[Episode 3] What is it that only an excellent trader can see?
【Chapter 3】 Just One Chart Is “Incomplete”
What is visible only to excellent traders?
Introduction:
We will touch a little on the true nature of the unease.
In the previous content, you should have noticed a certain unease.
- Losing despite the same shape
- Collapsing in a scene where you should win
- The cause isn’t clear
And it may not be just a lack of technique.
From here on, we will touch on the true nature of that unease.
However──
If you try to understand everything all at once, you’ll end up unable to see it.
So this time,“Just grasp the outline of the answer.”
Charts are not “completed information”
Charts that many people look at.
Candlesticks, indicators, lines.
At first glance, it seems complete with just those.
But in reality, it’s different.
That chart is still “information in progress.”
Why is it “in progress”
For example, the upward move you’re seeing.
Is it really being bought?
Or──
“Only rising relative to others being sold”
Do you consciously notice this difference?
Same rise, but the inside is different
Here lies a big trap.
Even if the rise looks the same on the chart,
- A truly strong rise
- A fake rise
exist.
And the problem is
that you cannot distinguish them on a single chart.
A day's realization
The moment you entered previously.
The pattern was perfect.
- Retracement
- Continuation of the trend
- Indicators aligned
There was no reason to hesitate.
But the result was a loss.
At that moment, a sense of unease arose.
“This rise feels odd.”
What you are looking at is “insufficient”
The true nature of that unease was
“a misalignment.”
But that misalignment
was not inside the chart.
It was outside the chart.
The unseen “balance”
The market looks like it moves on its own, but in reality it is always within balance.
Strong things
- Weak things
This relationship drives price movement.
In other words,
the movement you’re watching is always the result of a relationship with something.
Limits of a single chart
One important point here.
No matter how much you analyze,
no matter how much accuracy you improve,
there is a limit to the information you can obtain from one chart.
Why you lose
Back to the previous question.
Why do you lose in a “winning-looking” setup?
The answer is simple.
“Because the premise is off.”
What is the Premise
Here, the premise means
- the direction of the market
- the balance of strength and weakness
- the overall flow
these sorts of foundational elements.
When this foundation is off,
no matter how pretty the setup,──
the trade on top of it collapses.
What excellent traders are looking at
Then,
what do excellent traders look at?
They look at the
environment, before the chart’s “shape.”
They look at the “environment.”
When the environment isn’t aligned
Here, I’ll go a little deeper.
When certain conditions aren’t aligned,
no matter how good the setup is,
trades won’t work.
Rather,
the more you try, the more you lose.
Why doing nothing matters
Because there is a reason for “days of doing nothing.”
It isn’t that you’re not doing anything,
you are discerning situations where you should not act.
But there is a problem.
If you understand up to here, you’ll hit the next wall.
That is,
“How exactly do you determine that?”
Difference between those who can see and those who cannot
This “environment” and “balance” can be understood in an instant by those who can see it.
But for those who can’t,
they won’t see it for a long time.
Because,
it isn’t just a simple technique.
One hint.
Here is a single hint.
That judgment comes from
not a single chart, but
the alignment of multiple movements.
Even so, it is still not enough
This isn’t the end.
Even if you notice that relationship,
the next problem arises.
Humans have limits.
- Cannot watch multiple things at once
- Judgments waver
- Emotions come into play
In other words,
even if you understand it, you cannot reproduce it.
Next time【Chapter 3】Preview
Next time,
“What happens if you only trade when correlations align?”
We’ll discuss it based on actual results.
Finally
If you’ve read this far and feel even a little of the following, it’s important.
- It feels like the chart alone isn’t enough
- The cause of losses seems external
- You feel you’re missing something
That feeling is correct.
However,
you still haven’t seen everything yet.
If you move on,
points will begin to connect.
In trading, it isn’t about where you enter, but
“where not to enter.”
That is where everything is decided.