【Episode 6】Shoukinryu What a 84% win-rate EA is doing on the day it loses
Win rate 84%. The calculation is that it wins in 8 out of 10 trades or more.
However, conversely,1–2 out of 10 will be losses. Of 22,189 trades in 11 years of backtesting, about 3,500 ended in loss.
The essence of an EA appears not when it wins, but when it loses. What happens on losing days, and how losses are controlled. This time we thoroughly dissect Shoukinryu’s “losses.” If you understand this, your trust in this EA should become rock solid.
With 22,189 trades, win rate is 84.28%. In other words, about 3,490 trades were closed in a loss. Listening to this number might feel uneasy. But what matters isn't how many times it loses, buthow much is lost per loss.
Shoukinryu’s PF (Profit Factor) is 1.93. This means total profit is about twice total loss. When comparing profit per winning trade to loss per losing trade, winning trades are larger. In other words, the structure is that losses are few and small even when they occur.
Many EAs widen stop losses or push stop-outs to raise win rates. Shoukinryu does the opposite. When it loses, it cuts losses quickly and prepares for the next opportunity. This decisiveness is the driving force that maintains a long-term PF of 1.93.
Even an 84% win-rate EA will have losing days. Shoukinryu’s loss patterns are broadly categorized into three. The important point is that in every patternthe losses stay within the expected range.
Pattern 1 and 2 are cases where the market environment temporarily didn’t align. By designing ATR dynamic averaging and take-profit conditions, losses are kept limited. Pattern 3 is a scene to be avoided, and must be handled by the operator, not the EA itself. That is why pausing the EA around important indicators is recommended.
What all three patterns share is“losses capped at design-stage levels”. Shoukinryu does not run away when it loses. By keeping losses within a fixed range and recovering reliably with win-rate 84%, this structure supports 11 years of survival.
The 11-year profit/loss curve trends upward, though not in a straight line. There are moments when the curve stagnates or dips slightly. What matters is how deep that dip is and how quickly it recovers.
The deepest dip occurred around March 2020 during the COVID-19 crash, an extraordinary market where gold swung sharply up and down. Yet the maximum drawdown remained 12%. Starting from 1,000,000 JPY, the drop was limited to about 120,000 JPY.
And noteworthy isthe speed of recoveryAfter hitting the maximum drawdown, Shoukinryu quickly restored the curve in a short period. This is the meaning of RF (Recovery Factor) 9.95. “Even when dipping, it recovers quickly.” This is the biggest strength allowing 11 years of survival.
There are EAs with win rates exceeding 90%. However, many of those EAs make the win rate by excessively widening stop losses. There are many EAs that lose everything on the 11th trade after 10 small wins.
Shoukinryu is different. When it loses, it loses gracefully. But one loss doesn’t deal a fatal blow to the account. The maximum drawdown of 12% shows that even in the worst 11-year period, 88% of the account was preserved.
The quality of an EA is decided bywhat happens on the worst day. Shoukinryu’s worst day still only saw a 12% drawdown. After that, with win-rate 84% reproducibility, it curves back upward. This is the design of an EA that can survive 11 years.
A win rate of 84% does not mean “never lose.” About one in six times it will lose. But Shoukinryu’s losses have clear, built-in rules from the design phase. The loss cap is predetermined. There is also an upper limit on averaging. Even after a loss, the logic does not change.
That is why the 11-year backtest shows a maximum drawdown of 12% and maintains the curve upward with RF 9.95 recovery capability.
Do not seek a “perfect win rate” in an EA. What you should seek isthe ability to protect the account on losing days and reliably recover the next day and beyond. Shoukinryu has proven this condition for 11 years. Next time, we’ll dive deeper into the 12% max drawdown and explain what Shoukinryu did during the sudden moves in the $4,800 range.
※This article is for information purposes and not investment solicitation. The results shown are past performance and do not guarantee future profits. FX/CFD trading involves risk. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility.
