[Path to Dreams FX Major Currency Market Environment Perception & Memo 20260322]
【Path to Dreams_FX_Main Currencies_Market Environment Awareness & Memo_20260322】
March 23, Monday.
Good morning.
The memo that was planned to be distributed yesterday
will be distributed first thing in the morning.
Because of the Middle East conflict,
and since this week is the week at the end of the month,
there may be periods where movements are meaningless
and caution is needed in trading.
We should calmly verify things step by step.
Crude oil trading is apparently settled in US dollars.
It is called petrodollar.
WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate
and represents the price of oil in the United States,
BRNT refers to Brent crude
and indicates the price of oil trading in the UK or Norway.
Until now, they were roughly at the same level, but
currently WTI is $95 and BRNT is $116,
a gap of about $20 has opened.
WTI crude oil is highly influenced by domestic US demand and inventories,
whereas Brent crude tends to reflect international geopolitical risks.
Oil is causing the market to move significantly, so
it is a good opportunity to study geopolitical risk.
Now, let’s check.
These are the numbers at the daily chart close.
【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 15th candle / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 2nd candle
Weekly volatility: 201 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 6th candle / 5
4H: 1st cycle, 31st candle / 25
I interpret it as such.
It seems that the daily chart has shifted?
I think the switch has occurred.
As 4H 1st,
RT (Light Translation) can be expected,
and
the dollar looks likely to be sold.
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20260322_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/gGVP0PaRBSY
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 19th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 27th / 27
Weekly volatility: 239 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2nd, 38th / 37
4H: 4th cycle, 7th / 7
I interpret it as such.
There is no strong yen appreciation factor, but
if it is a Half Primary Cycle (HPC),
the subsequent candlesticks could be bearish.
Of course, this is a scenario where the US dollar is sold
and the yen does not simply move higher on the basis of the yen itself.
If it breaks above the 160.0 barrier
the scenario may change,
and I would like to look for a double top on the 4-hour chart.
【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 15th
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 20th / 13
Weekly volatility: 242 pips
Daily: 3rd cycle, 6th / 5
4H: 1st cycle, 31st / 25
I interpret it as such.
BOE kept rates unchanged,
pound was bought.
Due to rising crude oil prices
and inflation concerns, expectations of rate cuts
were put on hold,
and movement started.
【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 20th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 34th / 26 or
Weekly cycle 4th, 6th
Weekly volatility: 237 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 27th / 10
4H: 3rd cycle, 28th / 28
I interpret it as such.
Cross-yen seems likely to become difficult.
Since the direction of dollar weakness and yen strength does not align,
the market will follow the moves of whichever side moves more.
Technically, on 4H3,
if USD/JPY declines,
it looks likely to drop.
【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 20th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 33rd / 27 or
Weekly cycle 4th, 5th / 4
Weekly volatility: 196 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 24th / 17
4H: 3rd cycle, 9th / 6
I interpret it as such.
Since the 4H cycle has just shifted, the upward bias is likely.
The rise in GBP/USD will have an impact.
【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 20th
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 33rd / 27 or
Weekly cycle 4th, 5th / 4
Weekly volatility: 196 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 24th / 17
4H: 3rd cycle, 9th / 6
I interpret it as such.
The Australian dollar is affected by the US stock market.
When the US dollar is sold,
a currency weakness occurs,
and when stocks rise, risk-on
causes the Australian dollar to strengthen.
Moreover, the hawkish stance of the RBA, which has raised policy rates,
influences the AUD's strength.
I expect the AUD to remain strong.
Considering the US triple decline,
there may be declines in bonds, stocks, and currencies
and a scenario where the US dollar is sold could be expected.
In that case, the AUD would become the strongest.
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20260322_FX_Market Environment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/gGVP0PaRBSY
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US10Y 4.384 +3.18%
DJI 45,577 points -443
US500 -1.21%
WTI 97.205 dollars
BRN 112.19
Nikkei 225 53,372 yen -1,866
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