【Episode 4】Why the Same-Shaped Pattern Can Have the Opposite Result

Introduction: From here, we’ll talk about the “results”

By now, you should have a fairly clear picture.

• A chart isn’t complete with just one image
• There are reasons why the same shape can lead to different results
• The cause lies in the part that isn’t visible

So, what happens to those who notice this?

This time, simply put,

“How the results change”

We’ll focus only on this.

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Compare two trades

First, I will use my past trades as examples.

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Case ①: The usual entry

• Chart shape: good
• Timing: no problem
• Indicators: aligned

What is often called “ textbook-perfect”

At that time, I didn’t hesitate.

“This will be taken.”

The result was──

Small profit → against move → stop out

A common pattern.

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Case ②: Entry that met a certain condition

Similar shape.

Similar timing.

But there was one difference.

That is,

“in line with the surrounding movements.”

This time, conversely,

I had a feeling like,

“I won’t miss this one.”

The result was──

Rises almost without stress

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What was different?

The chart shape is almost the same.

Timing doesn’t change much either.

But the result is the exact opposite.

Only one thing was different.

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“Whether it was in sync or not”

This “synchronization” is

not obvious at a glance.

But it certainly exists.

And when this synchrony is present,

trading becomes astonishingly simple.

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Eliminating unnecessary trades

The biggest change is this.

“Moments you don’t need to trade” become clear

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Previously,

• Entering somewhat randomly
• Entering when it seems like it might work
• Entering while hesitating

These kinds of trades happened often.

But now it’s different.

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The reasons for entering become clear

• In sync → enter
• Not in sync → don’t trade

That’s all there is to it.

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One important premise here

There is something I don’t want to cause misunderstanding about here.

That is,

“If they are in sync, you will win”

is not the point.

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Understand trading as “loss-cutting as a baseline”

No matter how many conditions line up,

you can still lose as usual.

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• The market moves by probability
• Unexpected moves will inevitably happen
• There is no such thing as a perfect entry

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In other words,

loss-cutting is a given, not something to be avoided.

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Then what changes?

This is important.

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Before

• Entering in subtle situations
• More losing trades
• More frequent loss cuts

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Now

• Eliminating situations where conditions aren’t met
• Fewer wasted loss cuts
• Only “meaningful losses” remain

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The quality of loss-cutting changes

This is the biggest change.

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Previously, loss-cutting was

“entered and lost for no particular reason”

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Now, loss-cutting is

“a contained loss where the conditions were in place”

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This difference

is quite large.

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A state where you can accept a loss

People who trade calmly are not necessarily winning all the time.

They are composed of “losses they can accept.”

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Once you reach this state,

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• Your mental state doesn’t collapse
• Unnecessary revenge trading disappears
• You become overall stable
• 
  

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Winning rate didn’t actually go up

This is a common misconception, but

your win rate didn’t dramatically increase.

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“The total amount of losses decreased”

But this is what matters most.

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It’s not that you are “winning,” but that you are “not losing.”

This realization makes trading shift dramatically.

You won’t deplete capital

You won’t panic

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• You won’t take reckless entries

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As a result,

your gains stay

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The meaning of days when you do nothing changes

Now, go back to Episode 1.

“A day of doing nothing”

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Before
Anxiety

Now
“A day when not doing is better”

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With this judgment alone, the rate of capital decline changes.

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There are days in the market you should not trade

Trading is not something you do every day.

It is something you do only when the conditions are met.

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Just adopting this perspective can greatly change the quality of trading.

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But here you may hit a wall

After reading up to this point, you may think

“If I understood that, I wouldn’t be struggling.”

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That’s true.

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The real problem starts now.

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Even if you understand, you can’t reproduce

Once you’ve felt the synchrony even once,

you’ll start to grasp it intuitively.

But──

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• You can’t judge it every time
• You can’t be confident
• Your judgment wobbles

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In short,

“reproducibility is lacking”

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Human limits

• We cannot see multiple things at once
• Judgments wobble
• Emotions get involved

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Even when you understand, you can’t stay stable…

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Preview of next time

Next time is the final episode.

Theme:

“The problem is not that you can’t see, but that you can’t see even when you understand”

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• Why can’t it be reproduced
• Why does it wobble
• How can you stabilize

In conclusion

If you’ve read this far and feel this, you’re fairly close.

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• Want to reduce unnecessary losses
• Want to stop losing streaks
• Want to trade stably

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The answer is already visible.

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However, one piece is still missing.

Everything will connect in the next part.

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Trading is not about “where to enter,” but

“where not to enter.”

This is where everything is decided.