New fiscal year start! Attention on the UK and Europe! ~ Key points and event schedule for April 1 ~

Turkish local elections seem to be challenging for President Erdogan.

From today, the new fiscal year begins, and the new era name is scheduled to be announced around noon. Will the stock market welcome the new year with a celebratory rally? Stay tuned!

◎ Today's Points of Attention

1) UK Parliament

Last week's parliamentary-led vote rejected all eight alternatives to Brexit. Prime Minister May's Brexit plan was also rejected. Up to now, nothing has been decided. The Brexit deadline has been extended to April 12, but if a Brexit proposal cannot be put forward by then, a no-deal Brexit will occur.

Today, a new vote will be held on the eight rejected Brexit alternatives, choosing among those with the smallest margin of victory. Since this is parliamentary-led, it has no legal binding force. Even if one of them passes, it is not certain that Prime Minister May will adopt it as a Brexit plan.

However, May's plan that would require her resignation has also been rejected. May is left with no cards. What happens next could be: choosing a no-deal Brexit between April 12, requesting a long postponement of the exit deadline at the April 10 emergency EU summit, or adopting as a Brexit plan any Brexit alternative that passes today. One of these is likely.

I will be paying attention to today's vote.

2) Economic Indicators

Today, economic indicators are released in European countries such as Italy, France, and Germany. The German manufacturing PMI last month significantly missed expectations, causing the euro to fall sharply. Today, manufacturing PMIs will be the focus. Pay attention to the PMIs of European countries.

Manufacturing PMI is also scheduled in the UK. China will release the Caixin Manufacturing PMI. Like Europe, this is also in focus.

In the United States, the ISM Manufacturing Index will be released. ISM is treated similarly to PMI as a leading indicator of the economy. With concerns about recession, PMI that measures the economy ahead is in focus.

3) Turkish Lira

This is a quick update, so accuracy may be limited, but it appears President Erdogan's AKP party is struggling. For now, there is no change in the Turkish lira, but it is a situation where a sudden shift could occur at any time. In particular, Erdogan, who has fallen behind in the elections, may take some further drastic action.

There are reports that liquidity of the Turkish lira is tightening. In a sharp drop, stops may not be filled, and trades could be executed at prices lower than expected. Exercise caution when handling the Turkish lira.

◎ Today's Event Schedule

April 1 (Monday)

UK Parliament-led Brexit Alternatives Vote

Japan to announce the new era name

06:30 AUD Manufacturing PMI

08:50 JPY BOJ Short-Term Outlook (Outlook for Economy)

09:30 AUD NAB Business Confidence

10:45 CNYCaixin Manufacturing PMI

15:30 SEK Sweden Manufacturing PMI

16:00 NOK Norway Manufacturing PMI

16:45 EURItaly Manufacturing PMI

16:50 EURFrance Manufacturing PMI

16:55 EURGermany Manufacturing PMI

17:00 EUREuro Area Manufacturing PMI

17:30 GBPManufacturing PMI

18:00 EUR Eurozone HICP (Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices)

21:30 USDRetail Sales

22:45 USD Manufacturing PMI

23:00 USDISM Manufacturing Index

April 2 (Tuesday)

04:10 CADPoloz's speech as BOC Governor

09:30 AUD Building Permits

12:30 AUDPolicy Rate/Statement Release