New NISA widening inequality!? In 2026, the "have-nots" will regret for life, common traits of the winning investors

The year 2026, when looked back on later, may become a year that many people realize “that moment was a turning point.”

When you read economic news, Nikkei stock average movements and the yen exchange rate topics come up almost daily. On social media, some say “If you don’t invest now, you’ll miss out,” while others hear “There’s a smell of a bubble” or “Will it keep falling like this?” Information is overflowing, but you don’t know what to do. In this state, time just passes by.

In fact, this “time spent doing nothing” is the biggest cause of widening asset gaps gradually.

If you use the word gap, it might sound a bit sensational. But this isn’t sensationalism; it’s the mathematical fact of compound interest. The speed at which money grows varies astonishingly depending on when you start. Even if two people start at different ages—one in their 20s and one in their 40s—saving the same amount by the same method, the final asset amount can differ by more than double. This has nothing to do with effort or intelligence. It’s all about “when you started.”

And the new NISA system started in 2024 has the potential to widen this “time gap” even further.

Why is the New NISA so talked about? To understand that, you first need to start with Japan’s tax system.

Normally, when you earn profits from stocks or investment trusts, about 20.315% tax is charged on those profits. If you have a profit of 1 million yen, more than 200,000 yen will be taken as tax. What remains is about 800,000 yen. This is Japan’s usual taxation on investments.

However, under the New NISA, this tax becomes zero. If you earn 1 million yen profit, the entire 1 million yen remains in your hands. The long-term impact of this difference grows increasingly with time.

For example, if you invest 50,000 yen per month with an annual return of 5% for 30 years, the principal total is 18 million yen. But if that is invested, after 30 years it would be about 41 million yen. The amount that increased is about 23 million yen. If normal taxation applied to that growth, about 4.7 million yen would disappear as tax. With New NISA, that 4.7 million yen remains as your own asset.

The same 50,000 yen per month, the same 30 years, the same return on investment. Yet the final take-home could differ by as much as 4.7 million yen. That is the difference between using or not using New NISA.

Moreover, New NISA has a lifetime investment limit of 18 million yen, and the period is unlimited. The old NISA had time limits of 5 years or 20 years, but New NISA has no such limits. Assets held under tax exemption can be kept tax-free indefinitely unless you sell them.

Between those who benefit from such schemes and those who haven’t started yet, a quiet gap is beginning to form now.

Then why, despite such advantageous制度s, do many people not start?

There is a clear reason. The human brain is wired to fear losing money in hand more than unseen risks. In behavioral economics this is called the loss aversion bias. People feel the pain of losing money about twice as strongly as the pleasure of gaining the same amount.

The joy of increasing by 10,000 yen through investment feels smaller than the pain of losing 10,000 yen. That is why many choose not to start.

But there is a big pitfall: what you lose by not starting does exist.

If you leave money in the bank, it doesn’t appear to decrease on the surface. The passbook numbers don’t change. But in reality, the value of money gradually erodes due to inflation. Prices rose in Japan from 2023 to 2024, with costs of food, utilities, and dining out soaring. What cost 1,000,000 yen today might require 1,200,000 yen ten years from now.

Money lying dormant in the bank is not “safe”; it is “losing value slowly.”

Not investing means you have no risk. Many people think that, but in reality they bear invisible risk daily—inflation risk. There is already a large awareness gap between those who recognize this and those who do not.

So what do people who increase their assets actually think and do?

Investor veterans who have built up wealth over many years share a common mindset. It isn’t special knowledge or talent. It’s surprisingly plain and simple, almost underwhelming.

First, they don’t seek the “perfect timing.”

When the market is high, they say “now is too high; let’s wait a little.” When it falls, they say “it will probably fall further, so let’s wait.” People with this pattern can never start. Even economists and professional fund managers cannot accurately predict market tops and bottoms. For a non-expert to try to read them is impossible from the start.

That’s why wise investors act with the idea that “today is the youngest day of the rest of your life.” There is no perfect timing. So start today. That’s all.

Next, they prioritize “continuing.”

The essence of installment investing lies in persistence more than the amount. Even if you contribute 10,000 or 30,000 yen a month, the power of compounding begins to work as you continue. Compounding is where profits generate more profits. This power, sometimes said to be Einstein’s greatest invention, grows exponentially the longer the time horizon. To maximize it, the only way is to keep at it for a long time.

For example, investing 1 million yen at 5% annual return, after 10 years you have about 1.63 million, after 20 years about 2.65 million, after 30 years about 4.32 million. The first decade grows by 630,000; the next decade adds 1.02 million, and the following decade adds 1.67 million—the growth accelerates. The key is to sustain it for as long as possible.

And third, they don’t fear crashes; they actually welcome them.

During the COVID-19 shock in 2020, the Nikkei average fell more than 30% in weeks. Many individual investors panicked and sold, locking in losses. Those who continued investing or bought more during that time earned large returns when the market recovered sharply later.

The same happened during the Lehman Brothers crisis. From 2008 to 2009, world stock markets nearly halved. But over the next ten years, the S&P 500 rose more than fivefold. Falls are frightening in the short term, but over the long term they are a bargain. Whether you can adopt this view greatly changes how your assets grow.

Of course, investment carries the risk of losing principal. The amount invested may temporarily decrease. That is a fact. However, using a long-term diversified accumulation method has historically greatly reduced this risk.

For example, the S&P 500, a representative U.S. stock index, has delivered an average annual return of about 10% from 1928 to the present. There have been Lehman, COVID, IT bubble collapses, yet those who held long-term continued to see their assets grow. This is one of the most important grounds for considering investment.

Among investments commonly used with Japan’s new NISA is eMAXIS Slim All-Country World Equity, known as Orcan, which allows diversified investment across the world including Japan, with very low fees and is beginner-friendly. Similarly, many investors support index funds linked to the S&P 500.

There is ongoing debate about which is correct, but both have long-term wealth-building power. Rather than chasing a perfect product, it is far more important to start and continue.

On the other hand, there are common patterns among those whose assets do not grow.

They keep studying but struggle to begin. They read books, watch YouTube, gather information on social media, but cannot take the step to actually open an account and deposit money.

This state can be called “information collection addiction.” By accumulating knowledge, they may feel they are investing. But no matter how much knowledge they accumulate, if they do not participate in the market, assets will not grow. It’s like reading a book on swimming but not entering the pool to swim.

Also, people who are easily swayed by others’ stories seldom grow their assets. When online information says “buy X now,” they jump in; when others warn that “X is dangerous,” they become anxious. People who change their actions with every bit of information cannot receive the long-term benefits of investing.

What is required for investment success is not the amount of information, but the ability to decide on your own plan and trust it, then continue.

Now, I want to pose one question.

Where will you be ten years from now, in 2036?

Even if you stay in the same company, same job, and same salary, the person who started asset formation ten years earlier vs. someone who did not may be in a remarkably different situation.

If you invest 50,000 yen per month with 5% annual return for 10 years, the principal of 6 million yen becomes about 7.8 million yen. This is still ten years. If you continue for 20 years, the principal of 12 million yen becomes about 20.5 million yen; if you continue for 30 years, the principal of 18 million yen becomes about 41.6 million yen.

On the other hand, if you put 50,000 yen per month into a regular bank savings account for 30 years, the amount increase from the principal of 18 million yen is almost zero at current interest rates.

This isn’t about a particular person. 50,000 yen per month is a figure accessible to many employees. It might be possible by trimming a bit of monthly dining out, reviewing subscriptions, and reducing eating out once a week.

The question isn’t whether you can do it, but whether you will do it.

The first step to starting investing with New NISA is to open an account with a securities company. With online brokers like SBI Securities or Rakuten Securities, you can complete the procedures on your smartphone, and start trading as soon as the next business day. All you need are your My Number card and identification documents.

After opening the account, apply for a New NISA account and set up monthly contributions. You don’t have to start with an impossible amount. Even if it’s 10,000 or 30,000 yen per month, start with an amount you can continue. The important thing is not the amount but “starting” and “not stopping.”

Investing is not a goal-less marathon. It is a process of nurturing wealth over time while steadily contributing every month. Do not be swayed by crashes. Do not overreact when the market is hot. Keep a steady course. This steady accumulation of small actions will make a big difference in ten or twenty years.

There is meaning in starting now, in 2026, at this very moment.

Because when you look back in 2036 ten years from now, you are likely to think, “Starting then was really worth it.” Conversely, if you do nothing now, all you’ll have in ten years is regret of “I should have started then.”

The most common regret in the world of investing is not “I started too early” but overwhelmingly “I started too late.”

Please start now. The amount doesn’t matter. Even 10,000 yen per month is fine. The important thing is to participate in the market as soon as possible. With that alone, you already stand on the side of people who are growing their assets.

Investing does not require talent. It does not require special knowledge. All you need is one thing: the decision to “start today.”