【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Recognition and Memo_20260329】 - Navi+ - GogoJungle | Auto Trading - Market Analysis

March 29, Sunday.

Hello.

In the southern Kanto region, the forecast is mostly sunny.
It's a good day for hanami, but
I’m continuing to be a “shut-in person” due to a double punch of pollen allergy and a cold.
.

It’s unavoidable, isn’t it?

Now, I checked the market technically,
and it still feels like the US dollar is being sold off.

However, if the conflict continues,
it may break the starting point as it is
and I view where the Middle East conflict will settle
as a major point.

Now, let’s confirm.
The numbers are at the timing of the daily chart close.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 15th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 3rd bar
Weekly volatility: 155 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 11th bar / 7
4H cohesive count (4HC) 1st cycle, 61 bars / 36

I perceive it this way.

If the daily 1st cycle holds,
there is a possibility of continuing to set new highs.

When 4HC closes and transitions,
the rise in 4HC2 comes into view, but
the petrodollar is causing
the US dollar to be bought.

I view Monday as a high probability reversal day.

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20260329_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/XsWUrISsg5o
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 19th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 28th / 28
Weekly volatility: 239 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC2, 43rd / 43
4HC: 4th cycle, 37th / 36

I view it this way.

If you only consider the daily cycle,
it’s unlikely to be a normal MC,
and a half-primary cycle (HPC) possibility
is high.

Somewhere a bearish candle will form,
and how far it will fall afterward
is the key.

Could that be the daily switch?

【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 15th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 21st / 13
Weekly volatility: 222 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 11th / 7
4HC: 1st cycle, 61 bars / 36

I view it this way.

The US dollar is in a buying chart.
If it breaks the starting point as is,
I will consider a scenario change.

Would it rebound?
That is Monday’s market view.

【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 20nd
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 35th / 26 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 7th
Weekly volatility: 147 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 32nd / 10
4HC: 3rd cycle, 58th / 57

I perceive it this way.

Cross-yen is in a tug-of-war between USD/JPY and the dollar index.

Although 4HC seems already closed,
if the future decline of USD/JPY can be expected
it is likely to pull that pair as well.

【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 20th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 34th / 27 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 6th / 4
Weekly volatility: 172 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 29th / 17
4HC: 3rd cycle, 39th / 13

I view it this way.

Like EUR/JPY,
it never falls below the 4-hour EMA75
and even if it falls, it tends to rebound.

【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 12th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 32nd / 30 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 6th / 4
Weekly volatility: 215 pips
Daily: 1st or 4th, 30th / 18
4HC: 3rd cycle, 39th / 6

I perceive it this way.

The Australian dollar has turned risk-off, so
the US stock market has fallen
and the AUD is being sold.

The decline in AUD/USD
is larger than the rise in USD/JPY,
creating bearish candles.

It seems different from other cross-yens.

****************************
20260329_FX_MarketEnvironment_VideoCommentary
https://youtu.be/XsWUrISsg5o
*****************************

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US10Y 4.428 +0.36%
DJI 45,166 dollars -793
US500 -2.07%
WTI 98.695 dollars
BRN 105.32 dollars
Nikkei 225 53,373 yen -230

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