Information confusion surrounding ceasefire negotiations, USD/JPY around 159 yen with no clear direction.

【4/6Market Overview

In Tokyo time, the USD/JPY rose to159.82yen but there was no follow-through. In some reports, it was said that “the United States, Iran, and mediators are negotiating a 45-day ceasefire,” and the USD/JPY fell to the mid-159s. In European hours, some reports quoted officials saying “the United States and Iran have received a two-stage plan for ending the conflict and ceasefire,” and that it is necessary to reach an agreement by the “6th,” with the USD/JPY briefly dipping to the 159.30 yen level. Afterward, Iran’s foreign ministry said that “a ceasefire means a temporary halt for force reorganization,” “we seek an end to the war,” “the U.S. proposal is unrealistic and excessive,” and “no direct negotiations with the United States have taken place,” causing mixed information about ceasefire negotiations, and the USD/JPY rose to the 159.60 yen level.NYtime,3Month U.S.ISMNon-Manufacturing PMI was weaker than expected, and the USD/JPY fell to159.37yen, but “dollar buying during a crisis” pushed it up to159.80yen.

President Trump, at a press conference, said that the negotiations toward a ceasefire with Iran are going well and that he believes Iran is negotiating in good faith, but if no agreement is reached before the deadline, Iran “will have neither bridges nor power plants.” He also stated that “the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is a top priority” and that “free oil transport through the Strait of Hormuz should be included in the Iran agreement.”

【4/7Market View