[Trace to dreams_FX_major currencies_market environment awareness and memo_20260315]

March 15th, Sunday.

Hello.

It was a good weather day in the south Kanto area,
I watched the WBC
and became a “cocooned person.”

It was a disappointing result, but
there was nothing we could do about it.

With this, I will cancel Netflix.

Now, the Middle East conflict is having a big impact on exchange rates
and gasoline prices are soaring in our lives as well.

Because import-driven inflation is significant
we are watching the outcome of this week's U.S.-Japan summit.

By now, I wonder if Trump might
withdraw,
as ships seem to be moving out from Yokosuka and Nagasaki.

This could be a long battle too?
It looks like a conflict that will make us think so.

In all honesty, I want the war to end.


Now, let's confirm.
These are the counts at the close of the daily chart.
　　

【EUR/USD】
Monthly: 15th bar / 13
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 8th bar / 2LT
Weekly volatility: 256 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 40th bar / 7LT
4HC: 4th cycle, 30th bar / 11LT

as we see it.

We would also like to prepare for a continuing weekly scenario.
If there is a possibility of a further large rise,
it would be a weekly continuation at the 33rd bar.

We would like to confirm the movement after 4HC closes.

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20260315_FX_MarketEnvironment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/m8yxz1zDR9Q
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【USD/JPY】
Monthly: 19th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 26th bar / 26
Weekly volatility: 247 pips
Daily: 3rd or HPC 2, 33rd bar / 33
4HC: 3rd cycle, 65th bar / 65

as we see it.

There is no sign of a yen appreciation.
Even if 4HC switches over
a brief pullback could end it quickly.


If the real demand causes yen weakness,
the Ministry of Finance may not be able to intervene.



【GBP/USD】
Monthly: 15th bar
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 19th bar / 13
Weekly volatility: 264 pips
Daily: 2nd cycle, 40th bar / 7LT
4HC: 4th cycle, 50th bar / 29LT

as we see it.

Since the weekly starting point differs from EUR/USD
it is moving independently,
and if the daily 2nd cycle starting point breaks down,
we may see further USD strength in the future.

Downward bias here.



【EUR/JPY】
Monthly: 20th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 33rd bar / 26 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 5th
Weekly volatility: 182 pips
Daily: 4th or 1st, 22nd bar / 10
4HC: 2nd cycle, 50th bar / 34

as we see it.

The cross yen pairs are driven by a scenario of dollar strength and yen weakness,

and we will follow the more volatile moves.

Last week, EUR/USD moved sharply,
so a bearish candlestick formed.




【GBP/JPY】
Monthly: 20th bar
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 32nd bar / 27 or
Weekly: 4th cycle, 4th / 4
Weekly volatility: 270 pips
Daily: 1st cycle, 19th bar / 17
4HC: 2nd cycle, 60th bar / 43

as we see it.

The downward movement of GBP/USD is active, and it is a tug-of-war with the rise in USD/JPY.


When 4HC switches over and USD/JPY rises,
could a bullish candle appear on the pull? I think so.




【AUD/JPY】
Monthly: 12th bar
Weekly: 2nd cycle, 30th bar / 30 or
Weekly: 3rd cycle, 4th bar / 4
Weekly volatility: 372 pips
Daily: 1st or 4th, 20th bar / 18
4HC: 2nd cycle, 50th bar / 37

as we see it.

When U.S. stocks fall, AUD/USD forms a bearish candle,
and that influence also affects AUD/JPY.


If USD/JPY rises, it could be offsetting, but
in the next 4-hour candles, if AUD/USD breaks below EMA200,
AUD/JPY could also form bearish candles.


****************************
20260315_FX_MarketEnvironment_Video Commentary
https://youtu.be/m8yxz1zDR9Q
*****************************
 
  
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US10Y 4.283 +0.52%
DJI 46,558 dollars -119
US500 -0.86%
WTI 96.965 dollars
Nikkei 225 53,819 yen -633

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Let us learn together.

https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/70675
https://www.gogojungle.co.jp/tools/ebooks/30872


 
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