$4580——This morning GOLD is exactly glued to that line.

If you felt, “If I break through here, it’s up,” I thought the same.

But in today’s article, I’ll give you the reasons to put brakes on that feeling.

The current price is around $4580. Since the sharp drop around March 19, it has been gradually recovering.

On the 1-hour chart, EMA20 (short-term moving average) is 4533, EMA75 (mid-term moving average) is 4500, with short- and mid-term averages turning upward. RSI (an indicator of overbought/oversold) is currently 64, up significantly from 52.78 three hours ago, indicating a short-term bullish momentum.

However, the EMA200 (long-term moving average) on the 1-hour chart sits around $4580, weighing on the current upside.

In short, the rebound is happening, but it has just reached the “big-picture resistance” in this morning’s GOLD.

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make your own trading decisions.

In the past, I would decide to buy when the short-term averages lined up, only to be stopped by the long-term moving-average wall. Today’s GOLD is seen as having that risk level.

If $4580–$4590 clearly breaks above and holds, the next target would be to surpass the previous day’s high and move above EMA200, entering a world above that level. A genuine recovery trend would then begin.

On the other hand, if price is pushed back around $4580 and falls below $4535 (EMA20), it could push toward $4500 (EMA75) and even toward the previous day’s low near $4420. Although the 1H EMA sequence is “EMA20 > EMA75,” EMA200 remains above, so it is a recovery phase but not a confirmed uptrend—I judge it as such.

Since there is no point meeting RR1.5 today, I will refrain from entering. The following is for reference.

I calculated a pullback buy zone for reference, but the expected RR is 0.84. Since it does not reach RR1.0, I will not publish a reference entry today.

Don’t rush; wait for the next opportunity.

Resistance 1: $4580 (previous day high, coinciding with 1H EMA200)

Support 1: $4535 (1H EMA20)

Support 2: $4500 (1H EMA75)

Support 3: $4420 (previous day low)

1H EMA200: $4580 (currently the toughest barrier)

“A reason for hesitation that lacks a basis cannot be called a basis.”

This article is personal analysis and does not constitute investment advice or solicitation. Please make your own trading decisions.

If you found it helpful, a follow would be appreciated and encouraging.

For questions or impressions, feel free to leave a comment.