End of fiscal year turmoil anticipated in the UK and Turkey! ~ Highlights on March 29 and event schedule ~

For the British pound and the UK, it was a day filled with opacity, but selling gradually persisted throughout the day. With reports of progress in the U.S.-China ministerial-level trade talks, risk-off flows eased somewhat and the dollar/yen rose! Also, the Turkish lira has been volatile due to statements by President Erdogan.

◎ Today's Highlights

1) UK Parliament - Brexit Bill Vote

Today is the Brexit deadline. The UK Parliament remains shrouded in uncertainty, but a third vote on the Brexit bill is expected to be held today. Prime Minister May is said to have secured support in exchange for her resignation, but it is still expected not to pass.

The focus on this vote is: “What revisions are being made to the withdrawal bill and what changes have been added?!”, “Will it be rejected or approved?!”, “If rejected, what will be the margin of victory for the opposition?”, “What will happen to Prime Minister May’s position?”, “Is it a hard Brexit without a deal?”, “Will Parliament-led votes and a revote occur?”, etc.

There are many points of attention, which likely means a high level of uncertainty. In terms of timing, please note 24:00 Japan time for the voting, and 04:00 for the result.

2) U.S.-China Ministerial Trade Talks

Since yesterday, ministerial-level U.S.-China trade talks have resumed. There are reports of progress, easing risk-off sentiment. However, some say the issue of intellectual property rights remains a sticking point.

There are frequent reports that U.S.-China relations are progressing, but history shows they often end in a breakdown. This time too, irreconcilable differences on intellectual property rights could lead to a final breakdown.

I will pay attention to the headlines.

3) Turkish Lira

The Turkish lira is becoming more volatile. Emails warning traders from various brokerage, FX companies have arrived.

The “X-date” for the Turkish lira may be this weekend. There is also a possibility of a gap opening at the start of the week, so I want to carefully adjust weekend positions.

Personally, I don’t recommend holding positions overnight as stops may not trigger.

If you would like, please also see below↓↓↓

Will April 1st (Monday) bring a Turkish shock again? Be cautious of gaps!!

◎ Today's Economic Calendar

Friday, March 29

UK/ EU Brexit Deadline

Third vote on the withdrawal bill

U.S.-China ministerial-level trade talks (final day)

09:01 GBP GfK Consumer Confidence

16:00 EUR Germany Retail Sales

16:45 EURFrance HICP (Consumer Price Index)

17:00 EURSpain GDP

17:55 EURGermany Unemployment Rate

18:30 GBPUK GDP

18:45 EUR Kuijer ECB official remarks

19:00 EURItaly HICP (Consumer Price Index)

19:00 EUREuro Area HICP (Consumer Price Index)

21:30 CADCanada GDP

01:45 USDFed Vice Chair Lael Brainard remarks

02:00 USD Baker Hughes Rig Count