[Path to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260412]

April 12, Sunday.

Hello.

Spending the daytime of a warm Sunday.
The breeze is a bit strong,
perhaps the hinoki pollen is flying.

A mask is necessary when going out.

Well, on weekends I always
consider the market environment,
and pay attention to future movements.

As for USD/JPY
unless there is some event,
there seems to be no signs of a yen appreciation.

If at some point safety currency is deemed necessary,
the Japanese yen would be bought.


I wonder.
But technically,
as one scenario
I am also considering a yen appreciation scenario.



Now, let's confirm.
The numbers are at the close of the daily candles.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 16th candle / 13
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 23rd candle / 13 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 5th candle / 5
Weekly volatility: 234 pips
Daily: 3rd or 1st, 21st candle / 21
4HC: 2nd cycle, 56th candle / 55

and I view it as.

It may be more reasonable to consider the weekly chart has switched.
Since the daily is in its early phase, a high-price update could be expected.

If the US dollar weakens
and crude oil falls
it may be easier for Japanese people to live.

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20260412_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoAnalysis
https://youtu.be/GzRKNPed528
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 20th candle
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 30th candle / 29
Weekly volatility: 214 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 53rd candle / 44
4HC: 5th cycle, 15th candle / 12

and I view it as.

Since the weekly is at a closing timing,
even if a bearish candle occurs,
if it continues to make new highs,
the weekly may close,
and further upside could be possible.

If it is a Half Primary Cycle (HPC),
it might still produce a few more bearish candles...

It's disappointing that there are no yen-strength factors.


【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 16th candle / 13
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 23rd candle / 13
Weekly volatility: 308 pips
Daily: 1st or 3rd cycle, 9th candle / 7
4HC: 1st cycle, 54th candle / 40

and I view it as.

The daily is rising, and GBP/USD is in an uptrend.
If the US dollar weakens,
the dollar pairs might be easier to trade.


【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 21st candle
Weekly: 4th cycle, 9th candle / 9
Weekly volatility: 321 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 42nd candle / 42
4HC: 4th cycle, 56th candle / 56

and I view it as.

EUR/USD's rise is creating a strong bullish candlestick in EUR/JPY.


USD/JPY is in a box, which is a major factor.


However, since it will close somewhere,
at the start of the week there might be a surprise?
I am watching with that perspective.


【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 21st candle
Weekly: 4th cycle, 8th candle / 8
Weekly volatility: 422 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 39th candle / 39 or
Daily: 2nd cycle, 9th candle / 9
4HC: 1st or 4th, 50th candle / 50

and I view it as.

Daily is likely to have switched high enough.
The chart is following GBP/USD’s rise.

USD/JPY is in a box
and tends toward a weaker yen,
so cross-yen is biased higher.


【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 13th candle / 12
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 8th candle / 8
Weekly volatility: 304 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 9th candle / 9
4HC: 1st cycle, 50th candle / 49

and I view it as.

The daily is young and still rising.
From the close of 4HC1, a rise is the target.


Unless there is an event for USD/JPY,
the upward view remains.
 
****************************
20260412_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoAnalysis
https://youtu.be/GzRKNPed528
*****************************
  
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US10Y 4.317 +0.79%
DJI 47,916 dollars −269
US500 +0.06%
WTI 90.035 dollars
BRN 96.6 dollars
Nikkei 225 56,924 yen +1,028

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