Will the RBA Board be a dove stance? ~ Highlights on April 2 and the event schedule ~

Yesterday, due to the UK Parliament-led vote being scheduled, soft Brexit was anticipated and the pound rose sharply. However, as all four votes were rejected, concerns over a no-deal Brexit caused the pound to fall sharply.

In the United States, weak retail sales results led to a slight euro appreciation, but later, the ISM Manufacturing PMI came in stronger, pushing the dollar/yen higher.

In Turkey, President Erdogan's party lost the election. Domestically, Erdogan's influence is waning, and there is growing interest in his future actions.

◎ Today’s Points of Attention

1) United Kingdom Parliament

Yesterday (this morning), the UK Parliament reviewed and voted on a Parliament-led Brexit substitute plan. All four proposals were rejected. Next, attention turns to whether Prime Minister May's Brexit plan will be debated for a fourth vote.

From here, another parliamentary vote is expected as soon as tomorrow the 3rd. The goal is to finalize a Brexit plan by April 10. If a Brexit plan is finalized by April 10, Brexit would occur on May 22.

If a Brexit plan is not finalized by April 10, it will be either a no-deal Brexit or a long-term extension of the Brexit deadline.

Additionally, be cautious about a general election or dissolution scenarios.

2) RBA Board

In the previous RBA board meeting, the dove shift drew attention. The statement suggested rate cuts were not a concern, but Governor Lowe's subsequent remarks expanded concerns about rate cuts, causing AUD to swing significantly.

Recently, the RBNZ also shifted to a dove stance, mentioning the possibility of rate cuts. With central banks worldwide moving toward easing, all eyes are on the content of the upcoming RBA statement.

The consensus is that the policy rate will be kept unchanged.

◎ Today’s Economic Schedule

April 2 (Tuesday)

09:30 AUD Building Permits

12:30 AUDPolicy Rate Decision and Statement

15:30 CHF Swiss CPI (Consumer Price Index)

17:30 GBPConstruction PMI

18:00 EUR Euro Area Unemployment Rate

21:30 USD Durable Goods Orders

April 3 (Wednesday)

U.S.-China Ministerial Trade Talks(Washington)

UK Parliament Substitute Plan Vote

09:30 AUD Trade Balance and Retail Sales

10:45 CNY Caixin Services PMI