[Today’s Market] March 30 — Geopolitical risks flare up, broad decline ahead
The Tokyo market on the 30th saw selling across a wide range of sectors right after the opening.
The Nikkei Stock Average ended the session at 51,885 yen, down 1,487 yen from the previous day, indicating a broad-based decline.
In the U.S. market the previous day, concerns about the Middle East intensifying and prolonging the situation grew after reports of additional U.S. troop deployments,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average・the Nasdaq Compositeboth fell.
Following this trend, the Tokyo market opened with continued selling,
・Dollar/Yen moved into the 160 range
・Crude oil prices rose again into the $100 range
・Concerns over the deterioration of the Middle East situation
and other factors converged, leading to a selling spree at the open.
Trading began with a soft tone, but in the morning the finance minister said
“strong actions may also be necessary.”
Following this, the exchange rate briefly swung into the 159 yen range,
and the stock market also saw a slight narrowing of losses at times.
However, that trend did not last long.
With Iran's situation hinting at an possible invasion operation,
the outlook remains highly uncertain,
and the market close remained limited in its gains.
◆ Today’s Market Summary
・Nikkei: down sharply by 1,487 yen to 51,885 yen
・U.S. market fell on Middle East concerns
・Dollar/Yen around 160, and crude oil rose into the $100 range
・Temporary rebound from the finance minister’s remarks, but no sustainability
・Overall market favored selling
◆ Investor Note
When exchange rates, oil, and geopolitics move simultaneously, the market tends to swing in one direction.
Especially in situations like this, where an “upcoming phase” such as an amphibious operation is being anticipated,
it is necessary to plan for volatility itself rather than focusing on short-term rebounds.
What’s important now is
・Buy when it has fallen
・Sell when it seems scary
instead of making emotional decisions,
“How should I position myself given this situation as within expectations?”
is the question to ask.
Tomorrow and beyond, there is a high possibility of large swings depending on the situation, so there is no need to force actions.
First, it is important to increase cash holdings and stay prepared for sudden market moves.