmental recognition
- predefine the scenario
- enforce the rules
and keep these three points in mind.