[Path to Dream_FX_Main Currencies_Rate Environment Awareness and Memorandum_20260405]
April 5th, Sunday.
Hello.
It’s a warm Sunday with cloudy skies.
There’s a sense of being muggy
and it feels like spring.
I’m thinking of doing yard work outdoors
and weeding the garden,
but I don’t know if I’ll have free time.
Now, during Easter holidays
the market is mostly flat,
and I think it won’t move on Monday either,
so I have time to ponder carefully, which is lucky.
How far will the Tokyo market move alone?
That will be Monday’s theme.
Now, let’s confirm.
The numbers are at the close of the daily chart.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly candle count: 16th / 13
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 22nd / 13
Weekly volatility: 184 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 16th / 7
4HC: 2nd cycle, 26th / 13
We interpret it this way.
I have changed the starting point of the daily chart to view it differently.
Indeed, it seems the U.S. dollar is strong.
Along with rising crude oil prices
the market is being swept by the petrodollar.
Monday is a non-trade day due to Easter holidays.
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20260405_FX_Market_Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/ODcJUtBdhis
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 20th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 29th / 29
Weekly volatility: 218 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 48th / 44
4HC: 4th cycle, 67th / 38 or
4HC: 5th cycle, 16th / 14
We interpret it this way.
From a broad perspective, the bias is higher,
but we see a market where we don’t know what will happen.
Interventions or some events could
bring a hald-primary cycle (HPC) second
bearish run.
We are considering two scenarios up and down.
If trading is only in Tokyo, Monday could still be possible.
There would likely be genuine demand for U.S. dollars.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 16th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 22nd / 13
Weekly volatility: 187 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 16th / 7 or
Daily: 3rd cycle, 4th / 2
4HC: 1st or 2nd, 24th / 12
We interpret it this way.
Daily chart’s levels are tricky, but
we still see a downside bias either way.
The U.S. dollar is strong, it seems.
I’d like to wait and see how it moves on Tuesday long after the open.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 20th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 36th / 26 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 8th
Weekly volatility: 190 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 37th / 10
4HC: 4th cycle, 26th / 24
We interpret it this way.
The U.S. dollar is strong,
EUR/USD is declining,
USD/JPY is stagnant,
EUR/JPY would trend lower.
If GBP/USD’s bearish move influences EUR/USD,
it would mean the dollar has a clear edge.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 21st
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 35th / 27 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 7th / 4
Weekly volatility: 290 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 34th / 17
4HC: 4th cycle, 20th / 7
We interpret it this way.
The bearish candle in GBP/USD is strong,
and if USD/JPY does not rise,
GBP/JPY will move downward.
The dollar crosses may form bearish candles,
USD/JPY may trade in a range,
which could be a scenario for
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 13th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 33rd / 30 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 7th / 4
Weekly volatility: 155 pips
Daily: 1st or 4th, 35th / 18
4HC: 4th cycle, 20th / 17
We interpret it this way.
The decline in AUD/USD seems linked to the fall in US stocks.
In a risk-off scenario, the Australian dollar is sold,
and if USD/JPY remains in a range,
AUD/JPY will be influenced by AUD/USD.
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20260405_FX_Market_Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/ODcJUtBdhis
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US10Y 4.309 -0.28%
DJI 46504 -61 dollars
US500 -0.3%
WTI 103.555 dollars
BRN 109.03 dollars
Nikkei 225 53,123 yen +660
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