【Episode 4】Why the results are exactly opposite even though the shapes are the same
【Episode 4】The Reason Why The Result Is the Exact Opposite Despite The Same Shape
Introduction: From here, we talk about the “results”
By this point, you should have glimpsed things to some extent.
- A single chart is not complete
- There are reasons why the result can change even with the same shape
- Those causes lie in the parts that are “not visible”
So what happens to those who notice this?
This time, simply put,
“How the results change”
We’ll focus only on this here.
Compare two trades
First, I’ll use my past trades as examples.
Case ①: The usual entry
- Chart shape: good
- Timing: no problem
- Indicators: aligned
So-called “ textbook entry”
At that time I didn’t hesitate.
“This will be taken.”
The result was──
Small profit → against move → stop-out
It’s a common pattern.
Case ②: An entry that met a certain condition
A similar shape.
Similar timing.
But there was one difference.
That was,
“in sync with the surrounding movement.”
This time, conversely,
There was a feeling of,
“This won’t miss.”
The result was──
Almost no stress, it grows
What was different?
The chart shape is almost the same.
Timing doesn’t change much.
But the results were completely opposite.
The only difference was one thing.
“Whether it was in sync or not”
This “in-sync-ness” is not obvious at a glance.
But it certainly exists.
And when this alignment exists,
trading becomes incredibly simple.
Elimination of pointless trades
The biggest change is this.
The scene where you shouldn’t trade becomes clear
Previously,
- Entering somewhat randomly
- Entering because it seemed possible
- Entering while hesitating
These kinds of trades were common.
But now it’s different.
The reasons for entering become clear
- If in-sync → enter
- If not in-sync → don’t do it
That’s all.
One important premise here
There’s something I don’t want you to misunderstand here.
That is,
“If it’s in-sync, you will win.”
This is not what I mean.
Understand trading as “loss cutting is a given”.
No matter how many conditions align,
you still lose sometimes.
- The market moves by probability
- Unforeseen moves will always occur
- There is no perfectly entry
In other words,
loss-cutting is a given, not something to be avoided.
So what changes?
This is important.
Previously
- Entered even in slight conditions
- More losing trades
- More loss-cutting instances
Now
- Eliminate situations where conditions aren’t met
- Reduce useless loss-cutting
- Only meaningful losses cut
The quality of loss-cutting changes
This is the biggest change.
Earlier, loss-cutting was
“entered randomly and lost”
Now, loss-cutting is
“a predictable loss under aligned conditions”
This difference
is quite significant.
A state where you can accept a loss
People whose trading stabilizes are not necessarily winning all the time.
They are composed of “losses they can accept.”
When you reach this state,
- Mental state doesn’t collapse
- Unnecessary revenge trading disappears
- Overall stability increases
Winning rate didn’t increase
This is easy to misinterpret, but
the win rate didn’t dramatically improve.
“Total amount of losses decreased”
But this is the most effective thing.
When this feeling sinks in,
trading changes all at once.
- Capital doesn’t shrink
- No rushing
- No forcing entries
As a result,
the wins stay
The meaning of “doing nothing” changes
Here, let’s return to Episode 1
The “day of doing nothing”
Previously
Anxiety
Now
“A day when it’s better not to trade”
Just being able to judge that changes how capital declines.
There are days in the market you should not trade
Trading isn’t something you do every day.
You should only do it when the conditions are right.
Simply keeping this view changes the quality of trading.
However, you may hit a wall here
After reading up to here, you might think
“If that’s the case, it wouldn’t be hard.”
That’s right.
The real problem starts here.
Even if you understand it, you can’t reproduce it
Once you’ve felt the alignment even once,
you’ll kind of understand it.
But──
- You can’t judge it every time
- You can’t be confident
- It wobbles
In short,
“reproducibility is not guaranteed.”
The limits of humans
- We can’t see multiple things at once
- Judgments waver
- Emotions influence us
Even when you understand it, you don’t stabilize…
Next episode teaser
Next time is the final episode.
Theme:
“The problem is not that you can’t see it, but that you can’t look”
- Why can’t you reproduce it
- Why do you waver
- How can you stabilize
In conclusion
If you’ve read this far and feel the following, you’re close.
- You want to reduce unnecessary losses
- - You want to stop the losing streak
- - You want stable trading
The answer is already visible.
However, one thing is still missing.
Everything will connect in the next part.
Trading is not about “where you enter,” but about
“where you do not enter.”
This is where everything is decided.