【Episode 4】The reason the result is the opposite even though they have the same shape
【Episode 4】The Reason Why Results Are Completely Reversed Even with the Same Shape
Introduction: From here, we’ll talk about “results”
By this point, you should be able to see things to some extent.
- A single chart is not complete
- There are reasons why the results change even with the same shape
- The cause lies in the parts that are “not visible”
So what happens to the people who notice this?
This time, simply put,
“How the results change”
We’ll focus only on this.
Compare two trades
First, I’ll use my past trades as examples.
Case ①: The usual entry
- Chart shape: good
- Timing: no issue
- Indicators: aligned
This is what you’d call “ textbook-like”
At this time, I didn’t hesitate.
“This will be a win.”
The result is──
Small profit → Against move → Stop loss
A common pattern.
Case ②: An entry that met a certain condition
A shape similar to before.
Similar timing.
But there was one difference.
That was,
“in alignment with the surrounding moves.”
This time, conversely,
I had a feeling like,
“This won’t miss.”
The result is──
Rises with almost no stress
What was different?
The chart shape is almost the same.
The timing doesn’t change much either.
But the results are completely opposite.
Only one thing differed.
“Whether they were in sync or not”
This “sync” is not obvious at first glance.
But it certainly exists.
And when this sync exists,
trading becomes remarkably simple.
Elimination of wasted trades
The biggest change is this.
The moments where you don’t need to act become clear
Previously,
- Entered somehow
- Entered when it seemed possible
- Entered while hesitating
There were many such trades.
But now it’s different.
The reasons to enter become clear
- If they’re in sync → enter
- If they’re not in sync → don’t do it
That’s all.
One important premise here
There is something I don’t want you to misunderstand here.
That is,
“If they’re in sync, you will win”
is not what this means.
Understand trading as “loss-cutting is a given”
No matter how many conditions are aligned,
you will still lose sometimes.
- The market moves by probabilities
- Unexpected moves will always occur
- There is no such thing as a perfect entry
In other words,
loss-cutting is a given, not something to be avoided.
Then what changes?
This is important.
Before
- Entered in subtle situations
- More losing trades
- Many losses from stop-outs
Now
- Exclude situations where conditions aren’t aligned
- Reduce unnecessary stop-outs
- Only meaningful losses remain
The quality of stop-outs changes
This is the biggest change.
Earlier,
“Entered, and lost for no particular reason.”
Now,
“A loss that occurred under aligned conditions and is within expectations.”
This difference
is quite large.
A state where you can accept a loss
People who trade consistently do not win all the time.
They are composed of “losses they can accept.”
When you reach this state,
- Your mental state doesn’t collapse
- Wasteful revenge trades disappear
- Overall stability increases
Winning rate didn’t dramatically increase
This is often misunderstood, but
your win rate did not dramatically rise.
“The total amount of losses decreased”
But this is the most effective part.
When this feeling sinks in,
trading changes all at once.
- Capital doesn’t shrink
- You don’t panic
- You don’t enter under pressure
As a result,
wins remain
The meaning of “doing nothing” changes
Now, let’s return to Episode 1.
The “day of doing nothing”
Before
Anxiety
Now
A day that is better not to act
Just being able to judge this changes how your capital declines.
There are days in the market you should not do anything
Trading isn’t something you do every day.
It’s something you do only when the conditions are aligned.
Just having this view massively changes the quality of trading.
However, you’ll hit a wall here
After reading up to this point, you may think
“If you understand it, you wouldn’t struggle.”
That’s true.
The real problem begins here.
Even if you understand, you can’t reproduce it
Once you feel the “sync,”
you’ll be able to roughly sense it.
But──
- Not every time can you judge it
- You won’t be confident
- It fluctuates
In short,
“There is no reproducibility”
Human limits
- You cannot see multiple things at once
- Judgments waver
- Emotions come into play
Even if you understand, you don’t stabilize...
Preview of the next episode
Next time is the final episode.
Theme:
“The problem is not that you don’t understand, but that you can’t see it.”
- Why can’t you reproduce it
- Why does it wobble
- How can you stabilize
Finally
If you’ve read this far and feel this way, you’re very close.
- Want to reduce unnecessary stop-outs
- Want to stop losing consecutively
- Want to trade with stability
The answer is already visible.
But there’s still one thing missing.
Everything will be connected in the next.
Trading isn’t about “where you enter,” but about
“where not to enter”
This is where everything is decided.