【Why did we lose even though things were going well】【To FX beginners】That reversal is not your fault
Hello, I am Neko-kai from the Trade Idea Lab.
“Alright, it’s growing nicely.”
Just after thinking that, it suddenly reverses.
And then it hits the stop loss as is.
…Have you ever experienced this?
One problem that almost every FX beginner faces is this
?“Adverse movement problem”
.
■ First thing I want to tell you
Please remember this.
?Your entry is likely not the wrong one
Many people think here
“My analysis was bad.”
But actually, that’s not the case.
■ The real cause is “a change in probability”
Trading
? Entering is not the finish line
Rather, that is where the start is.
In the market,
?the probability changes moment by moment
In other words
・When you entered, you had an edge
・But afterward, the situation changed
That’s basically the story.
■ It’s easier to understand if you think of a soccer match
In the first half, one team was overwhelmingly attacking.
But in the second half,
・Opponent’s tactics changed
・Player substitutions
・Momentum shifted
and they were driven back.
This happens regularly, right?
Trading is exactly the same.
?“The momentum” is not fixed
■ Common traits of people who lose
This is important.
・Clinging to the initial scenario
・Holding on even when the momentum changes
・Delaying the stop loss
In other words
?Clinging to “past edge”
That is the true cause of losses.
■ What’s needed is the “coach’s perspective”
Trading
? You are the “coach”
Holding a position isn’t the end.
・If the momentum deteriorates, make a substitution (stop loss)
・Change your tactics (double down)
・Play defense (exit at break-even)
These
?“In-game judgments”
are required.
■ Exception: Trending markets
Of course, there are situations where you don’t need to monitor continuously.
That is
?When a strong trend is present
In such times
・Enter
・Leave it alone
This is OK.
In fact, leaving it alone yields more profit.
■ But the problem starts here
What will the market do from here?
?Changes will accelerate
Why?
In other words
? The market will become “chameleon-like”
・When you think there is a trend, it ends
・When you think it’s a range, it breaks
・Momentum can reverse in an instant
This kind of market becomes “normal.”
■ Skills that become necessary there
That is
?Market handling
You may not have heard of it, but essentially
?the ability to adapt to market changes
■ Specifically, what should you do?
For example, USD/JPY.
Even by looking only at the chart, there are limits.
・Interest rates
・Stock market
・Crude油
・Other currencies
These things
?Combine external information
And
?When you sense a change, move immediately
Once you can do this
? The number of times you are hurt by reversals will drastically decrease
■ Summary
・Entrys are often not wrong
・The market is always changing
・The cause of losses is “not adapting”
・What’s needed is judgment as a coach
■ Finally
Trading
?is not a game of predicting
?it’s a game of responding
From the moment you adopt this viewpoint,
your trading will rise to a new level.